2 ms·

I don't think I understand what you're saying. To be able to say things about 0.2%/year events, we would need many thousands of years of data on an unchanging s

I don't think I understand what you're saying. To be able to say things about 0.2%/year events, we would need many thousands of years of data on an unchanging system.

sjg007 9y ago
This is not true. You can assume a uniform prior and run your model through bayes law and come up with an estimate.
- idlewords 9y ago
  That's called "making things up", but sure.