4 ms·

>> movie rentals and newspapers are small industries, with slow change. Ok, fair enough. So then what are those large and fast-paced industries that are under

>> movie rentals and newspapers are small industries, with slow change. Ok, fair enough. So then what are those large and fast-paced industries that are under the immediate and severe threat due to automation? I mean for something to be on par with industrial revolution there has to be a pretty profound impact all over the place, the kind of impact that the existing ways of doing things can't adapt to at all (kind of how retail has been adapting to e-commerce with mixed results over the course of the past 15+ years).

petra 9y ago
Is retail adapting to e-commerce ? Or is it mostly a really slow decline ? This question is still unanswered If you look at the Amazon's recent fashion growth and walmart's grocery pick up. As for what big industries are under immediate threat ? I'm not sure about how rapid, but in almost every industry you look you see a lot of real term deep innovation(from startups) that, if successful would greatly reduce jobs. Think not only automation but electric cars and mechanics and plant based meat and farmers. That, combined with the fact that we are maybe starting to be able to mechanize the key skills of humans:dexterity and thinking, seem quite a huge change. And maybe we can adapt - but we don't hear almost any ideas at all for many more new jobs, even with creativity of the net so maybe massive unemployment is a possibility?
- ChemicalWarfare 9y ago
  >> Is retail adapting to e-commerce ? Or is it mostly a really slow decline ? It's both, really. For some retailers with brick-and-mortar shops online presence is a way to expand their market, for others - internet is slow death. But again nothing drastic in terms of job reduction has happened overnight even though the whole "internet thing" changed the way things are done drastically af. >> And maybe we can adapt - but we don't hear almost any ideas at all for many more new jobs... It's hard to predict these things. But again I'm not buying the "zomg there will be riots" spiel. If anything there will be a whole set of new (or subset of existing) industries along the lines of how adoption of the internet-based tech spawned them.
  - petra 9y ago
    >> It's hard to predict these things [new jobs] Let's think about the Internet(in 1994) but in the abstract: It was a new medium. New mediums create new advertising and content industries around them. So did the Internet. They also create many jobs to manage/improve the technical stuff - That's also true. It's also a great distribution channel for software and goods. we've known this pretty early. and new distribution channels reduce a business cost thus increasing demand. They also create changes along the whole supply chain, so that's more work. But the surprising fact about the net is it's ability to enable businesses targeting very tiny niches. But if you talked to a many direct marketing guys back in the day, before the net and explained to them about the technical possibilities of the internet(and moore's law and powerful computing) and let them think about it, one in a 10-100, would have told you: this could be great for small targeted businesses. Or maybe that guy is working in prediction, or science fiction, etc. But today we have blogs,and media business who would kill for an eyeball, so we should be able to hear from that smart guy . So why aren't we hearing stories about all those possible new jobs ?
    - ChemicalWarfare 9y ago
      >> why aren't we hearing stories about all those possible new jobs ? you tell me :) I'm not 100% sure why the automation narrative has primarily been of the "impending doom" variety. I think just like with the internet - even if automation does take off big time there will be some "victims" but also new possibilities from the obvious ones - like manufacturing, supporting/updating, installing the "robots" to some things we (speaking for myself lol) can't envision until this actually happens.

petra 9y ago

Is retail adapting to e-commerce ? Or is it mostly a really slow decline ? This question is still unanswered If you look at the Amazon's recent fashion growth and walmart's grocery pick up. As for what big industries are under immediate threat ? I'm not sure about how rapid, but in almost every industry you look you see a lot of real term deep innovation(from startups) that, if successful would greatly reduce jobs. Think not only automation but electric cars and mechanics and plant based meat and farmers. That, combined with the fact that we are maybe starting to be able to mechanize the key skills of humans:dexterity and thinking, seem quite a huge change. And maybe we can adapt - but we don't hear almost any ideas at all for many more new jobs, even with creativity of the net so maybe massive unemployment is a possibility?

ChemicalWarfare 9y ago
>> Is retail adapting to e-commerce ? Or is it mostly a really slow decline ? It's both, really. For some retailers with brick-and-mortar shops online presence is a way to expand their market, for others - internet is slow death. But again nothing drastic in terms of job reduction has happened overnight even though the whole "internet thing" changed the way things are done drastically af. >> And maybe we can adapt - but we don't hear almost any ideas at all for many more new jobs... It's hard to predict these things. But again I'm not buying the "zomg there will be riots" spiel. If anything there will be a whole set of new (or subset of existing) industries along the lines of how adoption of the internet-based tech spawned them.
- petra 9y ago
  >> It's hard to predict these things [new jobs] Let's think about the Internet(in 1994) but in the abstract: It was a new medium. New mediums create new advertising and content industries around them. So did the Internet. They also create many jobs to manage/improve the technical stuff - That's also true. It's also a great distribution channel for software and goods. we've known this pretty early. and new distribution channels reduce a business cost thus increasing demand. They also create changes along the whole supply chain, so that's more work. But the surprising fact about the net is it's ability to enable businesses targeting very tiny niches. But if you talked to a many direct marketing guys back in the day, before the net and explained to them about the technical possibilities of the internet(and moore's law and powerful computing) and let them think about it, one in a 10-100, would have told you: this could be great for small targeted businesses. Or maybe that guy is working in prediction, or science fiction, etc. But today we have blogs,and media business who would kill for an eyeball, so we should be able to hear from that smart guy . So why aren't we hearing stories about all those possible new jobs ?
  - ChemicalWarfare 9y ago
    >> why aren't we hearing stories about all those possible new jobs ? you tell me :) I'm not 100% sure why the automation narrative has primarily been of the "impending doom" variety. I think just like with the internet - even if automation does take off big time there will be some "victims" but also new possibilities from the obvious ones - like manufacturing, supporting/updating, installing the "robots" to some things we (speaking for myself lol) can't envision until this actually happens.