4 ms·

Keep in mind, for those doubting the efficacy, its not necessary to know what exact pitch is coming (Fastball, curve, slider, change up,etc). Just knowing whet

Keep in mind, for those doubting the efficacy, its not necessary to know what exact pitch is coming (Fastball, curve, slider, change up,etc). Just knowing whether it is a fastball or an off speed is enough, at which point, it simply becomes a matter of transmitting a binary signal. Transmitting the sign, could be as easy as sending a 1 or 2, then the dugout simply yelling, "Let's go so-so" for offspeed, or "C'mon #12" for fastball. Most major league pitchers not named, Kershaw, Felix, Max, etc, only have 2 ++ pitches,

dmix 9y ago
So what is being 'stolen' is something that largely comes down to a 50% probability in most situations? Is there a history of 'stealing signs' in baseball? ...Since it could be communicated almost as effectively offline as by a smartwatch. Also, how accurate can the team read the other team's signs from the dugout? Is it a high probability the information between sent to the players is accurate?
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- Dan_Nguyen 9y ago
  >So what is being 'stolen' is something that largely comes down to a 50% probability in most situations? Yes, but that 50% probability makes a huge difference. .300 is considered a fantastic batting average to have. .400 makes you a legend. The former means that a great batter can hit the ball in pay and not get out before they reach first 30% of their at bats. So even improving your batting average by .05, i.e. have 5% more of your at bats result in hits, makes a huge difference to both your team and your career. And as far as that 50% probability goes, it tells the batter a huge amount. A typical fastball comes in in the high 90s mph, an offspeed in the 80s. So even just knowing whether it's an offspeed or fastball ensures you won't swing too late or too early. >Is there a history of 'stealing signs' in baseball? ...Since it could be communicated almost as effectively offline as by a smartwatch. Yes. First it's worth noting that stealing signs without technological aid is legal. The issue here is that the Red Sox were using an Apple Watch to aid them. By far the most common and traditional method of stealing signs is using a runner on second. If a batter reaches second base, he has a clear line of sight to the batter and catcher. The catcher is the one making the signs to the pitcher, and by observing the catcher, the runner on second can relay those signs to the batter thereby improving the batter's chances of getting on base. The obvious issue here is that if you cannot use electronics to assist you, then your chances of stealing signs is limited. The runner on second is about your only chance of being able to do so. >Also, how accurate can the team read the other team's signs from the dugout? Not very. If you watch a typical at bat, pay attention to the catcher. He holds his hand between his legs, right in front of his crotch. His signs makes him look like he's scratching his crotch. Because of how close his hand is to his body, the fact that his legs are always extended on either side of his hands, and that the dugouts are on either side off the field, the dugout's view of the catcher's hands are obscured so they can't see his signs. Goes back to my above statement of the time proven method of stealing signs with a runner on second. >Is it a high probability the information between sent to the players is accurate? Depends on their pre-game preparations and adjustments. What often happens is catchers mask their signals. A simple example of this would be the catcher and pitchers plan beforehand to send four signals, and the second signal is their real one. Obviously it's more complex than this in real life, but the point is there are safeguards against stealing signals. If you have figured out their code then you have a very good chance of predicting pitches. If not, then the signs you steal probably won't be any better than guessing.
- statictype 9y ago
  Yeah. Seems to me that the fact that an Apple Watch was used is just a detail. They could have easily used any other means of sending the signal. The watch was just convenient.
- TheCondor 9y ago
