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But why wouldn't those jobs be replaced by robots, given that we see pretty much every job being replaced by robots? If the time it takes to mechanize a new jo

But why wouldn't those jobs be replaced by robots, given that we see pretty much every job being replaced by robots? If the time it takes to mechanize a new job is shorter than a generation, the economy crumbles from the churn and permanently displaced workers. (I'd argue we're on the cusp of this.) Everyone is addressing that we've seen displaced labor before, but not a lot about the fact that the rate at which we're displacing labor is rapidly accelerating. (Or that massively displaced labor often only gets better after a generation of massive hardships.)

eridius 9y ago
Unless you're expecting "true" A.I. to show up anytime soon, only some categories of jobs can be automated, namely ones that involve fairly repetitive physical labor. Knowledge work and many types of physical jobs that require specialized expertise (such as electrician, plumber, etc) aren't going to be automated.
- deepnotderp 9y ago
  Oh sweet summer child, even the act of making deep learning models has been automated...
- SomeStupidPoint 9y ago
  As I understand it, technology is already displacing lots of support staff around knowledge work (clerks, paralegels, clinic administrators, filing specialists, etc) and is rapidly digging at specialist knowledge (disease diagnosis, algorithmic designs, etc). I don't expect "AI" to take over every job, I just expect technology to displace 95% of the people from 95% of the (good) jobs in ~30 years. I think once that 90% of the workforce becomes dislodged, we're not going to see the notion of "jobs" ever recover, particularly ones that are more than service industry positions. I think we're already seeing the tip of it in lost office jobs being replaced by service industry jobs -- hilariously, replacing knowledge and skilled work with repetitive physical labor.
  - eridius 9y ago
    I'll admit that "knowledge work" is a bit ambiguous. Work where the job is to know things, sure that can be automated. Work where you have to apply that knowledge is much further away from being automated.
  - zdkl 9y ago
    An interesting thought is that there might be an exodus of workers from areas that favour capital/competition to areas that support more socialist views of the labour market. Return your tired, your poor, your huddled masses...

eridius 9y ago

Unless you're expecting "true" A.I. to show up anytime soon, only some categories of jobs can be automated, namely ones that involve fairly repetitive physical labor. Knowledge work and many types of physical jobs that require specialized expertise (such as electrician, plumber, etc) aren't going to be automated.

deepnotderp 9y ago
Oh sweet summer child, even the act of making deep learning models has been automated...
SomeStupidPoint 9y ago
As I understand it, technology is already displacing lots of support staff around knowledge work (clerks, paralegels, clinic administrators, filing specialists, etc) and is rapidly digging at specialist knowledge (disease diagnosis, algorithmic designs, etc). I don't expect "AI" to take over every job, I just expect technology to displace 95% of the people from 95% of the (good) jobs in ~30 years. I think once that 90% of the workforce becomes dislodged, we're not going to see the notion of "jobs" ever recover, particularly ones that are more than service industry positions. I think we're already seeing the tip of it in lost office jobs being replaced by service industry jobs -- hilariously, replacing knowledge and skilled work with repetitive physical labor.
- eridius 9y ago
  I'll admit that "knowledge work" is a bit ambiguous. Work where the job is to know things, sure that can be automated. Work where you have to apply that knowledge is much further away from being automated.
- zdkl 9y ago
  An interesting thought is that there might be an exodus of workers from areas that favour capital/competition to areas that support more socialist views of the labour market. Return your tired, your poor, your huddled masses...