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Quoting from the OP: Many economists say there is no need to worry. They point to how past major transformations in work tasks and labor markets – specifically
by cs702 9y ago
Quoting from the OP:
Many economists say there is no need to worry. They point to how past major transformations in work tasks and labor markets – specifically the Industrial Revolution during the 18th and 19th centuries – did not lead to major social upheaval or widespread suffering. These economists say that when technology destroys jobs, people find other jobs. ...
As one economist argued: "Since the dawn of the industrial age, a recurrent fear has been that technological change will spawn mass unemployment. Neoclassical economists predicted that this would not happen, because people would find other jobs, albeit possibly after a long period of painful adjustment. By and large, that prediction has proven to be correct." ...
These economists are definitely right about the long period of painful adjustment! The aftermath of the Industrial Revolution involved two major Communist revolutions, whose death toll approaches 100 million. The stabilizing influence of the modern social welfare state emerged only after World War II, nearly 200 years on from the 18th-century beginnings of the Industrial Revolution. ...
Today, as globalization and automation dramatically boost corporate productivity, many workers have seen their wages stagnate. The increasing power of automation and artificial intelligence technology means more pain may follow. Are these economists minimizing the historical record when projecting the future, essentially telling us not to worry because in a century or two things will get better?
The author's answer is, WE SHOULD WORRY, because the adjustment already is and in the near term will continue to be painful. It's hard to disagree with him.
This article brings to mind John Maynard Keynes's most famous quote: "Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again."[1]
[1] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes
- dv_dt 9y agoOne interpretation would be that civilization needn't worry over the large scale, but people born into an certain time periods certainly do need to worry - particularly when it appears that the economy might veer off course with a correction not apparent within their own or their children's lifetimes.