  It's part of the game, as is beaning batters to fix it. The Baseball Codes is a remarkably good book about it all. I'm not a baseball guy but I think the white sox were caught back in the day with a groundskeeper in the scoreboard with binoculars flashing a light to indicate the pitch. I'm lead to believe there are more dimensions than just pitch speed, which is a gigantic aid. Most pitchers only have a couple pitches and placement is big too, you can put a fastball inside to back the hitter off and then have a better outside strike zone. Possibly combined with the catcher talking some trash to the hitter. It's an emotional game
- azernik 9y ago
  Another way of phrasing that is: 1 bit of information. In a very competitive sport. And yes, there is a long history of this, as the article makes clear; and, as the article also makes clear, rules specifically limit the methods by which such information can be acquired and transmitted, which using an Apple Watch violates. Kind of like how part of the strategy of bridge is efficient use of a well-defined and restricted information channel, and using other methods to transmit the same information is considered cheating.
- ubernostrum 9y ago
  So what is being 'stolen' is something that largely comes down to a 50% probability in most situations? People like to say this, and cite statistics and measurements for it, but it's true: hitting a ball thrown by a major-league-caliber pitcher is one of the most difficult feats in sports. For a good major-league-caliber fastball, the total time available, from when the ball leaves the pitcher's hand to when it's past the batter and no longer possible to hit, can be around 400ms. And even for well-trained professional hitters, the time necessary to make a decision and swing the bat far enough around to make contact is around 300ms. That means a major-league hitter has essentially 100 milliseconds, after the ball leaves the pitcher's hand, in which to decide what to do. This means it's not possible to spend time watching how the ball moves; if you do that, it will already be past you by the time you make a decision. So major-league hitters rely on a combination of whatever information they can get in that 100ms of observation on each pitch, plus whatever they saw just before (pitchers try their best to be consistent no matter what pitch they throw, but there can be visible differences in arm angle and grip which provide extra information), plus known patterns both of pitchers in general and of the specific pitcher they're facing. And even with all that, the best hitter of all time -- Ty Cobb -- had a lifetime batting average of .366. A batting average of .400 or better in a single season hasn't happened in over seventy years. So yes, any extra information is a big deal. Just knowing what type of pitch is about to be thrown is a huge advantage to the batter, because it provides so much more time to think about what to do and act on the decision. As to your other questions: "stealing" signs is perfectly legal and has a long history in baseball, but as the article notes the rules forbid the use of technology to assist in it. The batting team generally can only do it when there's a runner on second base (able to look directly at the catcher and see the signs), and teams always switch their system of signs in that situation to try to make it more difficult.
virtualwhys 9y ago
> Just knowing whether it is a fastball or an off speed is enough Except if it's Mariano Rivera, in which case it's only one pitch: a filthy mid-90s cutter. The batter knows it's coming and is largely powerless to do anything about it (i.e. more broken bats than home runs were the outcome of hitting against him). For starting pitchers, however, yes, quite useful for batters to have an idea of the speed of the pitch -- hard enough to hit a major league fastball, much less a splitter, slider, changeup, curveball, etc. on any given pitch.
- fcbrooklyn 9y ago
  Yeah, back when Mo was pitching, this app would be pretty pointless.
- glenstein 9y ago
  Mariano Rivera was a once in a generation pitcher though. So his example doesn't move the needle much in the big picture, in terms of the usefulness of stealing signs.
- awad 9y ago
  Fun fact: while home runs are obviously the eye catcher...he's broken more bats than even given up runs
aidenn0 9y ago
Pedro had 4 good pitches. I remember reading an article debating which pitcher had the single best season in baseball and Pedro was on there twice: 1999 and 2000.

