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> If someone who is already a physician, quits and takes a job as a bartender or telemarketer, it doesn’t mean their chances of divorce changes. Uh, I'd say it

> If someone who is already a physician, quits and takes a job as a bartender or telemarketer, it doesn’t mean their chances of divorce changes. Uh, I'd say it almost certainly does significantly change their chance of divorce. If you go from having a steady, high income to variable work with high uncertainty around your next paycheck of course it will put more stress on the marriage and substantially increase the risk of divorce.

SilasX 9y ago
Right, and even beyond the income issues, that kind of transition is itself unusual, and correlated with all kinds of other negative events. That tends to happen because they lost their medical license, or were embroiled in a scandal that made them unwanted anywhere, or had a major decline in performance (itself due to addiction or chronic condition, etc). To be sure, it could very well be that they had some "come to Jesus" moment and decided that's what they really wanted to do in life, and it increased their general happiness and willingness to put effort into all their other relationships. But that, I would think, is the exception, not the rule. Edit: Though it might be correct to say that the job-change is not a causal driver of the divorce, but merely affected by the real cause.
- Bartweiss 9y ago
  > To be sure, it could very well be that they had some "come to Jesus" moment and decided that's what they really wanted to do in life, and it increased their general happiness and willingness to put effort into all their other relationships. But that, I would think, is the exception, not the rule. And even this would make them a non-central example of physicians (and bartenders). Most doctors are heavily committed after 10+ years of education; many bartenders are not "living their dream" and expect to move on. Someone who willingly makes that swap because they've found their true calling is incomparable to the average for both careers.
  - ubernostrum 9y ago
    Most doctors are heavily committed after 10+ years of education This is an interesting claim, because I've read various things claiming the opposite (that medicine is a career with a high rate of people leaving it, because the eventual pay and working conditions are simply horrid).
    - mbrameld 9y ago
      The medical career field comprises more than just doctors.
      - ubernostrum 9y ago
        The comment I replied to specifically used the word "doctors".
- Retric 9y ago
  I think there could be a fairly wide range of things that caused such a jump without a major problem. Someone 50+ might semi retire and open a bar on the beach. What happens if someone inherits 5+ million and wants a less stressful occupation that's not simply traveling around the world? Well they probably do something well outside of the norm.
  - dennisgorelik 9y ago
    Inheriting $5M is a pretty risky event (similar to the lottery winning). The chance of divorce in that situation would definitely go up.
    - morgante 9y ago
      Is there evidence of that? I have to imagine that someone used to earning high incomes (like a doctor) would be able to effectively manage a large cash infusion without hurting their marriage. Of course, this ignores the fact that sometimes divorce might be a "good" thing where a cash infusion allows someone to leave a bad spouse they were financially dependent on (or, more cynically, "upgrade" their spouse).
balls187 9y ago
Making a drastic career change that is coupled with change in income, and doing so without getting a consensus with their spouse, would likely be at a higher risk to get a divorce anyway. They don't act as if they are in a partnership and are making unilateral decisions that can have immediate consequences for the marriage. If instead, this was a joint decision, I agree with the authors assertions--making a change in career would not impact divorce risk.
- watwut 9y ago
  Changes are hard even if both agree with them originally. Also, people change with their environment, so there might be subsequent chages in partners behavior.
twothamendment 9y ago
If I quit my job as a software engineer working at home and became a flight attendant - I think that would have a significant, negative impact on my marriage.
DINKDINK 9y ago
>I'd say it almost certainly does significantly change their chance of divorce Where's your data to break the Null Hypothesis? Though, if the author of the article wanted to back up their claim, they would attempt to show to what degree drastic changes in career/income had ok divorce rate.
- charsifood 9y ago
  So is this the standard for posting opinions now? It's obvious that OP (morgante) is posting as conjecture rather than canon.
emodendroket 9y ago
Well, let's imagine that happens before marriage. Anyway, the point is well taken, IMO, despite the possible nitpicking about specifics. If it helps imagine going from "misc. personal appearance workers" to "massage therapists."
apendleton 9y ago
Yeah, I think they probably would have been better off saying "it doesn't necessarily mean" -- it may well, but you might not be able to infer it from this data
Bartweiss 9y ago
Of course, this is all horribly confounded by the fact of the decision. A person who switches from being a doctor to being a bartender is almost certainly non-standard among both doctors and bartenders; it would be tough to distinguish the impact of the changed career from the impact of "being the sort of person who makes this switch".

