4 ms·
I think the idea of a black swan is something which you don't even imagine before you encounter it, ie: nobody would even think about computing the probability
by 21 9y ago
I think the idea of a black swan is something which you don't even imagine before you encounter it, ie: nobody would even think about computing the probability of a black swan (bird) existing.
- kbutler 9y agoWhile unimaginability may fit the original conception of a black swan, Taleb's book is "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (not unimaginable or inconceivable) and defines a black swan as "an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility." http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-ta...