8 ms·

The outlook of London (and the rest of the U.K.) will likely change dramatically as the hard Brexit looms closer. A major advantage London had was access to the

The outlook of London (and the rest of the U.K.) will likely change dramatically as the hard Brexit looms closer. A major advantage London had was access to the 500M large European labour market - which will close with Brexit, making London less competitive and attractive to Europeans than before.

irpapakons 9y ago
We know very little about what the Brexit agreement will look like. As long as high paying jobs exist, nothing stops highly skilled European people from continuing to get them, even if that involves a bit more bureaucracy.
- alphabetam 9y ago
  Not really: it's not bureaucracy that scares us Europeans, rather than the fact that over 50% of the country voted in an indisputably racist way to lower immigration. It's the fact that Europeans in the UK feel mistreated and disliked now.
  - logingone 9y ago
    Indisputably? I'd also bet you're not European, but rather a mischievous remoaner. Many people voted leave because of numbers, not languages. I didn't vote, enjoying the entertainment.
    - bad_user 9y ago
      > I didn't vote FYI, when you're not voting, you're inevitably siding with the majority, in this case your vote being #leave, whether you wanted that or not ;-)
      - williamgb 9y ago
        I'm at all sure that follows.
  - hyperdunc 9y ago
    Imagine what the working class in the UK have felt like for the past 30 years.
    - corford 9y ago
      Agree but try "last 300+ years" rather than 30. Sadly I don't think Brexit will be their salvation. The problem with the UK and class has always lied with domestic politics. This wont change whether we're in or out of Europe.
    - grey-area 9y ago
      Imagine what they'll feel like when they realise limiting immigration will not save them but lead to more austerity.
      - hyperdunc 9y ago
        If it does, imagine what they might do when they realize that. A rapidly changing first-world is producing a lot of losers - but they're not yet disenfranchised and many of them are even armed.
        grey-area 9y ago
        I'm a little concerned about this. We're entering a new industrial revolution - a lot of white collar jobs and blue collar jobs are being disrupted or eliminated. For example every factory and driving job will disappear in our lifetimes, many office jobs will be disrupted. New jobs will be found, we'll be more productive, and the world will be better because of it, but history shows us that this sort of disruption and destroyed livelihoods leads to violence, revolutions and unrest. We will see a similar situation to the original industrial revolution. I do think it is misguided and harmful to attempt to try to find scapegoats for structural changes in society (popular just now are immigrants, muslims, corporations or evil federal governments), which is why I disagree fundamentally with almost every argument advanced for Brexit (from foreigners are taking our jobs to the evil EU is out to crush our democracy). It will not end well when people don't see improvement in their life but suffer more, and wonder who is to blame if not immigrants.
  - sw00pur 9y ago
    If that were the case, which it isn't, they would've voted against Eastern Europeans, not Western Europeans.
  - jamiegreen 9y ago
    Whilst some people may have had racist intentions in voting leave, it is not fair to say that 50% of the country voted in a racist way. Also why does a desire for lower immigration automatically mean you must be racist?
    - oh_sigh 9y ago
      Sure it's fair. We intelligent and moral people in America have already determined that anyone who voted for Trump to be decent facto racist. This is just a small extension of that. There's no other possible explanation. None at all. The other side is evil, and just want to watch the world burn. Can't they see that were building a better world and they just want to live in ruins with their pure bred families.
      - kevin_thibedeau 9y ago
        Not all but certainly a healthy double digit percentage. The rest are easily manipulated followers.
    - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
      I'm sure it's not the whole 50% but it is a significant number, I've even seen it on my own family and it isn't very nice. This part of Brexit worries me more than the economic issues.
  - ZenoArrow 9y ago
    I wonder how many times I need to repeat myself on HN before the message gets across... I voted for Brexit, but I did not vote based on immigration policy. In addition to seeing no major problems with the current immigration arrangements from an economic perpective, one of my grandfathers was an immigrant to the UK, and I'm glad to have my mixed ancestry, if nothing else it made my childhood more interesting. The problem really is with the media. They've set out Brexit as a two-issue debate. The only two issues that get discussed are immigration and the economy. So if you voted for Brexit you're either a racist or an economic luddite. I bet you can't even guess why I'd vote for Brexit without being driven by those two factors. That's the level to which the debate has been simplified in the media. So let me say this, speaking as a Brexit voter, you are welcome in this country. Don't let the media tell you why those 50% of voters (which wasn't 50% the UK population) voted the way they did, they haven't got a clue.