SilasX 9y ago

Right, and even beyond the income issues, that kind of transition is itself unusual, and correlated with all kinds of other negative events. That tends to happen because they lost their medical license, or were embroiled in a scandal that made them unwanted anywhere, or had a major decline in performance (itself due to addiction or chronic condition, etc). To be sure, it could very well be that they had some "come to Jesus" moment and decided that's what they really wanted to do in life, and it increased their general happiness and willingness to put effort into all their other relationships. But that, I would think, is the exception, not the rule. Edit: Though it might be correct to say that the job-change is not a causal driver of the divorce, but merely affected by the real cause.

Bartweiss 9y ago
> To be sure, it could very well be that they had some "come to Jesus" moment and decided that's what they really wanted to do in life, and it increased their general happiness and willingness to put effort into all their other relationships. But that, I would think, is the exception, not the rule. And even this would make them a non-central example of physicians (and bartenders). Most doctors are heavily committed after 10+ years of education; many bartenders are not "living their dream" and expect to move on. Someone who willingly makes that swap because they've found their true calling is incomparable to the average for both careers.
- ubernostrum 9y ago
  Most doctors are heavily committed after 10+ years of education This is an interesting claim, because I've read various things claiming the opposite (that medicine is a career with a high rate of people leaving it, because the eventual pay and working conditions are simply horrid).
  - mbrameld 9y ago
    The medical career field comprises more than just doctors.
    - ubernostrum 9y ago
      The comment I replied to specifically used the word "doctors".
Retric 9y ago
I think there could be a fairly wide range of things that caused such a jump without a major problem. Someone 50+ might semi retire and open a bar on the beach. What happens if someone inherits 5+ million and wants a less stressful occupation that's not simply traveling around the world? Well they probably do something well outside of the norm.
- dennisgorelik 9y ago
  Inheriting $5M is a pretty risky event (similar to the lottery winning). The chance of divorce in that situation would definitely go up.
  - morgante 9y ago
    Is there evidence of that? I have to imagine that someone used to earning high incomes (like a doctor) would be able to effectively manage a large cash infusion without hurting their marriage. Of course, this ignores the fact that sometimes divorce might be a "good" thing where a cash infusion allows someone to leave a bad spouse they were financially dependent on (or, more cynically, "upgrade" their spouse).

balls187 9y ago

Making a drastic career change that is coupled with change in income, and doing so without getting a consensus with their spouse, would likely be at a higher risk to get a divorce anyway. They don't act as if they are in a partnership and are making unilateral decisions that can have immediate consequences for the marriage. If instead, this was a joint decision, I agree with the authors assertions--making a change in career would not impact divorce risk.

watwut 9y ago
Changes are hard even if both agree with them originally. Also, people change with their environment, so there might be subsequent chages in partners behavior.

twothamendment 9y ago

If I quit my job as a software engineer working at home and became a flight attendant - I think that would have a significant, negative impact on my marriage.

DINKDINK 9y ago

>I'd say it almost certainly does significantly change their chance of divorce Where's your data to break the Null Hypothesis? Though, if the author of the article wanted to back up their claim, they would attempt to show to what degree drastic changes in career/income had ok divorce rate.

charsifood 9y ago
So is this the standard for posting opinions now? It's obvious that OP (morgante) is posting as conjecture rather than canon.

emodendroket 9y ago

Well, let's imagine that happens before marriage. Anyway, the point is well taken, IMO, despite the possible nitpicking about specifics. If it helps imagine going from "misc. personal appearance workers" to "massage therapists."

apendleton 9y ago

Yeah, I think they probably would have been better off saying "it doesn't necessarily mean" -- it may well, but you might not be able to infer it from this data

Bartweiss 9y ago

Of course, this is all horribly confounded by the fact of the decision. A person who switches from being a doctor to being a bartender is almost certainly non-standard among both doctors and bartenders; it would be tough to distinguish the impact of the changed career from the impact of "being the sort of person who makes this switch".