14 ms·
Looking at the crisis of social security and "performance" of my modest 401k funds I sometimes feel that my own successful startup (with a modest exit) may be m
by mikumetz 16y ago
Looking at the crisis of social security and "performance" of my modest 401k funds I sometimes feel that my own successful startup (with a modest exit) may be my only way to escape extreme poverty at older age. I doubt that anyone will hire a 65 year old programmer and I just don't see how SS+401k will be enough to deal with living/medical expenses. In that sense I'm desperate: starting a successful project is matter of survival.
Is it just me who is having similar thoughts?
- billpaetzke 16y agoYeah, I don't do 401k. Nor am I depending on social security. I plan to start my own business(es) and get wealthy that way. I don't care if it's "risky" to start a business. That's what I choose to do. Also, the more cash/liquid savings you have, the more once-of-a-lifetime invest opportunities you can seize. I've gleaned this info from existing millionaires such as Mark Cuban, the book "The Millionaire Next Door," and others.
- natrius 16y agoSo... you aren't saving for retirement at all? If so, relying on the success of a future business as your retirement fund isn't smart. If you're still saving elsewhere, that could be a sound plan as long as you don't sink it all into a business that fails. If that's your plan, then you are depending on Social Security or whatever social programs are available when you retire.
- billpaetzke 16y agoI am saving, but keeping it liquid. I save about 50% of my net income--which, as a mid-level software developer, is good money. Therefore, I can invest in myself now (or soon)--for example, starting a business. I'm not sure how much of my savings I'll need to start a business. But I'm a pretty conservative spender, so I'm not worried. I'm going to make it happen. Somehow. I understand that everyone's financial situation and aspirations are different. YMMV.
- loganfrederick 16y agoThis is the strategy I'll be taking, although I'm 20 and have little to save as is. If there's a bout of deflation or price/asset decline, keeping money in savings as opposed to 401(k) assets could earn a much better real return. The only reason people don't normally think of this is because this normally doesn't occur.
- dtegart 16y agoBut there are significant tax savings when using a 401K or IRA, which combined with the long term makes it quite unlikely that savings will out perform.
- natrius 16y agoPlus, you can probably put currency funds into a retirement account. I think that would function the same as holding cash, but I haven't completely thought through it.
- roel_v 16y agoBetting on deflation as the path to riches seems to be hardly a prudent strategy, let alone one to bet your retirement on. Yes I 'could' get a great return on investment if I buy that painting in the garage sale of my neighbor and it turns out to be a Monet, that doesn't make it a wise investment.
- c1sc0 16y agoI actually commend him for taking on that risk. One of the things that saddens me about society today is that we have become totally risk-averse.
- tlrobinson 16y agoHey, I know you! Seriously though, when are you going to start a company? There's at least 4 of us (Kevin M, John H, Dave N, me) working on 3 startups in SF. Join us!
- Tichy 16y agoSame here - I don't think a normal job would earn me enough to have a rent significantly above poverty level in 30 years. Especially not when accounting for inflation (1 million today won't be a million in 30 years).
- patio11 16y agoHypothetically supposing your logic is accurate, there should be an army of unemployed talented 65 year old programmers desperate to run your business(es) for you while you sit on the beach, right?
- ericd 16y agoWell, the field hasn't been a popular choice of trade for very long - not sure there's an army of 65 year old programmers, period.
- johnrob 16y agoA 65 year old programmer seems strange today because very few 65 year olds are even computer literate. I have to think that will change as time goes by (although I don't know far off 65 is for you). That said, I'm pretty sure there are some CS professors that are 65; if they can hold that gig we should be able to crank out software (I hope)!
- pgbovine 16y agoThat said, I'm pretty sure there are some CS professors that are 65; if they can hold that gig we should be able to crank out software (I hope)! there's no concept of tenure outside of academia, though :/
- danudey 16y agoSure there is, it's called 'job security'. It involves being the only person who understands how to run 40-year-old software. Unfortunately (fortunately?) I don't think that in 37 years, I'll be seeing a lot of systems that were installed in the 00's - the mentality these days is more about interconnection and interoperability than it was in the 70's. That said, I'm a systems administrator, not a programmer. There'll still be servers in 30 years, they'll just probably glow blue and float around the data centre unbounded by gravity, or something equally crazy.
- johkra 16y agoIf you're the only person understanding a system, it's a great risk for the company. They will eventually replace the old system and then you're worthless to them.
- Retric 16y agoIf you are one of the few people that understands the old system, you can easily be one of the people that set's up the new system, at which point your one of the few people that knows the new system. The secret is to get on board to projects trying to replace your system, and not become so over paid that they really want to replace you.
- startuprules 16y agoOr, emigrate to another country where healthcare/living expenses are cheap (most of the countries in Asia) or where the government won't (likely) default on its healthcare/social security obligations (Germany, France, Canada, Australia, Northern European Countries), unlike the US.
