4 ms·

If we have a baseline of 500 year flood level at 0.2% and it's well over that then yes there is a basis for making this claim. I wouldn't make this claim thoug

• idlewords 9y ago
  I don't think I understand what you're saying. To be able to say things about 0.2%/year events, we would need many thousands of years of data on an unchanging system.
  • sjg007 9y ago
    This is not true. You can assume a uniform prior and run your model through bayes law and come up with an estimate.
    • idlewords 9y ago
      That's called "making things up", but sure.
• ars 9y ago
  > If we have a baseline of 500 year flood level at 0.2% That's exactly the point. We don't have that baseline, despite acting as if we do. We would need data going back 5,000 years to do that.
  • tertius 9y ago
    You're right. But he's going off of what is established, whether that is faulty or not. So his claim is based on something faulty, but it is based on something. Your qualm is not with him or his statements, rather with the standards for current 10 year/100 year/500 year estimates.