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Quick summary: Overnight rate directly affects the prime rate, the rate at which commercial banks loan to their least risky customers. In the US, prime rate ho
by cthrow 9y ago
Quick summary:
Overnight rate directly affects the prime rate, the rate at which commercial banks loan to their least risky customers. In the US, prime rate hovers 3% above overnight rate (federal funds rate). You can see that relationship here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=eY9Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=eY9Y
In basic economic theory, when interest rates go up, the economy slows down. Higher interest rates encourage saving/purchasing safe assets, and make lending/investing in risky assets or new business ventures more expensive. Banks generally make less loans that fuel direct economic activity when interest rates are higher.
Context/So What:
Canada's economy showed strong signs of growth and low unemployment, so the central bank decided to bump up the interest rate a bit while the data supported the decision to "cool off" the economy.
OK, so commercial loan interest rates will rise 0.25%. Not a huge deal for majority of the economy.
More importantly, the central bank is slowly gaining back the overnight rate as a tool for monetary policy. Many central banks are unwilling to drop the overnight rate below 0%, effectively taxing banks for the reserves they are usually mandated to hold with the central bank.*
If the Bank of Canada can continue to bump the overnight rate up to traditional 4-5% level, it can then cut the rate again to spur economic activity in the case of a downturn. The closer the overnight rate is to 0%, the less effective the rate is as a monetary policy tool.
Personally I believe it will be a long time before we see 4-5% overnight rates again, but overall this is a reaction to good economic news. It happened before investors expected, so the markets are buzzing about it a bit, even though the small bump will probably not have a large impact on Canada's economy.
*BoC actually has no reserve requirements: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/1997/04/working-paper-1997-8/ http://www.bankofcanada.ca/1997/04/working-paper-1997-8/