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The brain is a physical entity, yes, so in theory we should be able to model it, assuming we know all the laws it works on with enough precision. This is a big

The brain is a physical entity, yes, so in theory we should be able to model it, assuming we know all the laws it works on with enough precision. This is a big if, but even if that's granted, is there anything which indicates that this is imminent?

ktRolster 9y ago
is there anything which indicates that this is imminent? This article seems to be arguing "no." The biggest thing missing I think is an understanding of how human memory works.
red75prime 9y ago
Market demands. Anyway, given that GI already happened, better question would be "Are there obstacles which could prevent creation of an AGI?". I think the answer is unlikely.
fasquoika 9y ago
I think it depends on how you define "imminent". If we're talking a hundred years, well, a lot can happen in that time. We didn't even have computers a hundred years ago, and now they can do certain things that are considered particularly "human", like have a fairly coherent conversation
- gradys 9y ago
  I'd be interested to see an example of an AI having a fairly coherent conversation. Most of the impressive seeming examples of this based on response ranking. When a message from a human comes in, the system ranks the responses in its repository of human-written responses to find one that fits. Because the responses are human-written, they can seem locally coherent, but since the model generally isn't tracking any state, the conversation never really goes anywhere. Also, if you try to talk to one of these response rankers about something it doesn't have any canned responses for, obviously it doesn't work. Natural language generation on the other hand, where the model writes each response character-by-character or word-by-word, has the potential to do something much more interesting, but the state of the art there isn't quite at the level of "fairly coherent" AFAIK.
adrianN 9y ago
Unless we come with a way more efficient theory of intelligence than quantum mechanics we won't be able to just simulate a brain for a very long time. Currently we're struggling to simulate systems with a few dozen atoms, so there is no way to scale basic physical simulation up to a whole brain. Hopefully we'll figure out a more useable level of abstraction that still allows for intelligent behavior.

ktRolster 9y ago

is there anything which indicates that this is imminent? This article seems to be arguing "no." The biggest thing missing I think is an understanding of how human memory works.

red75prime 9y ago

Market demands. Anyway, given that GI already happened, better question would be "Are there obstacles which could prevent creation of an AGI?". I think the answer is unlikely.

fasquoika 9y ago

I think it depends on how you define "imminent". If we're talking a hundred years, well, a lot can happen in that time. We didn't even have computers a hundred years ago, and now they can do certain things that are considered particularly "human", like have a fairly coherent conversation

gradys 9y ago
I'd be interested to see an example of an AI having a fairly coherent conversation. Most of the impressive seeming examples of this based on response ranking. When a message from a human comes in, the system ranks the responses in its repository of human-written responses to find one that fits. Because the responses are human-written, they can seem locally coherent, but since the model generally isn't tracking any state, the conversation never really goes anywhere. Also, if you try to talk to one of these response rankers about something it doesn't have any canned responses for, obviously it doesn't work. Natural language generation on the other hand, where the model writes each response character-by-character or word-by-word, has the potential to do something much more interesting, but the state of the art there isn't quite at the level of "fairly coherent" AFAIK.

adrianN 9y ago

Unless we come with a way more efficient theory of intelligence than quantum mechanics we won't be able to just simulate a brain for a very long time. Currently we're struggling to simulate systems with a few dozen atoms, so there is no way to scale basic physical simulation up to a whole brain. Hopefully we'll figure out a more useable level of abstraction that still allows for intelligent behavior.