4 ms·

> the Chinese are highly speculative It's almost crazy how gambling and stock bubbles are nearly unheard of in Europe or America, precisely because of how seld

> the Chinese are highly speculative It's almost crazy how gambling and stock bubbles are nearly unheard of in Europe or America, precisely because of how seldom those peoples speculate. To think, if it wasn't for Jinan province's tulip mania, we'd barely understand the phenomenon of speculative bubbles. Or maybe it was Dandong, I forget.

johnwheeler 9y ago
The Chinese speculate more
- brownbat 9y ago
  My mistake, it's not like you were saying all Irish are drunks, or the Irish are the only drunks, just that the Irish like their whiskey more. Since there are only 1.4 Billion Chinese, these sort of sweeping generalizations are perfectly reasonable.
  - johnwheeler 9y ago
    No, it's like I'm saying "College graduates earn more income" or even "Men like football more than women do".
    - brownbat 9y ago
      Yikes, turns out humor didn't really disarm the situation. On the contrary, if you're resorting to sockpuppet downvoting then we've hit pure freakout mode. So... let's take a breath. We all have assumptions about the world, there's nothing wrong with that. Sometimes they're right and sometimes we're wrong. What we want to do, is (1) recognize that blanket statements about an entire ethnic group can sometimes strike others as offensive or just comically antiquated, and therefore, (2) sanity check these generalizations against actual data. I mean, it's one thing to offend a bunch of people if you're right, right? Maybe that's worth it... occasionally. But why waste the energy if you're going to be wrong? Or even just unsure? Ok, I'm sure you're bursting with anecdotes already to defend the claim. I'll spare you some effort and try a few. Like... the Chinese stock market is crazy! Well, yes, but actually a pretty normal level of crazy for a developing economy with some corruption and off-book efforts determining winners and losers. Or... Macau is a huge gambling city! Sure, but lots of places have had a huge gambling hub before. They're often a symptom of other factors. A maturing hospitality sector... or restrictions on certain types of income. They make a great way to launder illegal money or support subtle capital flight. Ok, what if we could look at gambling by country more broadly then, not focused on hubs but entire nations? Well, gambling revenues track with GDP really well, countries with the most money are the ones that gamble the most. The US is way on top of the list. Go figure. Ok, so let's control for GDP... If you run that check on the dozen or so countries big enough to matter, you'll find Italy and Australia topping the list with twice the proportionate losses as China. China muddles around the middle, squarely between the UK and the US, not much beyond France or Japan. It's perfectly boring. Beyond this, levels of regulation seem to have a strong influence, so we'd want to control for the weird mixed status of Macau vs. the mainland (which has legal lotteries but not slots). It's a project that could be done, possibly useful, but the data already screams other factors that matter more. Patterns aren't determined by culture so much as they're determined by all these simple exogenous factors that obviously require a control, like how much money is in people's pockets, how much access they have to games. And speaking of controls... we're being generous here by not even controlling for population, which would tank China's rating. There's a reason gambling isn't strongly tied to a certain nationality, why several regions have been gambling hubs over the ages. There's a similar reason speculative bubbles happen in markets around the world, not just in China. Speculative affinity isn't a cultural characteristic, to the extent it's even measurable at all. Ok, we can save time at this point. I'm pretty sure you still disagree. If it makes you feel better, downvote this one too, they're just fake internet points. But if you make sweeping generalizations disparaging an entire race based on archaic stereotypes, you should expect some pushback from time to time. It shouldn't strike you as a sudden unexpected shock to occasionally get called out on that sort of thing. Frankly I don't think it's a hill worth fighting and dying on, but everyone has to pick their own redlines I suppose. Good luck with your Internetting.
    - johnwheeler 9y ago
      > if you're resorting to sockpuppet downvoting then we've hit pure freakout mode. @brownbat, I can't downvote you since you're replying to my comment. I would guess the downvotes are because your original comments are snarky and lack an argument germane to the OP. I don't have raw data and am basing my conclusions on the stock market you mention, that luck is a big component of chinese culture, and that the Chinese operate the largest bitcoin mining pools. My comments weren't meant to offend. I'm not implying there's anything wrong with speculators (so long as they don't call themselves investors).

