Speculating on where AGI will come from is sort of like speculating where Faster than Light travel will come from. Except FTL has some vaguely plausible physics

Speculating on where AGI will come from is sort of like speculating where Faster than Light travel will come from. Except FTL has some vaguely plausible physics behind it, and AGI-wise, we really have no idea what the "I" in AGI means. The mere fact that biological neural networks are rate encoded might turn out to be the one crucial thing that's practically impossible to simulate in a VN computer. My vote: "we have no idea; probably not in my lifetime."