4 ms·

Oof. This is ramping up to be quite the hurricane/monsoon season. I don't know much about meteorology, so I'll post this without comment besides the article's

Oof. This is ramping up to be quite the hurricane/monsoon season. I don't know much about meteorology, so I'll post this without comment besides the article's subject; maybe someone else can make an informed value judgement. But apparently as global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is going to be able to hold a lot more water: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/the-strange-future-hurricane-harvey-portends/538557/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/the-stra...

JshWright 9y ago
The atmosphere can hold more water, and the oceans hold more heat. Hurricanes thrive on warm water (especially deep warm water, as the hurricane will churn up water from deeper levels, which can weaken it significantly if it's stirring up a lot of cold water). One of the reasons Harvey intensified so quickly is that is passed over a _very_ warm section of the gulf: https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc_aQG3_2016_237_1200.harvey.int__0.gif https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc_aQG3_2016_237_1200.harvey.int__0.gif Irma will be passing over similarly warm waters for the next 4-5 days: http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_2017_248_1200.irma.int.gif http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_20... The northern Leewards and Greater Antilles are in for a _really_ rough time. It's likely a direct hit (or close brush) with either Hispaniola or Cuba will weaken Irma before it turns north into Florida, but that's still really bad news for folks in the northern Caribbean, and it's still going to be a very serious storm when it hits Florida.
idlewords 9y ago
Cliff Mass (whose blog is really worth following) points out that this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards. There is not a big temperature anomaly in the waters fueling these storms: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hurricane-harvey.html http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hur... In other words, this is the kind of storm season you can expect to get once in a while even before factoring in the effect of warming seas.
- cryptoz 9y ago
  Please note that the Cliff Mass blog post you linked to is not about the hurricane discussed here. Also note that your summary of his post ("this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards") is misleading as that is not the topic or conclusion of that piece.
  - idlewords 9y ago
    Look at the weekly SST temperature anomaly along Irma's track and you'll see the argument carries over.
- JshWright 9y ago
  Indeed. It is more or less impossible to say "this storm happened because of climate change". What climate change does is shift the storms/year bell curve slightly to the right.
  - idlewords 9y ago
    It's not a bell curve, though.
    - JshWright 9y ago
      No? A (very) quick and dirty plot looks like a pretty normal distribution to me... https://www.dropbox.com/s/fs9fqjsq6vau5bt/Screenshot%202017-09-06%2009.57.34.png?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/fs9fqjsq6vau5bt/Screenshot%202017-...
      - idlewords 9y ago
        Note that nine-sigma (or whatever it is) event on the right.

JshWright 9y ago

The atmosphere can hold more water, and the oceans hold more heat. Hurricanes thrive on warm water (especially deep warm water, as the hurricane will churn up water from deeper levels, which can weaken it significantly if it's stirring up a lot of cold water). One of the reasons Harvey intensified so quickly is that is passed over a _very_ warm section of the gulf: https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc_aQG3_2016_237_1200.harvey.int__0.gif https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc_aQG3_2016_237_1200.harvey.int__0.gif Irma will be passing over similarly warm waters for the next 4-5 days: http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_2017_248_1200.irma.int.gif http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_20... The northern Leewards and Greater Antilles are in for a _really_ rough time. It's likely a direct hit (or close brush) with either Hispaniola or Cuba will weaken Irma before it turns north into Florida, but that's still really bad news for folks in the northern Caribbean, and it's still going to be a very serious storm when it hits Florida.

idlewords 9y ago

Cliff Mass (whose blog is really worth following) points out that this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards. There is not a big temperature anomaly in the waters fueling these storms: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hurricane-harvey.html http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hur... In other words, this is the kind of storm season you can expect to get once in a while even before factoring in the effect of warming seas.

cryptoz 9y ago
Please note that the Cliff Mass blog post you linked to is not about the hurricane discussed here. Also note that your summary of his post ("this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards") is misleading as that is not the topic or conclusion of that piece.
- idlewords 9y ago
  Look at the weekly SST temperature anomaly along Irma's track and you'll see the argument carries over.
JshWright 9y ago
Indeed. It is more or less impossible to say "this storm happened because of climate change". What climate change does is shift the storms/year bell curve slightly to the right.
- idlewords 9y ago
  It's not a bell curve, though.
  - JshWright 9y ago
    No? A (very) quick and dirty plot looks like a pretty normal distribution to me... https://www.dropbox.com/s/fs9fqjsq6vau5bt/Screenshot%202017-09-06%2009.57.34.png?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/fs9fqjsq6vau5bt/Screenshot%202017-...
    - idlewords 9y ago
      Note that nine-sigma (or whatever it is) event on the right.