Consider also that the strong political incentive is to order evacuations at every opportunity. If the storm fizzles out or veers off-course, the politician can

Consider also that the strong political incentive is to order evacuations at every opportunity. If the storm fizzles out or veers off-course, the politician can say "Better safe than sorry" and be no worse for the wear. If the storm turns out worse than expected, however, and the politician did not order an evacuation, he will be eviscerated no matter what. This means it is always politically expedient to "cry wolf" over anything with any potential significance, which only makes _meaningful_ evacuation orders less heeded. At this point, we're 5 days out from the storm hitting the continental US, and they still don't really know whether it will hit Florida or not; it could still veer into either the Atlantic or the Gulf. Where I live in Central FL, people are already hoarding gasoline, food, and water, and it may turn into Mad Max before the storm even hits. Heeding warnings is great but per usual, it seems to be one extreme or the other...