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Given the DPRK's secrecy, there's always tealeaf-reading involved in any interpretation of its behaviour. Many DPRK-watchers do suggest that the neocon drive to

Given the DPRK's secrecy, there's always tealeaf-reading involved in any interpretation of its behaviour. Many DPRK-watchers do suggest that the neocon drive to regime change in general, and the 2011 Libyan intervention in particular, cemented its determination to gain a credible nuclear deterrent. If the US had a normal President, this might be rational enough. As things stand, we're a whisker away from a war which will incinerate millions, kill the world economy stone dead for decades, and prevent all progress on the many critical issues facing our dying planet.

mirimir 9y ago
Which war? The one with NK, or the one with Russia?
- crispinb 9y ago
  War with NK could break out any day or hour if we're unlucky. With Russia? Not impossible, particularly if someone badly stuffs up in Syria, but far less likely.
fiblye 9y ago
You say a normal president would help, but a "normal president" was behind the shit in Libya that you said cemented NK's determination. No matter what kind of president America has, our reckless foreign intervention through the past few decades is to blame.
- crispinb 9y ago
  I didn't say a normal president would 'help', nor did I defend the US's MIC. I said nuclear deterrence as a rational response on the part of the DPRK depends on the assumption of a normal functioning President. Given the incumbent, the DPRK may have made a miscalculation that will end in ashes.
Hasknewbie 9y ago
> If the US had a normal President The president is a non-issue on strategic matters, he has no knowledge on this, he knows it and the people around him know it. If you watch him, you'll see him do the typical alpha-male thing solely for his crowd, then the generals will tap him on the shoulder, whisper something in his ear, and after that he will do and say what he's told. Happened for Syria, happened for Iraq, happened for Afghanistan, and it will be the same for NK.
- crispinb 9y ago
  > he has no knowledge on this True > he knows it I've seen no evidence of this yet > it will be the same for NK We'd better hope so, but the clear first rule of thinking about the future is to give scant attention to anyone who expresses much confidence in their own prognostications. No-one knows what will happen, because the future is undetermined (read Tetlock amongst others: political predictions are difficult and generally of low accuracy). Don't forget that the whole design of the US nuclear deterrent system is precisely to make their use not "strategic", but keep it rather within the tactical ambit of the POTUS (for an expert description see https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/no-one-can-stop-president-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-thats-by-design/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/...). So if in a fit of pique Trump decided to 'teach Kim a lesson' (this is the level of sophistication at which he thinks), "the generals" may well tap him on the shoulder, but it will be entirely a matter of his whim whether or not he heeds that tap. Your retreat into comforting certainty is quite understandable.

mirimir 9y ago

Which war? The one with NK, or the one with Russia?

crispinb 9y ago
War with NK could break out any day or hour if we're unlucky. With Russia? Not impossible, particularly if someone badly stuffs up in Syria, but far less likely.

fiblye 9y ago

You say a normal president would help, but a "normal president" was behind the shit in Libya that you said cemented NK's determination. No matter what kind of president America has, our reckless foreign intervention through the past few decades is to blame.

crispinb 9y ago
I didn't say a normal president would 'help', nor did I defend the US's MIC. I said nuclear deterrence as a rational response on the part of the DPRK depends on the assumption of a normal functioning President. Given the incumbent, the DPRK may have made a miscalculation that will end in ashes.

Hasknewbie 9y ago

> If the US had a normal President The president is a non-issue on strategic matters, he has no knowledge on this, he knows it and the people around him know it. If you watch him, you'll see him do the typical alpha-male thing solely for his crowd, then the generals will tap him on the shoulder, whisper something in his ear, and after that he will do and say what he's told. Happened for Syria, happened for Iraq, happened for Afghanistan, and it will be the same for NK.

crispinb 9y ago
> he has no knowledge on this True > he knows it I've seen no evidence of this yet > it will be the same for NK We'd better hope so, but the clear first rule of thinking about the future is to give scant attention to anyone who expresses much confidence in their own prognostications. No-one knows what will happen, because the future is undetermined (read Tetlock amongst others: political predictions are difficult and generally of low accuracy). Don't forget that the whole design of the US nuclear deterrent system is precisely to make their use not "strategic", but keep it rather within the tactical ambit of the POTUS (for an expert description see https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/no-one-can-stop-president-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-thats-by-design/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/...). So if in a fit of pique Trump decided to 'teach Kim a lesson' (this is the level of sophistication at which he thinks), "the generals" may well tap him on the shoulder, but it will be entirely a matter of his whim whether or not he heeds that tap. Your retreat into comforting certainty is quite understandable.