    - msangi 9y ago
      You forgot to tell us the reason why you voted leave
      - ZenoArrow 9y ago
        I intentionally omitted the reason I voted leave to highlight how limited the public debate has been (i.e. that it's not possible for many Remain voters to guess any other reasons than the two I outlined). If you are curious about the reasons I voted to leave, look through my comment history around the time of the Brexit vote. I may explain it again later once I've made my point about the media's role in limiting the public debate.
    - Symbiote 9y ago
      I presume you wanted to remove the EU's influence over British law. This position was widely discussed in the British media [1]. Suggesting otherwise is bananas :-D [1] A Google search for "Brexit sovereignty" gives plenty of articles, from across all newspapers.
      - ZenoArrow 9y ago
  - seddona 9y ago
    Every single person I know that voted leave did it on economic grounds. I'm sure a proportion was flat out racism but it's nowhere near 50%.
  - oh_sigh 9y ago
    Indisputably racist? Theres no other explanation you can entertain?
- nkoren 9y ago
  As a non-EU immigrant who has lived here for 10 years and is still struggling with visa issues, the idea that it will involve just "a bit" more bureaucracy is laughable. The bureaucracy is appalling. Europeans who have any alternative will undoubtedly go elsewhere.
  - kogepathic 9y ago
    > As a non-EU immigrant who ... is still struggling with visa issues Amen. I was trying to decide between working in the UK or in Europe several years ago. I'm from a common wealth country so I assumed getting a UK visa would be cheap/easy. No way José! The UK visa requirements were positively assinine in their requirements (everywhere you've visited the last 10 years, visa fees totaling over 800£). Requirements for someone with a university education and no criminal record or even a speeding ticket, which yes, you must also declare when applying. It was basically an complicated and expensive process designed to catch you lying (intentionally or by omission) so they could deny you the visa. I ended up going to a European country. Showed them my working contract and a copy of my university degree. 110€ and I had a 3 year work visa within 6 weeks. The UK is insane for immigration.
    - avh02 9y ago
      you might find the following fairly interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/01/home-office-makes-800-profit-on-some-visa-applications https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/01/home-office-... as a third-worlder, I've started to keep a running spreadsheet of all visa fees (and associated costs) I have paid that I would not have to pay if I were a first-worlder. (Schengen application fees multiple times, UK visit, Hong Kong visit, UK student, etc.) The only one I can let slide so far is the one for my student visa in the UK (especially the NHS coverage parts) as I've never paid income tax in the UK.
    - corford 9y ago
      I like Chilie's approach to visa fees: they charge you whatever your country charges Chileans. So it's something like €100 if you are German and €1200+ if you are from the UK :D
- bad_user 9y ago
  The problem is highly skilled Europeans can also get those jobs elsewhere. Berlin, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin, Munich, Stockholm, Copenhagen, etc. And if somebody is willing to suffer through bureaucracy and be humiliated in that process, for a city that has an insanely high cost of living, then why would people go to London instead of San Francisco or New York? The problem with leaving the EU is that the EU provides competitive advantages and opportunities that are now going to be gone. Plus that referendum is signaling to me, an European, that I'm not wanted there. Oh and I'm also a Romanian and we've been used as scapegoats in the UK's anti-immigration campaign. Don't think that I'm going to forget that easily.
  - thriftwy 9y ago
    Maybe what you are describing is in fact a good thing? London gets correction on its growth, rest of the UK sligtly benefits by getting industries back which can no longer be served from within EU. Which will lead to slowdown or reversal of inequality growth.
    - slashdotdash 9y ago
      The remainder of the U.K., outside of London, has a larger dependency on the EU. These regions will suffer disproportionately more than London. "In particular, Northern Ireland (the UK’s poorest region), the North East (England’s poorest region) and the South West (Southern England’s poorest region) appear to be the most dependent on the ability of the UK to trade in goods with relatively few restrictions with other EU countries." [1] [1] "UK regions, the European Union and manufacturing exports" http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Brief23-UK-regions-the-EU-and-manufacturing-exports.pdf http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Brie...
      - thriftwy 9y ago
        I can feel the pain with regards to Northern Ireland. Though, it's hard to justify how Northern Ireland happen to become the UK’s poorest region, given how Ireland is more prosperous than the UK by the numbers. The whole situation is hilarous IMO.
