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25k is less than 1% of most major auto manufacturers yearly production numbers. No article I've read on this news has put that into context and instead praises

25k is less than 1% of most major auto manufacturers yearly production numbers. No article I've read on this news has put that into context and instead praises the legislation as liberating car manufacturers to bring FSD cars to the masses. Most people don't read past the headline let alone look into the facts of the article. Also nothing good EVER gets passed legislation unanimously. Last time the House passed legislation this quickly and unanimously was when they passed SOAPA. Something feels fishy about this. I haven't read the legislation directly but I bet if a journalist went through it fully, somethings would surface that people wouldn't like.

mrhappyunhappy 9y ago
My thoughts exactly. When I read that the vote was unanimous I instantly thought "oh oh, what did they sneak in there".
azernik 9y ago
Given that this is from a base of zero, and the cap is set to rise by 4x to 100k by 2020 (which is when Waymo plans to start introducing driverless cars), I do not think that this is at all a slow pace.
- dayaz36 9y ago
  GM sells sells 10M cars per year so 100k would be 1% of that. Also who's Waymo? Tesla is planning to demonstrate a CA to NY trip with zero human intervention in just a few months and Elon has said they're shooting for 2019 for L5 FSD for their entire fleet made past October 2016 (they've already put in the hardware necessary for FSD so when the software is ready a simple OTA software update is all that's necessary for you're car to have full L5 autonomy)
  - euyyn 9y ago
    > Also who's Waymo? You serious? It's Google's self-driving car company.
    - dayaz36 9y ago
      Was being sarcastic. Googles been working on their self driving cars for nearly a decade and they've only collected a few million miles of data whereas Tesla has BILLIONS of miles of data and they've only started working on their tech a couple years ago. Tesla's tech is way ahead of Google's. Waymo is overrated
      - gfredtech 9y ago
        Well, I think that's because Waymo hasn't shipped a self-driving car to the general public yet. My best guess is that they want to achieve level 4 before they make the tech available on a larger scale
        dayaz36 9y ago
        Whatever their reasoning may be, they're still behind. WAY behind.
      - danblick 9y ago
        Miles of data is not the best metric. If you've ever tried to build a machine learning system you'd recognize some of the issues here. First off, where are the labels? How are you to interpret all that data? Say Tesla has recorded video of some dude driving down his street in LA and their system detects a car door opening in his data stream. How can Tesla find out whether or not there actually was a car door opening? Human labelers (for billions of miles of data)? Multiple instruments? If I were designing a system, I'd want a car with extra instruments on it that would help me validate what the primary instruments detected. The idea of just recording a bunch of live traffic seems pretty lame. (You have no way to validate any of the conclusions you draw from the data and hence no way to improve your ability to draw conclusions from the data.) Did you see the article about Waymos test environment at Castle? That, along with a boatload of simulation, is exactly the kind of testing you need to do to develop this kind of a system. Has Tesla ever demo'ed their simulation environment or other tests?
        dayaz36 9y ago
  - danblick 9y ago
    > they've already put in the hardware necessary for FSD so when the software is ready a simple OTA software update is all that's necessary for you're car to have full L5 autonomy That's bull. Every other company working on fully autonomous driving is using Lidar for obstacle detection, but Tesla's cars have none (only radar and cameras). I see no reason to think their software is any better than anyone else's (in fact I would say Waymo almost certainly ahead of them there). Why should I have any confidence that they will be able to get better results than anybody else using cheaper hardware?
    - dayaz36 9y ago
      > I see no reason to think their software is any better than anyone else's (in fact I would say Waymo almost certainly ahead of them there) Waymo has 3 million miles of self driving data. Tesla has 3 BILLION. Perhaps that can be a reason?
      - makomk 9y ago
        Waymo can collect full video and sensor data from all the miles its cars drive. Tesla can collect some high-level logs. It's just not the same thing at all.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - ghshephard 9y ago
    If, by L5 you mean, I can get in my car, at a random, drivable over legal roads location, and instruct the vehicle to take me to another (within reasonable distance) location that is drivable over legal roads - I.E. Google Maps has a route. Basically, no steering wheel required. Benedict Evans, at A16Z, says that some of the smartest people in the automated driving field say that L5 autonomy is 15-20 years out at the earliest. Let's just say that Elon Musk has been known to be a little "enthusiastic" when setting goals and objectives for his team.
    - Fricken 9y ago
      Yeah, no one serious is expecting L5 anytime soon. When someone on the internet mentions L5 it's code for 'I don't know what I'm talking about'.

