3 ms·

Cue discussion on the works of Tabeb, and what a horrible job humans do at predicting the frequency of rare events.

kbutler 9y ago
Parent means Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ And yes, basically we don't understand the actual probability of a "500-year storm", so our 0.2% chance per year is unreliable at best, more likely misleading. Just like Europeans didn't know the actual probability of a black swan until they found them in Australia.
- 21 9y ago
  I think the idea of a black swan is something which you don't even imagine before you encounter it, ie: nobody would even think about computing the probability of a black swan (bird) existing.
  - kbutler 9y ago
    While unimaginability may fit the original conception of a black swan, Taleb's book is "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (not unimaginable or inconceivable) and defines a black swan as "an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility." http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-ta...
dragonwriter 9y ago
Or, more on point, the common disclaimer, “past performance is no guarantee for future results”.
21 9y ago
He just tweeted about it: "When people talk about 500 y floods or 100 year rain, they are klueless abt tail distribution. The empirical distribution is NOT empirical!" (and a picture with math equations) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902632121407299585 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902632121407299585
- vacri 9y ago
  The problem isn't the understanding of statistics, the problem is a grossly-misleading name.
aaron695 9y ago
Humans also predict un-rare events badly. ie The time it takes to complete a work project. Tabeb states the obvious, almost tautologies, without solutions, behind the wall of philosophy. Pointless stuff.

Parent means Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ And yes, basically we don't understand the actual probability of a "500-year storm", so our 0.2% chance per year is unreliable at best, more likely misleading. Just like Europeans didn't know the actual probability of a black swan until they found them in Australia.

21 9y ago
I think the idea of a black swan is something which you don't even imagine before you encounter it, ie: nobody would even think about computing the probability of a black swan (bird) existing.
- kbutler 9y ago
  While unimaginability may fit the original conception of a black swan, Taleb's book is "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (not unimaginable or inconceivable) and defines a black swan as "an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility." http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-ta...

dragonwriter 9y ago

Or, more on point, the common disclaimer, “past performance is no guarantee for future results”.

21 9y ago

He just tweeted about it: "When people talk about 500 y floods or 100 year rain, they are klueless abt tail distribution. The empirical distribution is NOT empirical!" (and a picture with math equations) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902632121407299585 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902632121407299585

vacri 9y ago
The problem isn't the understanding of statistics, the problem is a grossly-misleading name.

aaron695 9y ago

Humans also predict un-rare events badly. ie The time it takes to complete a work project. Tabeb states the obvious, almost tautologies, without solutions, behind the wall of philosophy. Pointless stuff.