- antouank 9y ago
  If you follow closely the UK government's positions and actions for the last 2 years, it's only logical to assume that the outcome will be negative. The only question is how much negative. ( hint: a lot ) As an EU national who came to the UK 5 years ago, I'm in the process of preparing to leave in a year. Already numbers show that even if the outcome is vague, a large percentage is alrady leaving ( mainly low-wage workers that are affected from a weak GBP ) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/immigration-falls-as-eu-citizens-quit-britain-after-brexit-vote https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/immigrati... Now imagine what happens when people realise they'll need a Visa or getting a new passport and rejecting their own. I'd certainly leave. My bet is that a 30~50% of EU nationals will leave within the next 5 years, which is a huge blow to London and the UK.
  - charlesdm 9y ago
    Flipside is that the UK still has one of the most interesting tax systems in Europe aside from Monaco, (London and UK) property just got 30% cheaper for those not earning in pounds and London is still a global prime city (Brexit or not, don't really see that changing). The country will be fine in the end. If anything, with how things are going, they'll probably end up either 1) not leaving (not that likely), or 2) end up with a very similar deal to what they have now (a lot more likely). But it will take years to figure things out and put it all together in a deal. It makes no sense whatsoever for both sides to be mad at each other -- the EU and UK make good trading partners, part of the EU or not.
    - antouank 9y ago
      > It makes no sense whatsoever for both sides to be mad at each other -- the EU and UK make good trading partners, part of the EU or not. It doesn't. But that's the thing, the actors here are not in for the greater good like you. They have selfish micro-perspectives and all they care is maintaining power => votes. So for the particular UK government, priority is satisfying their voters. And those voters are ... not that smart or aware of how economies/countries work. Again, look at what they say, and then look at what they do, since the campaign for Brexit started. Common sense is the thing that you will not find. Unfortunately. > The country will be fine in the end. Yeah, the sky will not fall. Everything will be "fine".
- msangi 9y ago
  > As long as high paying jobs exist Reading the news and from rumors, companies are planning to move away or at least to keep London on hold and instead hire people somewhere else. Brexit is also weakening the pound, which means that is much easier for European companies to be competitive with London salaries. I've been in London for almost 4 years and I've a very good position so I'll probably stick around for a while and see what happens. In the meantime, I'm having a look for better opportunities somewhere else.
holydude 9y ago
Except London is Apha++ city. Besides NYC nothing comes close to its power and influence.

irpapakons 9y ago

We know very little about what the Brexit agreement will look like. As long as high paying jobs exist, nothing stops highly skilled European people from continuing to get them, even if that involves a bit more bureaucracy.

alphabetam 9y ago
Not really: it's not bureaucracy that scares us Europeans, rather than the fact that over 50% of the country voted in an indisputably racist way to lower immigration. It's the fact that Europeans in the UK feel mistreated and disliked now.
- logingone 9y ago
  Indisputably? I'd also bet you're not European, but rather a mischievous remoaner. Many people voted leave because of numbers, not languages. I didn't vote, enjoying the entertainment.
  - bad_user 9y ago
    > I didn't vote FYI, when you're not voting, you're inevitably siding with the majority, in this case your vote being #leave, whether you wanted that or not ;-)
    - williamgb 9y ago
      I'm at all sure that follows.
- hyperdunc 9y ago
  Imagine what the working class in the UK have felt like for the past 30 years.
  - corford 9y ago
    Agree but try "last 300+ years" rather than 30. Sadly I don't think Brexit will be their salvation. The problem with the UK and class has always lied with domestic politics. This wont change whether we're in or out of Europe.
  - grey-area 9y ago
    Imagine what they'll feel like when they realise limiting immigration will not save them but lead to more austerity.
    - hyperdunc 9y ago
      If it does, imagine what they might do when they realize that. A rapidly changing first-world is producing a lot of losers - but they're not yet disenfranchised and many of them are even armed.
      - grey-area 9y ago
        I'm a little concerned about this. We're entering a new industrial revolution - a lot of white collar jobs and blue collar jobs are being disrupted or eliminated. For example every factory and driving job will disappear in our lifetimes, many office jobs will be disrupted. New jobs will be found, we'll be more productive, and the world will be better because of it, but history shows us that this sort of disruption and destroyed livelihoods leads to violence, revolutions and unrest. We will see a similar situation to the original industrial revolution. I do think it is misguided and harmful to attempt to try to find scapegoats for structural changes in society (popular just now are immigrants, muslims, corporations or evil federal governments), which is why I disagree fundamentally with almost every argument advanced for Brexit (from foreigners are taking our jobs to the evil EU is out to crush our democracy). It will not end well when people don't see improvement in their life but suffer more, and wonder who is to blame if not immigrants.