johnwheeler 9y ago

The Chinese speculate more

brownbat 9y ago
My mistake, it's not like you were saying all Irish are drunks, or the Irish are the only drunks, just that the Irish like their whiskey more. Since there are only 1.4 Billion Chinese, these sort of sweeping generalizations are perfectly reasonable.
- johnwheeler 9y ago
  No, it's like I'm saying "College graduates earn more income" or even "Men like football more than women do".
  - brownbat 9y ago
    Yikes, turns out humor didn't really disarm the situation. On the contrary, if you're resorting to sockpuppet downvoting then we've hit pure freakout mode. So... let's take a breath. We all have assumptions about the world, there's nothing wrong with that. Sometimes they're right and sometimes we're wrong. What we want to do, is (1) recognize that blanket statements about an entire ethnic group can sometimes strike others as offensive or just comically antiquated, and therefore, (2) sanity check these generalizations against actual data. I mean, it's one thing to offend a bunch of people if you're right, right? Maybe that's worth it... occasionally. But why waste the energy if you're going to be wrong? Or even just unsure? Ok, I'm sure you're bursting with anecdotes already to defend the claim. I'll spare you some effort and try a few. Like... the Chinese stock market is crazy! Well, yes, but actually a pretty normal level of crazy for a developing economy with some corruption and off-book efforts determining winners and losers. Or... Macau is a huge gambling city! Sure, but lots of places have had a huge gambling hub before. They're often a symptom of other factors. A maturing hospitality sector... or restrictions on certain types of income. They make a great way to launder illegal money or support subtle capital flight. Ok, what if we could look at gambling by country more broadly then, not focused on hubs but entire nations? Well, gambling revenues track with GDP really well, countries with the most money are the ones that gamble the most. The US is way on top of the list. Go figure. Ok, so let's control for GDP... If you run that check on the dozen or so countries big enough to matter, you'll find Italy and Australia topping the list with twice the proportionate losses as China. China muddles around the middle, squarely between the UK and the US, not much beyond France or Japan. It's perfectly boring. Beyond this, levels of regulation seem to have a strong influence, so we'd want to control for the weird mixed status of Macau vs. the mainland (which has legal lotteries but not slots). It's a project that could be done, possibly useful, but the data already screams other factors that matter more. Patterns aren't determined by culture so much as they're determined by all these simple exogenous factors that obviously require a control, like how much money is in people's pockets, how much access they have to games. And speaking of controls... we're being generous here by not even controlling for population, which would tank China's rating. There's a reason gambling isn't strongly tied to a certain nationality, why several regions have been gambling hubs over the ages. There's a similar reason speculative bubbles happen in markets around the world, not just in China. Speculative affinity isn't a cultural characteristic, to the extent it's even measurable at all. Ok, we can save time at this point. I'm pretty sure you still disagree. If it makes you feel better, downvote this one too, they're just fake internet points. But if you make sweeping generalizations disparaging an entire race based on archaic stereotypes, you should expect some pushback from time to time. It shouldn't strike you as a sudden unexpected shock to occasionally get called out on that sort of thing. Frankly I don't think it's a hill worth fighting and dying on, but everyone has to pick their own redlines I suppose. Good luck with your Internetting.
  - johnwheeler 9y ago
    > if you're resorting to sockpuppet downvoting then we've hit pure freakout mode. @brownbat, I can't downvote you since you're replying to my comment. I would guess the downvotes are because your original comments are snarky and lack an argument germane to the OP. I don't have raw data and am basing my conclusions on the stock market you mention, that luck is a big component of chinese culture, and that the Chinese operate the largest bitcoin mining pools. My comments weren't meant to offend. I'm not implying there's anything wrong with speculators (so long as they don't call themselves investors).