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Which lives do you mean, exactly? North Korean, or others? IMHO, KJU has nothing to gain and everything to lose by provoking other powers into a forceful respo

by uoaei 9y ago

Which lives do you mean, exactly? North Korean, or others? IMHO, KJU has nothing to gain and everything to lose by provoking other powers into a forceful response. The erratic behavior of him and his government is the defensive tactic itself. The ability to cause destruction overseas is of secondary concern, and it would seem to be a negligible one in the face of a potential response. Trump employs something similar--act unpredictably and people keep their distance. Create the next sensationalist headline and people will 1) stop and think about what exactly is going on and 2) stay their distance. Do this enough times, often enough, and you're relatively shielded from serious threats to your power. Of course, there is a limit, but so far they both are acting within tolerances.

jeffdavis 9y ago
"The ability to cause destruction overseas is of secondary concern" No, that's my primary concern. If your calculation is off, and they do attack, or scare someone else enough to attack them, the result will be horrific. And you seem to assume the situation there is stable and KJU will behave rationally. If domestic politics in NK get complicated or KJU gets too paranoid, there's no telling what he will do.
- uoaei 9y ago
  I meant that, for KJU, he is less concerned about the ability to cause destruction than he is about preserving his seat of power. I believe KJU is more rational than he broadcasts, in that his motivations for acting the way he does comes from a plan to keep everyone at arm's (or rocket's) length and not out of some crazed all-or-nothing brigade. It doesn't seem sustainable in the long run, I agree. It's a matter of time until something off-the-wall happens. I also find it hard to believe that the US, China, and Russia don't all have sophisticated countermeasures in place in case a rocket is launched with a trajectory toward something important. It may still cause horrific damage, but not on the level of a megacity. Your primary concern is not his. That is my wager. Let's hope my optimism wins out...

by uoaei 9y ago

jeffdavis 9y ago

"The ability to cause destruction overseas is of secondary concern" No, that's my primary concern. If your calculation is off, and they do attack, or scare someone else enough to attack them, the result will be horrific. And you seem to assume the situation there is stable and KJU will behave rationally. If domestic politics in NK get complicated or KJU gets too paranoid, there's no telling what he will do.

uoaei 9y ago
I meant that, for KJU, he is less concerned about the ability to cause destruction than he is about preserving his seat of power. I believe KJU is more rational than he broadcasts, in that his motivations for acting the way he does comes from a plan to keep everyone at arm's (or rocket's) length and not out of some crazed all-or-nothing brigade. It doesn't seem sustainable in the long run, I agree. It's a matter of time until something off-the-wall happens. I also find it hard to believe that the US, China, and Russia don't all have sophisticated countermeasures in place in case a rocket is launched with a trajectory toward something important. It may still cause horrific damage, but not on the level of a megacity. Your primary concern is not his. That is my wager. Let's hope my optimism wins out...