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There are many things wrong with this article. Foremost is its portrayal of power. Power, which he implicitly defines as the force backing a nation's border,
by hitekker 9y ago
There are many things wrong with this article.
Foremost is its portrayal of power.
Power, which he implicitly defines as the force backing a nation's border, is not premised solely upon the sweat of our technological brows, the way we disrupt and revolutionize economies in pursuit of sky-high GDP.
Power also flows from the barrel of a gun.
The most populous city-state in the world, Hong Kong, has been swallowed by the People's Republic of China. Why? Because China's planned women's army by itself exceeds the population of the United States. Because Deng Xiaoping told the British their troops would cross the bridge with or without a handover.
Contrary to the tone of this article, China is vigorously contesting territory in its sphere of influence. Go look at the sand they're pouring into the south China sea: does that look like dithering?
And even if China, Russia, India, etc. decline within fifty years, that doesn't mean city-states will fill the vaccuum.
It means the remaining players, the ones that have kept their cities and their country together, will have the power. And they will eat these new nimble players alive.
There's a reason the majority of our armed forces hail from the south and midwest and not from the north and west. [1]
Finally, to address the unsaid assumption behind this article: the decline of nations, if it happens, will not be a tea party. The last time a worldwide economic crisis engulfed our planet and threatened the very concept of a nation state, we had the bloodiest war in human history.
[1] As a bit of trivia, when the U.S. government commissioned a study concerning the long-term consequences of full-blown nuclear war, they predicted Latin American gunboats would be pillaging our coasts within 3-4 months. Fun.
- bsder 9y ago> There's a reason the majority of our armed forces hail from the South and not from the coasts. Careful. You are likely confusing two different statistics. There is: A) Recruits by state which reflects (roughly) the state from which they hail B) Residency of current military personnel which reflects (roughly) where the military bases are. While your statement might be true per capita (although http://www.statemaster.com/graph/mil_tot_mil_rec_arm_nav_air_for_percap-navy-air-force-per-capita http://www.statemaster.com/graph/mil_tot_mil_rec_arm_nav_air... makes even that seem a bit doubtful), the sheer difference in population size of California, Texas, and New York probably swamps that. Also be sure not to get civilian employees mixed up in the statistics.
- hitekker 9y agoThe line you're referring to was corrected to: > There's a reason the majority of our armed forces hail from the south and midwest and not from the north and west. Less confusion of statistics and more poor language on my part; the distinction should be between the areas thought of as rural versus the areas which are fully urbanized. Florida being the obvious example of a coastal state that is less developed compared to the North and West and overrepresented in military demographics.
- bsder 9y agoI'm still going to challenge you on this. Taking a look at: http://www.statemaster.com/graph/mil_tot_mil_rec_arm_nav_air_for-recruits-army-navy-air-force&b_map=1 http://www.statemaster.com/graph/mil_tot_mil_rec_arm_nav_air... The top states in terms of numbers are: Texas-15,594 Florida-9,581 New York-7,523 Pennsylvania-5,756 Illinois-5,738 So, Florida is the outlier, not Southern states in general.
- hitekker 9y agoFor those curious, I made a quick excel spreadsheet of the data provided. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_3pASjRsRXawSF4BgmSU7Ugm0i2r_rDyw-cUaR4aYuc/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_3pASjRsRXawSF4BgmSU... A supermajority of recruits (65.7%) comes from the South and Midwest [1]. More recent sources (Statemaster's data is from 2004) confirms that not only the South and Midwest still form the majority in recruiting, but also forms majorities in active duty service men and other key metrics [2]. I would continue tabulating and analyzing, but at this point, I'll take the secondary sources at their word. [3] To be clear, I am not advocating for rural-over-urban or south-over-north or some-weird-political-agenda. Instead, I would caution against minimizing the contributions of these states to our (the US's) national defense. Especially in the South, military service is, not unduly, enshrined as a part of their culture and identity. [1]: This graphic in addition to the state's individual wikipedia articles guided how the groupings of the spreadsheet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_States#/media/File:Census_Regions_and_Division_of_the_United_States.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_... [2]: http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2014-Demographics-Report.pdf http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2014... [3]: http://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-the-us-military-is-so-southern/72100 http://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-the-us-military-is-so-southern..., http://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-is-not-representative-of-country-2014-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-is-not-representa... And so forth. There are a lot of articles about the overrepresentation of the South and Midwest in military demographics.