- chc 16y agoMy impression is that most countries don't have as generous of immigration laws as the US does, and judging by the experience most of my immigrant friends have gone through, that's saying something. Have I been FUD-ed?
- jacquesm 16y agoThat highly depends on where you're emigrating from and what your standing in life is. If you are looking to emigrate from a 'third world' (what a ridiculous term) country to a wealthier one it can be quite hard. If you already have family or friends somewhere that can make the process considerably easier.
- startuprules 16y agoCanada is really easy. Denmark is pretty good, so is Australia/New Zealand. Asian countries love high quality labor. Other than that, try investing or marrying into the country :)
- Alex63 16y agoAs an ex-pat Canadian, I worry about long term prospects for Canada. Even though the Canadian government seems to be doing the right things, economically, can Canada really avoid a crash if things in the US really tank? The US is Canada's largest trading partner.
- pyre 16y agoOntario is highly dependent on trade with the US for it's income, but BC and Alberta have economies that are more resource-based, IIRC. Prior to becoming a huge trading partner with the US, Canada's economy was largely resource-based (though I couldn't tell you which resources these were). This is why BC and Alberta were thriving when the Canadian dollar was worth more than the US dollar and the price of oil was sky-high, while Ontario was suffering. That said, I'm not sure of the larger implications to the Canadian economy as a whole if the US tanks. It may be simple to move to trade with China, though it may not.
- MrFoof 16y agoI've a similar mindset, though where I'll deviate is I'm 28. For me I think the reality is that I expect computer literacy to continue to increase, while some slick abstractions will be developed in the next 25 years. Granted, software developers will still be in demand, yet there'll be more labor available in the market, and much of it will be more accessible which will drive down salaries a bit as the labor supply starts to catch up with demand. I also lack a formal degree, though real-world experience and self-teaching myself most of a CS and Mathematics undergrad curriculum has prevented that from becoming a problem. Also, I'm watching my 60+ year-old parents go through it. They sold their house to free up cash. I had to bail them out (for 18 months) when I was 22-23 for a non-trivial amounts of money, since no one else could've helped them out. My uncle and aunt are in the same boat. My sister is ridden with debt. Parents of neighborhood kids are going through similar motions (selling the house to free up cash). My plan? * Save at least 35% of my net pay every year. Already done, shooting for 40% now. Goal is 50% (at current income level/standard of living). Credit is a tool that I do use to my advantage at times, but it's rare. Most everything is cash, including major purchases (i.e. car). * Develop something to provide a 2nd income stream of at least $850/mo that only can go into savings. That's real money over the long haul. * Minimize purchases of durable goods. I expect 15 years out of the car (only buy a car that makes you smile every time you get in it). My furniture will outlive me. I get 5-ish years out of clothing (and don't own much). Electronics either need to last 10+ years or have high resale value. * Plan to change careers in 17-20 years, especially if there's tangible demand in a new field. Mostly since I expect to be bored. Barring that, time to get a "real" engineering degree.
- SMrF 16y agoIf your startup projects have failed you, you don't think your 401k plus social security are enough, you are within two decades or so of retirement and you are still "just a coder" I know exactly what you should do: 1. Pick a company you don't hate 2. Get hired 3. learn their codebase inside and out 4. DON'T QUIT Pretty soon you will be the only person around who knows about system "X" and they will be glad to keep you around past 65. My office is filled with COBOL programmers that took this path. Hell, we even recently hired a guy in his 60's, because that's just how old COBOL programmers are. Alternatively you could get your MBA and go the CTO/VP of engineering route. This seems better to me, (as a backup plan to startup failure).
- d2viant 16y agoThis is completely true. I'd say additionally that the smart COBOL programmers in their 60's "retire" and then return the following week as consultants making 50% more. That has been my experience working with them.
- nandemo 16y agoWhat is this talk of "extreme poverty"? Let's assume for the sake of argument that Americans earning the minimum wage are living in "extreme poverty" (which is not true in my opinion, but let's be conservative). The median household income in US is around U$50k. http://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_S... So the median household is already living above poverty. You alone can earn more than $50k as a junior programmer. You probably have above average programming skills, and will eventually earn 100k if you get a job in a big company and stick to it. You don't even need to live too frugally. You only need to pretend your income is $50k -- you'll still live at least well as the median household -- and sock the rest away in very conservative investments.
- Retric 16y agoIf your talented there is huge demand for 60+ year old programmers. The issue is expected salary increases with age, and if your skill's don't keep up it becomes harder to find a job. PS: My father was a 63 year old programmer the day he died, and believe me he was well paid and in high demand.
- mindcrime 16y agoIs it just me who is having similar thoughts? Nope. I'm 36 (turn 37 in a week) and I have similar thoughts. There is definitely a sense of desperation at work. I do believe that, at this point in my life, the only realistic shot I have at living out my dreams for the future is to build a successful startup. So you are definitely not alone. :-)