3 ms·
its the gamblers fallacy black 17 has not come up for ages so its more likely to come up - looks like the journalist does not understand probability
by walshemj 9y ago
its the gamblers fallacy black 17 has not come up for ages so its more likely to come up - looks like the journalist does not understand probability
- ncallaway 9y agoExcept there's a very good ability to know precisely the odds of what the ball landing on black 17 are. It's a very complicated question to determine what a 1/500 odds of flooding are. So, it's very possible that this isn't the gambler's fallacy, but rather the model itself is inaccurate.
- walshemj 9y agoor the massive building growth without building the required infrastructure
- mikeash 9y agoIt's more analogous to getting black 17 six times in a row. It is possible, but it's weird enough to justify thinking that you've misunderstood the game, or the game has changed.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- walshemj 9y agoreally voted down for pointing out probability 101 I would have expected better mathematical knowledge on HN
- Piskvorrr 9y agoProbability 101 begins with a qualifier: "Assuming independent events..." This can mean two things: a) a set of events that is evidently possible, but increasingly improbable b) events that are not independent