- wav-part 9y ago> Power also flows from the barrel of a gun. Warmaking is not as profitable as it used to be. And its only decreasing. What has China to gain from invaded HK ? Problem solvers will just move to another region. If its aggressors vs problem solvers, later does not need former at all. To defend PS dont need gun, embargo will work just fine.
- hitekker 9y agoA few years ago, I vaguely recall english-speaking redditors living in East Ukraine ridiculing the prospect of Russia, a friendly neighbor, ever laying a hand on their country. They don't post anymore.
- wav-part 9y agoThats why no private city-state will be created near natural resource. It will be extremely stupid.
- eponeponepon 9y agoAnd two city-states competing for the same natural resource will share it with each other in enlightened cooperation? No, that isn't how the primate territorial instinct works.
- wav-part 9y agoAssuming we are talking about city-states of problem solvers. Than they will neither compete nor cooperate. They will just pay the market value for a barrel of oil. Instead, the fierce and low-margin/high-risk compitition actually exist between aggressors 1. for the control of same region (eg Saudi Arabia) and, 2. providing same product (eg crude oil).
- cakedoggie 9y agoWhat do you imagine that proves?
- 9y ago
- SuoDuanDao 9y agoI would opine though, that part of the reason Beijing is able to govern as effectively as it does is due to good relations with local government. Notably, Chinese citizens do not have unlimited freedom of movement within China, though that rule is only enforced during periods of high unemployment. If we look at trends for internally displaced people due to things like extreme weather events, it seems fairly clear that cities will need to have a say in how quickly they allow their population to increase. Some sharing of power obviously needs to take place between central and local authorities - the idea that more power will remain with central authorities due to the larger armies they can field seems based in a twentieth century view of warfare.
- todd8 9y ago^ There's a reason the majority of our armed forces hail from the south and midwest and not from the north and west. I didn't follow you, what reason are you thinking?
- barrkel 9y agoCity people are similar by outlook, a kinship at an abstract level of education, profession and trade. Country people are connected directly to the land, and usually live near their relatives. Which group of people is more nomadic? Which is more likely to fight for their land?
- baldfat 9y agoI tend to see rural as more individualist. This map of the Nations of American is spot on. http://emerald.tufts.edu/alumni/magazine/fall2013/images/features/upinarms-map-large.jpg http://emerald.tufts.edu/alumni/magazine/fall2013/images/fea... America has many nations and the lack of dedicated voters and the large difference between rural and city voters continues to expand. Just look at NYC compared to New York State during the Presidential Election. People see things as "US" vs "THEM" and that gives way to the City State right here in America.
- viridian 9y agoAs someone intimately familiar with the politics and culture of Ohio, boy howdy does this chart fuck up really badly on the edges. For instance, Guernsey and Noble counties not considering themselves Appalachian is absurd. A case could maybe be made for the ones like Muskingum despite all the stuff named after the mountains in Zanesville, since it does import a bit of culture from Columbus, but some of these are just egregious. Franklin and Delaware counties both being labelled as Appalachian despite encompassing the greater Columbus metropolitan area as a whole is pretty laughable, as Columbus is the most Midwestern city in Ohio. I don't know if you can call this spot on if similar mistakes are made all over the borderlands of this map.
- 9y ago
- wangii 9y agoI don't fully support what my country (China) do in South China Sea but there is a critical context: around 2011, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton basically announced in that US would do whatever she liked in Strait Malacca if necessary. Her announcement scared sh*t of lots of people, especially amongst leadership in China. I understand people normally project their countries as the major source of good. Sadly it's not the case for both US and China.
- freeone3000 9y agoAs I understand it, the Strait of Malacca is international waters. "We'll go to international waters and do whatever we like" doesn't seem threatening, it seems self-evident.