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Do not invest in Uber. It would be downright stupid to do so. What is their product? Providing rides? No, that's what drivers do. Ubers product is running

Do not invest in Uber. It would be downright stupid to do so. What is their product? Providing rides? No, that's what drivers do. Ubers product is running a bunch of servers, a mobile app, and bearing the first-mover disadvantage of fighting with all the regulators about ridesharing. The problem with this is that those servers and that app? The thing that collects the money for Uber? No one needs Uber for that. Tomorrow someone could launch a fully peer to peer version of the software that runs in distributed fashion across all devices it gets installed upon, cutting them completely out of the loop, making rides cheaper and making drivers more money. And if Uber perfects self-driving cars if they are deluded enough to think they can replace their human drivers with a roving fleet of such... oh how childish and stupid that would be. I would give it 10 days before someone would introduce GUber which lets individuals with self-driving cars to time share them out when not in use via an app, destroying Uber swiftly and making every self-driving car they own (and maintain) a liability. The only way I could see them remaining interesting for more than a couple more years would be if they developed an awesome self-driving car - and gave it away for free. With anyone who accepted one obligated to permit the thing to be time-shared out by Uber to provide rides when its not being used with X number of hours of availability given per month. That would be hard to compete with, whether through peer to peer or individuals renting their self-driving cars...

soperj 9y ago
Their product is automated dispatch. Dispatch is what other cab companies do too.
neosat 9y ago
That's incredibly naive. There's a lot of accumulation of design and technology knowhow in various capabilities like dispatch, operations etc. "Tomorrow someone could launch a fully peer to peer version of the software that runs in distributed fashion across all devices it gets installed upon, cutting them completely out of the loop, making rides cheaper and making drivers more money." Why haven't they if it is as easy as you make it sound? It is definitely plausible that someone will do this but it is FAR from easy and won't happen 'tomorrow' as you put it.
ProAm 9y ago
If Uber loses it's ride providing capability, there is a TON of money in licensing the use of their software/infrastructure. They could layoff 80% of their staff and live off a pile of money they could bring in licensing software to other transportation related companies.
alaskamiller 9y ago
You're being silly. > Tomorrow someone could launch a fully peer to peer version of the software that runs in distributed fashion across all devices it gets installed upon Yeah, that already exists. It's called the phone app. You use it call a cab company for a ride. > cutting them completely out of the loop, making rides cheaper and making drivers more money. Rides don't get cheaper without Uber, they'll get more expensive. Pricing has been artificially deflated using VC money. Without that you get back to cab prices again.
nicolashahn 9y ago
I thought that was always their long term strategy. They're taking a loss with human-driven cars. I thought their plan was to spend their way into market dominance, then cut out the drivers once their self-driving cars are ready to go and finally start turning a profit.
koolba 9y ago
> Ubers product is running a bunch of servers, a mobile app, and bearing the first-mover disadvantage of fighting with all the regulators about ridesharing. So if we /s/ridesharing/home renting/ then we shouldn't invest in AirBnB either?
- CodeWriter23 9y ago
  You shouldn't invest in AirBNB because cities can't withstand inflated housing prices forever and will eventually crack down on "home sharing" aka real estate arbitrage in the short term rental market.
CodeWriter23 9y ago
Their market position is worth something, if played correctly. When you go to Target now, the only cleanser option is Comet. 30 years ago, there were at least 4 choices. The ride share industry will undergo a similar consolidation.
- alexashka 9y ago
  You may be comparing apples to oranges there. Stores have limited shelf space - online stores do not have that limitation, so there won't come a time when you have one app per category in an app store.

soperj 9y ago

Their product is automated dispatch. Dispatch is what other cab companies do too.

neosat 9y ago

That's incredibly naive. There's a lot of accumulation of design and technology knowhow in various capabilities like dispatch, operations etc. "Tomorrow someone could launch a fully peer to peer version of the software that runs in distributed fashion across all devices it gets installed upon, cutting them completely out of the loop, making rides cheaper and making drivers more money." Why haven't they if it is as easy as you make it sound? It is definitely plausible that someone will do this but it is FAR from easy and won't happen 'tomorrow' as you put it.

ProAm 9y ago

If Uber loses it's ride providing capability, there is a TON of money in licensing the use of their software/infrastructure. They could layoff 80% of their staff and live off a pile of money they could bring in licensing software to other transportation related companies.

alaskamiller 9y ago

You're being silly. > Tomorrow someone could launch a fully peer to peer version of the software that runs in distributed fashion across all devices it gets installed upon Yeah, that already exists. It's called the phone app. You use it call a cab company for a ride. > cutting them completely out of the loop, making rides cheaper and making drivers more money. Rides don't get cheaper without Uber, they'll get more expensive. Pricing has been artificially deflated using VC money. Without that you get back to cab prices again.

nicolashahn 9y ago

I thought that was always their long term strategy. They're taking a loss with human-driven cars. I thought their plan was to spend their way into market dominance, then cut out the drivers once their self-driving cars are ready to go and finally start turning a profit.

koolba 9y ago

> Ubers product is running a bunch of servers, a mobile app, and bearing the first-mover disadvantage of fighting with all the regulators about ridesharing. So if we /s/ridesharing/home renting/ then we shouldn't invest in AirBnB either?

CodeWriter23 9y ago
You shouldn't invest in AirBNB because cities can't withstand inflated housing prices forever and will eventually crack down on "home sharing" aka real estate arbitrage in the short term rental market.

CodeWriter23 9y ago

Their market position is worth something, if played correctly. When you go to Target now, the only cleanser option is Comet. 30 years ago, there were at least 4 choices. The ride share industry will undergo a similar consolidation.

alexashka 9y ago
You may be comparing apples to oranges there. Stores have limited shelf space - online stores do not have that limitation, so there won't come a time when you have one app per category in an app store.