- sw00pur 9y ago
  If that were the case, which it isn't, they would've voted against Eastern Europeans, not Western Europeans.
- jamiegreen 9y ago
  Whilst some people may have had racist intentions in voting leave, it is not fair to say that 50% of the country voted in a racist way. Also why does a desire for lower immigration automatically mean you must be racist?
  - oh_sigh 9y ago
    Sure it's fair. We intelligent and moral people in America have already determined that anyone who voted for Trump to be decent facto racist. This is just a small extension of that. There's no other possible explanation. None at all. The other side is evil, and just want to watch the world burn. Can't they see that were building a better world and they just want to live in ruins with their pure bred families.
    - kevin_thibedeau 9y ago
      Not all but certainly a healthy double digit percentage. The rest are easily manipulated followers.
  - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
    I'm sure it's not the whole 50% but it is a significant number, I've even seen it on my own family and it isn't very nice. This part of Brexit worries me more than the economic issues.
- ZenoArrow 9y ago
  I wonder how many times I need to repeat myself on HN before the message gets across... I voted for Brexit, but I did not vote based on immigration policy. In addition to seeing no major problems with the current immigration arrangements from an economic perpective, one of my grandfathers was an immigrant to the UK, and I'm glad to have my mixed ancestry, if nothing else it made my childhood more interesting. The problem really is with the media. They've set out Brexit as a two-issue debate. The only two issues that get discussed are immigration and the economy. So if you voted for Brexit you're either a racist or an economic luddite. I bet you can't even guess why I'd vote for Brexit without being driven by those two factors. That's the level to which the debate has been simplified in the media. So let me say this, speaking as a Brexit voter, you are welcome in this country. Don't let the media tell you why those 50% of voters (which wasn't 50% the UK population) voted the way they did, they haven't got a clue.
  - msangi 9y ago
    You forgot to tell us the reason why you voted leave
    - ZenoArrow 9y ago
      I intentionally omitted the reason I voted leave to highlight how limited the public debate has been (i.e. that it's not possible for many Remain voters to guess any other reasons than the two I outlined). If you are curious about the reasons I voted to leave, look through my comment history around the time of the Brexit vote. I may explain it again later once I've made my point about the media's role in limiting the public debate.
  - Symbiote 9y ago
    I presume you wanted to remove the EU's influence over British law. This position was widely discussed in the British media [1]. Suggesting otherwise is bananas :-D [1] A Google search for "Brexit sovereignty" gives plenty of articles, from across all newspapers.
    - ZenoArrow 9y ago
- seddona 9y ago
  Every single person I know that voted leave did it on economic grounds. I'm sure a proportion was flat out racism but it's nowhere near 50%.
- oh_sigh 9y ago
  Indisputably racist? Theres no other explanation you can entertain?
nkoren 9y ago
As a non-EU immigrant who has lived here for 10 years and is still struggling with visa issues, the idea that it will involve just "a bit" more bureaucracy is laughable. The bureaucracy is appalling. Europeans who have any alternative will undoubtedly go elsewhere.
- kogepathic 9y ago
  > As a non-EU immigrant who ... is still struggling with visa issues Amen. I was trying to decide between working in the UK or in Europe several years ago. I'm from a common wealth country so I assumed getting a UK visa would be cheap/easy. No way José! The UK visa requirements were positively assinine in their requirements (everywhere you've visited the last 10 years, visa fees totaling over 800£). Requirements for someone with a university education and no criminal record or even a speeding ticket, which yes, you must also declare when applying. It was basically an complicated and expensive process designed to catch you lying (intentionally or by omission) so they could deny you the visa. I ended up going to a European country. Showed them my working contract and a copy of my university degree. 110€ and I had a 3 year work visa within 6 weeks. The UK is insane for immigration.
  - avh02 9y ago
    you might find the following fairly interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/01/home-office-makes-800-profit-on-some-visa-applications https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/01/home-office-... as a third-worlder, I've started to keep a running spreadsheet of all visa fees (and associated costs) I have paid that I would not have to pay if I were a first-worlder. (Schengen application fees multiple times, UK visit, Hong Kong visit, UK student, etc.) The only one I can let slide so far is the one for my student visa in the UK (especially the NHS coverage parts) as I've never paid income tax in the UK.
