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Using the 6.3 Richter scale, the energy released would be ~43 kilotons of TNT. I think that's a pretty good guess- they seem kind of skeptical of the 6.3, but

Using the 6.3 Richter scale, the energy released would be ~43 kilotons of TNT. I think that's a pretty good guess- they seem kind of skeptical of the 6.3, but there may be some additional energy that wasn't transferred into the quake, like heat loss/air pressure. I plotted a 43.2 kiloton airburst bomb over LA using NUKEMAP[1], which is under heavy load right now (surprise surprise). tl;dr: 166k fatalities, 341k injuries, 270 m fireball and 100% fatalities within 1km. Almost all structures destroyed within 2.5 km, and 3rd degree burns within 3.2 km. Still far from a "real" nuke, but significantly more impressive than their last tests. It's about 1/10th the size of the biggest fission bomb the US made, the Mark 18. Our current missiles are ~475 kilotons per warhead, with 12 warheads per missile (several hundred times more destructive). [1]: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=43.2&lat=34.0453902&lng=-118.2525158&hob_ft=0&casualties=1&zm=13 https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=43.2&lat=34.0453902&...

jsnathan 9y ago
> Using the 6.3 Richter scale, the energy released would be ~43 kilotons of TNT. That's curious. Every yield estimate I've seen so far was substantially higher than this. Could you explain how you arrive at this number?
- tscs37 9y ago
  I'm curious as well, my estimates based on data from a 5MT explosion being about 6.8 on the scale and various formulas, I'd get into the megaton range, then again, other methods do arrive at a sub-100kT range too.
  - MichaelMoser123 9y ago
    Jeffrey Lewis says that its a megaton, that would make them part of the club. https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/904197086815543296 https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/90419708681554329... (the guy from http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ says so) Interesting if India and Pakistan will decide that they now need to acquire and test thermonuclear weapons of their own. (unexpected side effects?)
    - bb611 9y ago
      Lewis' completion of that line of tweets says it's in the couple hundred kT range, but still a staged TN device.
randallsquared 9y ago
Ten times the yield doesn't produce ten times the destruction, though. These are definitely "real" nukes, being well over twice the size of the only nukes ever used on a city.

jsnathan 9y ago

> Using the 6.3 Richter scale, the energy released would be ~43 kilotons of TNT. That's curious. Every yield estimate I've seen so far was substantially higher than this. Could you explain how you arrive at this number?

tscs37 9y ago
I'm curious as well, my estimates based on data from a 5MT explosion being about 6.8 on the scale and various formulas, I'd get into the megaton range, then again, other methods do arrive at a sub-100kT range too.
- MichaelMoser123 9y ago
  Jeffrey Lewis says that its a megaton, that would make them part of the club. https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/904197086815543296 https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/90419708681554329... (the guy from http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ says so) Interesting if India and Pakistan will decide that they now need to acquire and test thermonuclear weapons of their own. (unexpected side effects?)
  - bb611 9y ago
    Lewis' completion of that line of tweets says it's in the couple hundred kT range, but still a staged TN device.

randallsquared 9y ago

Ten times the yield doesn't produce ten times the destruction, though. These are definitely "real" nukes, being well over twice the size of the only nukes ever used on a city.