The whole idea of risk, winning and loosing is very warped from the outset. We come from small groups with very limited ressources. Taking risks, making a plan,

The whole idea of risk, winning and loosing is very warped from the outset. We come from small groups with very limited ressources. Taking risks, making a plan, always involved the power structure. There always could be only one plan, one chieftain executing it, else there be civil war and group breakup. If the plan failed, there where to options- the situation and the power structure would be salvaged, and the failure nver happend. And/Or a scapegoat would be found and ousted for the failure - a principle we declared responsibility (although undoing the damage would have been.. slightly more responsibe). Anyway, if you didnt sleep throughout your statistics classes, you know also that our perceptions of likelihood for plans to fail or succeed, our peception of luck- is also totally off. So what actually is a good plan? A good plan, is not one particular chain of actions, and tree of scenarios growing out of that base-scenario - but a investment into a likelihood enhancing environment for a whole overlapping forrest of such scenario trees. Take the idea of a book-shop for cooking recipes in medieval europe. That sounds like a great plan. Its what your family would support, and thus you would buy scribes and set out on this adventure. Now take the plan of selling printing presses. Everyone of your son and daughters could march of, producing there own version of a book-shop. You do not invest into a single "plan" and your shuffeling of investments, into succeeding or away from dieing branches of the scenario, might look like cowardice, indecisivness and pivoting - but in reality, you are just aware of human limitations and overcome them. For founders this is a dangerous way of thinking. Because at the larval stage, a company is that tribe, that family, in desperate need of the ilusion of one plan, one scenario, the ilusion of a chieftain knowing what tomorrows weather will bring. But keep that forrest in the backyard of your mind, and when nobody is watching - plant some seeds. There might grow a forrest.