dmix 9y ago

So what is being 'stolen' is something that largely comes down to a 50% probability in most situations? Is there a history of 'stealing signs' in baseball? ...Since it could be communicated almost as effectively offline as by a smartwatch. Also, how accurate can the team read the other team's signs from the dugout? Is it a high probability the information between sent to the players is accurate?

deleted 9y ago
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deleted 9y ago
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Dan_Nguyen 9y ago
>So what is being 'stolen' is something that largely comes down to a 50% probability in most situations? Yes, but that 50% probability makes a huge difference. .300 is considered a fantastic batting average to have. .400 makes you a legend. The former means that a great batter can hit the ball in pay and not get out before they reach first 30% of their at bats. So even improving your batting average by .05, i.e. have 5% more of your at bats result in hits, makes a huge difference to both your team and your career. And as far as that 50% probability goes, it tells the batter a huge amount. A typical fastball comes in in the high 90s mph, an offspeed in the 80s. So even just knowing whether it's an offspeed or fastball ensures you won't swing too late or too early. >Is there a history of 'stealing signs' in baseball? ...Since it could be communicated almost as effectively offline as by a smartwatch. Yes. First it's worth noting that stealing signs without technological aid is legal. The issue here is that the Red Sox were using an Apple Watch to aid them. By far the most common and traditional method of stealing signs is using a runner on second. If a batter reaches second base, he has a clear line of sight to the batter and catcher. The catcher is the one making the signs to the pitcher, and by observing the catcher, the runner on second can relay those signs to the batter thereby improving the batter's chances of getting on base. The obvious issue here is that if you cannot use electronics to assist you, then your chances of stealing signs is limited. The runner on second is about your only chance of being able to do so. >Also, how accurate can the team read the other team's signs from the dugout? Not very. If you watch a typical at bat, pay attention to the catcher. He holds his hand between his legs, right in front of his crotch. His signs makes him look like he's scratching his crotch. Because of how close his hand is to his body, the fact that his legs are always extended on either side of his hands, and that the dugouts are on either side off the field, the dugout's view of the catcher's hands are obscured so they can't see his signs. Goes back to my above statement of the time proven method of stealing signs with a runner on second. >Is it a high probability the information between sent to the players is accurate? Depends on their pre-game preparations and adjustments. What often happens is catchers mask their signals. A simple example of this would be the catcher and pitchers plan beforehand to send four signals, and the second signal is their real one. Obviously it's more complex than this in real life, but the point is there are safeguards against stealing signals. If you have figured out their code then you have a very good chance of predicting pitches. If not, then the signs you steal probably won't be any better than guessing.
statictype 9y ago
Yeah. Seems to me that the fact that an Apple Watch was used is just a detail. They could have easily used any other means of sending the signal. The watch was just convenient.
TheCondor 9y ago
It's part of the game, as is beaning batters to fix it. The Baseball Codes is a remarkably good book about it all. I'm not a baseball guy but I think the white sox were caught back in the day with a groundskeeper in the scoreboard with binoculars flashing a light to indicate the pitch. I'm lead to believe there are more dimensions than just pitch speed, which is a gigantic aid. Most pitchers only have a couple pitches and placement is big too, you can put a fastball inside to back the hitter off and then have a better outside strike zone. Possibly combined with the catcher talking some trash to the hitter. It's an emotional game
azernik 9y ago
Another way of phrasing that is: 1 bit of information. In a very competitive sport. And yes, there is a long history of this, as the article makes clear; and, as the article also makes clear, rules specifically limit the methods by which such information can be acquired and transmitted, which using an Apple Watch violates. Kind of like how part of the strategy of bridge is efficient use of a well-defined and restricted information channel, and using other methods to transmit the same information is considered cheating.
ubernostrum 9y ago
So what is being 'stolen' is something that largely comes down to a 50% probability in most situations? People like to say this, and cite statistics and measurements for it, but it's true: hitting a ball thrown by a major-league-caliber pitcher is one of the most difficult feats in sports. For a good major-league-caliber fastball, the total time available, from when the ball leaves the pitcher's hand to when it's past the batter and no longer possible to hit, can be around 400ms. And even for well-trained professional hitters, the time necessary to make a decision and swing the bat far enough around to make contact is around 300ms. That means a major-league hitter has essentially 100 milliseconds, after the ball leaves the pitcher's hand, in which to decide what to do. This means it's not possible to spend time watching how the ball moves; if you do that, it will already be past you by the time you make a decision. So major-league hitters rely on a combination of whatever information they can get in that 100ms of observation on each pitch, plus whatever they saw just before (pitchers try their best to be consistent no matter what pitch they throw, but there can be visible differences in arm angle and grip which provide extra information), plus known patterns both of pitchers in general and of the specific pitcher they're facing. And even with all that, the best hitter of all time -- Ty Cobb -- had a lifetime batting average of .366. A batting average of .400 or better in a single season hasn't happened in over seventy years. So yes, any extra information is a big deal. Just knowing what type of pitch is about to be thrown is a huge advantage to the batter, because it provides so much more time to think about what to do and act on the decision. As to your other questions: "stealing" signs is perfectly legal and has a long history in baseball, but as the article notes the rules forbid the use of technology to assist in it. The batting team generally can only do it when there's a runner on second base (able to look directly at the catcher and see the signs), and teams always switch their system of signs in that situation to try to make it more difficult.

virtualwhys 9y ago

> Just knowing whether it is a fastball or an off speed is enough Except if it's Mariano Rivera, in which case it's only one pitch: a filthy mid-90s cutter. The batter knows it's coming and is largely powerless to do anything about it (i.e. more broken bats than home runs were the outcome of hitting against him). For starting pitchers, however, yes, quite useful for batters to have an idea of the speed of the pitch -- hard enough to hit a major league fastball, much less a splitter, slider, changeup, curveball, etc. on any given pitch.

fcbrooklyn 9y ago
Yeah, back when Mo was pitching, this app would be pretty pointless.
glenstein 9y ago
Mariano Rivera was a once in a generation pitcher though. So his example doesn't move the needle much in the big picture, in terms of the usefulness of stealing signs.
awad 9y ago
Fun fact: while home runs are obviously the eye catcher...he's broken more bats than even given up runs

aidenn0 9y ago

Pedro had 4 good pitches. I remember reading an article debating which pitcher had the single best season in baseball and Pedro was on there twice: 1999 and 2000.