3 ms·
Bad reasoning: Remember the hits, forget the misses.
by celticjames 16y ago
Bad reasoning: Remember the hits, forget the misses.
- todayiamme 16y agoThe hits are impressive nonetheless. I think that there is a lesson to take away over here; perhaps pg is good at this because he has the combination of common sense, practical knowledge and experience? It's quite easy to detract from/criticize something, but to learn something from it is everything.
- nollidge 16y agoA given prediction can only be considered impressive in relation to the predictor's track record. If pg's made a thousand similar public predictions and this is the only one to come true, then it's not impressive. There is insufficient evidence presented in TFA to judge whether or not this prediction was "particularly prescient" or not.