5 ms·

I, like many others, live in an area where there is already roughly enough housing. There is little space to build a new 1 family home, not does it make sense t

I, like many others, live in an area where there is already roughly enough housing. There is little space to build a new 1 family home, not does it make sense to. If I tore down my current house, It would make economic sense to turn it into a crappy medium rent apartment building. Building a home is already information overload, you need to make it trendy or economical. If it was clear the TCO was lower with this tech, it WILL sell. But buyers are conservative, and for good reason. That new tech is now their 30 year investment.

dublinben 9y ago
It is abundantly clear that the TCO of zero-energy or energy-positive homes is lower than traditional construction. The nearly nonexistent utility costs are immediately apparent. The math will only shift more in their favor as energy costs continue to rise.
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  Energy costs won't rise: energy demand growth has halted across the first world (aging population + efficiency gains), and adding renewables each year is going to drive the price of energy down. People should still build energy efficient dwellings, but there is no energy price spike around the corner (for electricity at least). An hour of sunlight on Earth supplies enough energy to power humanity for a year.
  - Retric 9y ago
    Inflation still increases the long term costs. This makes a very important difference when home loans are ~4%.
    - toomuchtodo 9y ago
      Inflation is not a given. Notice how inflation can't be pushed up in first world countries, even with trillions of dollars of quantitive easing by central banks [1]. Yes, you can create asset bubbles in the stock market and real estate. But the cost of everything else (besides RE, equities, health care, and education) is going down. The cost of energy will continue to decline, because we are awash in renewable energy, and the collection mechanisms are technology that continues to decline in cost precipitously. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/fed-minutes-may-show-battle-lines-hardening-over-soft-inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/fed-minut...
      - Retric 9y ago
        US inflation rate has been positive over most of the last 10 years and generally close to the FED's targets. Remember, the FED can make unlimited cash just show up so they have unlimited leverage. They are simply cautious.
    - jerf 9y ago
      Inflation generally grows more slowly than reasonable time-value-of-money values. Payback times much beyond maybe 10 years aren't things generally worth doing. Personally even at 5 I'm getting a bit skeptical. That said, most people who have never even started optimizing their house can find things that will payback in months, where it definitely is worth it. Example: When I moved into this house about 8 years ago, every single light in the place was incandescent, and every fixture that could take multiple bulbs had them all full. The house was IMHO actually painfully bright, and that via incandescents. There was an easy win there even 8 years ago with CFLs, and it's only gotten better since. (Do you really need 4 80-watt unfrosted (!) incandescent bulbs over your bathroom mirror? I sincerely hope somebody just slapped them there to make the house look "better" for the sale by not having empty sockets there being unsightly. I've got one 14W CFL in there and that's plenty of light.)
      - dsr_ 9y ago
        Clearly you aren't doing your makeup in that mirror. However, no, 4x80W bulbs aren't needed. When someone does need to do makeup, replace them with 4 1200 lumen 5000K bulbs (15-17W each).
  - wycx 9y ago
    Never underestimate the power of combined industry and government incompetence and greed. Australia is the world's top natural gas exporter, but also has the developed world's highest electricity prices. Natural gas prices have increased several fold in the domestic market over the last couple of years, with concomitant increase in electricity prices. Increases in electricity prices can definitely happen.
    - kwhitefoot 9y ago
      Surely Australia could be self sufficient just using solar.
- gnopgnip 9y ago
  You also have to consider the opportunity cost of the higher construction costs.
  - ptaipale 9y ago
    The difference in construction cost may be not very significant compared to the rework cost needed to fix houses that have problems due to structures and arrangements that turn out to not work quite as intended.

dublinben 9y ago

It is abundantly clear that the TCO of zero-energy or energy-positive homes is lower than traditional construction. The nearly nonexistent utility costs are immediately apparent. The math will only shift more in their favor as energy costs continue to rise.

toomuchtodo 9y ago
Energy costs won't rise: energy demand growth has halted across the first world (aging population + efficiency gains), and adding renewables each year is going to drive the price of energy down. People should still build energy efficient dwellings, but there is no energy price spike around the corner (for electricity at least). An hour of sunlight on Earth supplies enough energy to power humanity for a year.
- Retric 9y ago
  Inflation still increases the long term costs. This makes a very important difference when home loans are ~4%.
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Inflation is not a given. Notice how inflation can't be pushed up in first world countries, even with trillions of dollars of quantitive easing by central banks [1]. Yes, you can create asset bubbles in the stock market and real estate. But the cost of everything else (besides RE, equities, health care, and education) is going down. The cost of energy will continue to decline, because we are awash in renewable energy, and the collection mechanisms are technology that continues to decline in cost precipitously. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/fed-minutes-may-show-battle-lines-hardening-over-soft-inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/fed-minut...
    - Retric 9y ago
      US inflation rate has been positive over most of the last 10 years and generally close to the FED's targets. Remember, the FED can make unlimited cash just show up so they have unlimited leverage. They are simply cautious.
  - jerf 9y ago
    Inflation generally grows more slowly than reasonable time-value-of-money values. Payback times much beyond maybe 10 years aren't things generally worth doing. Personally even at 5 I'm getting a bit skeptical. That said, most people who have never even started optimizing their house can find things that will payback in months, where it definitely is worth it. Example: When I moved into this house about 8 years ago, every single light in the place was incandescent, and every fixture that could take multiple bulbs had them all full. The house was IMHO actually painfully bright, and that via incandescents. There was an easy win there even 8 years ago with CFLs, and it's only gotten better since. (Do you really need 4 80-watt unfrosted (!) incandescent bulbs over your bathroom mirror? I sincerely hope somebody just slapped them there to make the house look "better" for the sale by not having empty sockets there being unsightly. I've got one 14W CFL in there and that's plenty of light.)
    - dsr_ 9y ago
      Clearly you aren't doing your makeup in that mirror. However, no, 4x80W bulbs aren't needed. When someone does need to do makeup, replace them with 4 1200 lumen 5000K bulbs (15-17W each).
- wycx 9y ago
  Never underestimate the power of combined industry and government incompetence and greed. Australia is the world's top natural gas exporter, but also has the developed world's highest electricity prices. Natural gas prices have increased several fold in the domestic market over the last couple of years, with concomitant increase in electricity prices. Increases in electricity prices can definitely happen.
  - kwhitefoot 9y ago
    Surely Australia could be self sufficient just using solar.
gnopgnip 9y ago
You also have to consider the opportunity cost of the higher construction costs.
- ptaipale 9y ago
  The difference in construction cost may be not very significant compared to the rework cost needed to fix houses that have problems due to structures and arrangements that turn out to not work quite as intended.