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Coinbase has 10 million users, most of whom are there for bitcoin.

by ericb 9y ago

acdha 9y ago
How many of them are active? How many hold non-trivial balances? Most importantly, how many sales would legal merchants lose if those users jumped ship or lost interest? Again, my point is simply that there's little holding anyone who hasn't made a huge investment specifically in Bitcoin. If you have $10 equivalent sitting in an account and CitiCoin™ launches next week with attractive terms and mainstream merchant acceptance, are you going to think twice about bailing? Alternately, if law enforcement cracks down on the money laundering, etc. and prices drop, how many people will lose interest if it won't make them rich? A key point here: of the comparatively few merchants who accept BTC, how many do their business primarily in Bitcoin and don't quickly convert to something else? That's the only group with a significant commitment to continued use; everyone else can switch on a whim. That's the difference between a pure fiat currency like Bitcoin and something backed by a national government. Bitcoin has no inherent value beyond voluntary group consensus, which means that a panic, messy fork, or disinterest has no natural floor on how far it can fall. In contrast, USD are backed by one of the major world economies, hundreds of millions of people need them to pay taxes, and billions of dollars are paid to government employees, contracts, benefits, etc. Again, that's not immunity from problems but it's a huge inertial weight moderating swings.
- ericb 9y ago
  The backing and even the existence of the United States is also simply a matter of group consensus. It is turtles all the way down, my friend. We're just debating whose delusions are bigger and better.
  - acdha 9y ago
    Do you actually believe that false equivalence? It's like saying your two-person startup is basically the same as IBM because they're both companies.

Coinbase has 10 million users, most of whom are there for bitcoin.

by ericb 9y ago

Coinbase has 10 million users, most of whom are there for bitcoin.

How many of them are active? How many hold non-trivial balances? Most importantly, how many sales would legal merchants lose if those users jumped ship or lost interest? Again, my point is simply that there's little holding anyone who hasn't made a huge investment specifically in Bitcoin. If you have $10 equivalent sitting in an account and CitiCoin™ launches next week with attractive terms and mainstream merchant acceptance, are you going to think twice about bailing? Alternately, if law enforcement cracks down on the money laundering, etc. and prices drop, how many people will lose interest if it won't make them rich? A key point here: of the comparatively few merchants who accept BTC, how many do their business primarily in Bitcoin and don't quickly convert to something else? That's the only group with a significant commitment to continued use; everyone else can switch on a whim. That's the difference between a pure fiat currency like Bitcoin and something backed by a national government. Bitcoin has no inherent value beyond voluntary group consensus, which means that a panic, messy fork, or disinterest has no natural floor on how far it can fall. In contrast, USD are backed by one of the major world economies, hundreds of millions of people need them to pay taxes, and billions of dollars are paid to government employees, contracts, benefits, etc. Again, that's not immunity from problems but it's a huge inertial weight moderating swings.

ericb 9y ago
The backing and even the existence of the United States is also simply a matter of group consensus. It is turtles all the way down, my friend. We're just debating whose delusions are bigger and better.
- acdha 9y ago
  Do you actually believe that false equivalence? It's like saying your two-person startup is basically the same as IBM because they're both companies.