mrhappyunhappy 9y ago

My thoughts exactly. When I read that the vote was unanimous I instantly thought "oh oh, what did they sneak in there".

azernik 9y ago

Given that this is from a base of zero, and the cap is set to rise by 4x to 100k by 2020 (which is when Waymo plans to start introducing driverless cars), I do not think that this is at all a slow pace.

dayaz36 9y ago
GM sells sells 10M cars per year so 100k would be 1% of that. Also who's Waymo? Tesla is planning to demonstrate a CA to NY trip with zero human intervention in just a few months and Elon has said they're shooting for 2019 for L5 FSD for their entire fleet made past October 2016 (they've already put in the hardware necessary for FSD so when the software is ready a simple OTA software update is all that's necessary for you're car to have full L5 autonomy)
- euyyn 9y ago
  > Also who's Waymo? You serious? It's Google's self-driving car company.
  - dayaz36 9y ago
    Was being sarcastic. Googles been working on their self driving cars for nearly a decade and they've only collected a few million miles of data whereas Tesla has BILLIONS of miles of data and they've only started working on their tech a couple years ago. Tesla's tech is way ahead of Google's. Waymo is overrated
    - gfredtech 9y ago
      Well, I think that's because Waymo hasn't shipped a self-driving car to the general public yet. My best guess is that they want to achieve level 4 before they make the tech available on a larger scale
      - dayaz36 9y ago
        Whatever their reasoning may be, they're still behind. WAY behind.
    - danblick 9y ago
      Miles of data is not the best metric. If you've ever tried to build a machine learning system you'd recognize some of the issues here. First off, where are the labels? How are you to interpret all that data? Say Tesla has recorded video of some dude driving down his street in LA and their system detects a car door opening in his data stream. How can Tesla find out whether or not there actually was a car door opening? Human labelers (for billions of miles of data)? Multiple instruments? If I were designing a system, I'd want a car with extra instruments on it that would help me validate what the primary instruments detected. The idea of just recording a bunch of live traffic seems pretty lame. (You have no way to validate any of the conclusions you draw from the data and hence no way to improve your ability to draw conclusions from the data.) Did you see the article about Waymos test environment at Castle? That, along with a boatload of simulation, is exactly the kind of testing you need to do to develop this kind of a system. Has Tesla ever demo'ed their simulation environment or other tests?
      - dayaz36 9y ago
- danblick 9y ago
  > they've already put in the hardware necessary for FSD so when the software is ready a simple OTA software update is all that's necessary for you're car to have full L5 autonomy That's bull. Every other company working on fully autonomous driving is using Lidar for obstacle detection, but Tesla's cars have none (only radar and cameras). I see no reason to think their software is any better than anyone else's (in fact I would say Waymo almost certainly ahead of them there). Why should I have any confidence that they will be able to get better results than anybody else using cheaper hardware?
  - dayaz36 9y ago
    > I see no reason to think their software is any better than anyone else's (in fact I would say Waymo almost certainly ahead of them there) Waymo has 3 million miles of self driving data. Tesla has 3 BILLION. Perhaps that can be a reason?
    - makomk 9y ago
      Waymo can collect full video and sensor data from all the miles its cars drive. Tesla can collect some high-level logs. It's just not the same thing at all.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- ghshephard 9y ago
  If, by L5 you mean, I can get in my car, at a random, drivable over legal roads location, and instruct the vehicle to take me to another (within reasonable distance) location that is drivable over legal roads - I.E. Google Maps has a route. Basically, no steering wheel required. Benedict Evans, at A16Z, says that some of the smartest people in the automated driving field say that L5 autonomy is 15-20 years out at the earliest. Let's just say that Elon Musk has been known to be a little "enthusiastic" when setting goals and objectives for his team.
  - Fricken 9y ago
    Yeah, no one serious is expecting L5 anytime soon. When someone on the internet mentions L5 it's code for 'I don't know what I'm talking about'.