  - corford 9y ago
    I like Chilie's approach to visa fees: they charge you whatever your country charges Chileans. So it's something like €100 if you are German and €1200+ if you are from the UK :D
bad_user 9y ago
The problem is highly skilled Europeans can also get those jobs elsewhere. Berlin, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin, Munich, Stockholm, Copenhagen, etc. And if somebody is willing to suffer through bureaucracy and be humiliated in that process, for a city that has an insanely high cost of living, then why would people go to London instead of San Francisco or New York? The problem with leaving the EU is that the EU provides competitive advantages and opportunities that are now going to be gone. Plus that referendum is signaling to me, an European, that I'm not wanted there. Oh and I'm also a Romanian and we've been used as scapegoats in the UK's anti-immigration campaign. Don't think that I'm going to forget that easily.
- thriftwy 9y ago
  Maybe what you are describing is in fact a good thing? London gets correction on its growth, rest of the UK sligtly benefits by getting industries back which can no longer be served from within EU. Which will lead to slowdown or reversal of inequality growth.
  - slashdotdash 9y ago
    The remainder of the U.K., outside of London, has a larger dependency on the EU. These regions will suffer disproportionately more than London. "In particular, Northern Ireland (the UK’s poorest region), the North East (England’s poorest region) and the South West (Southern England’s poorest region) appear to be the most dependent on the ability of the UK to trade in goods with relatively few restrictions with other EU countries." [1] [1] "UK regions, the European Union and manufacturing exports" http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Brief23-UK-regions-the-EU-and-manufacturing-exports.pdf http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Brie...
    - thriftwy 9y ago
      I can feel the pain with regards to Northern Ireland. Though, it's hard to justify how Northern Ireland happen to become the UK’s poorest region, given how Ireland is more prosperous than the UK by the numbers. The whole situation is hilarous IMO.
antouank 9y ago
If you follow closely the UK government's positions and actions for the last 2 years, it's only logical to assume that the outcome will be negative. The only question is how much negative. ( hint: a lot ) As an EU national who came to the UK 5 years ago, I'm in the process of preparing to leave in a year. Already numbers show that even if the outcome is vague, a large percentage is alrady leaving ( mainly low-wage workers that are affected from a weak GBP ) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/immigration-falls-as-eu-citizens-quit-britain-after-brexit-vote https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/immigrati... Now imagine what happens when people realise they'll need a Visa or getting a new passport and rejecting their own. I'd certainly leave. My bet is that a 30~50% of EU nationals will leave within the next 5 years, which is a huge blow to London and the UK.
- charlesdm 9y ago
  Flipside is that the UK still has one of the most interesting tax systems in Europe aside from Monaco, (London and UK) property just got 30% cheaper for those not earning in pounds and London is still a global prime city (Brexit or not, don't really see that changing). The country will be fine in the end. If anything, with how things are going, they'll probably end up either 1) not leaving (not that likely), or 2) end up with a very similar deal to what they have now (a lot more likely). But it will take years to figure things out and put it all together in a deal. It makes no sense whatsoever for both sides to be mad at each other -- the EU and UK make good trading partners, part of the EU or not.
  - antouank 9y ago
    > It makes no sense whatsoever for both sides to be mad at each other -- the EU and UK make good trading partners, part of the EU or not. It doesn't. But that's the thing, the actors here are not in for the greater good like you. They have selfish micro-perspectives and all they care is maintaining power => votes. So for the particular UK government, priority is satisfying their voters. And those voters are ... not that smart or aware of how economies/countries work. Again, look at what they say, and then look at what they do, since the campaign for Brexit started. Common sense is the thing that you will not find. Unfortunately. > The country will be fine in the end. Yeah, the sky will not fall. Everything will be "fine".
msangi 9y ago
> As long as high paying jobs exist Reading the news and from rumors, companies are planning to move away or at least to keep London on hold and instead hire people somewhere else. Brexit is also weakening the pound, which means that is much easier for European companies to be competitive with London salaries. I've been in London for almost 4 years and I've a very good position so I'll probably stick around for a while and see what happens. In the meantime, I'm having a look for better opportunities somewhere else.

holydude 9y ago

Except London is Apha++ city. Besides NYC nothing comes close to its power and influence.