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I'm just reading your blog now. The first article has this statement in it: >The fundamentals are broken and whatever happens to the price in the short term, t

by feelix 9y ago

I'm just reading your blog now. The first article has this statement in it: >The fundamentals are broken and whatever happens to the price in the short term, the long term trend should probably be downwards. I will no longer be taking part in Bitcoin development and have sold all my coins. That was written back in January 2016. I think you were wrong about that.

mike_hearn 9y ago
No, I think that everything in my blog post was correct. The statement about the price was deliberately vague ("long term", "should probably") because the Bitcoin price hasn't reflected the fundamentals for a very long time. You can't go straight from "this project is broken" to "thus the price will fall" because it's not an informed market, because of the large quantity of shady exchanges and so on. Take a look at what's been going on with Bitfinex to get a flavour. If you assume that eventually, one day, reality re-asserts itself, then the price should come to reflect the systems actual utility, which is very low. But you know the old saying about how markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? I wouldn't try shorting BTC regardless of how much you know about it.