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I don't know very much about geopolitical whatevers, but can anyone explain-like-I'm-five why everyone assumes that taking out the North Korean government has t

I don't know very much about geopolitical whatevers, but can anyone explain-like-I'm-five why everyone assumes that taking out the North Korean government has to involve 25 million refugees (which is the entire population of the country) streaming into China and South Korea? They're not going to nuke all of NK into inhabitability, people will still live there. I'm sure some people will want to leave now that they're not under pain of death for doing so, but probably the vast majority will stay. Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did? (Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious, because every time this subject comes up, everyone starts throwing around the "China doesn't want 25M refugees overnight" argument, so I assume there's some background I'm missing.)

golergka 9y ago
> Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country. Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.
- tome 9y ago
  > Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25 million!
  - NedIsakoff 9y ago
    The comparison is East Germany vs West Germany, which did.
pmoriarty 9y ago
"Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?" Those were largely peaceful changes. Neither Germany nor the Soviet Union got nuked nor have millions of people die in a war, as is very likely to happen if war breaks out with North Korea. If they had, then yes, there would have been probably millions of refugees trying to run for their lives. Take a look at any other major war and you'll see that this is in fact what happens.
williamscales 9y ago
To me it seems like this assumption is based on the fact that relatively many North Koreans try to escape the country even though it's very dangerous. If trying to leave the country isn't going to get someone killed by the government any more, maybe more people will try to leave in search of better conditions. Will it be 25 million? Who knows, probably not, but you could imagine whole villages leaving together.
mikeash 9y ago
Keep in mind that NK is in far worse shape than most (all?) of the Communist countries whose governments collapsed around 1991. Not that life in those countries was all sunshine and rainbows and fluffy rabbits, but the life in NK is a whole different scale. Those governments also fell internally, meaning the people were pushing for a change and were somewhat ready to make it happen. Invading North Korea would be pretty different. One big unknown (at least to me) is the level of indoctrination. Related to the above, a lot of people in Eastern Europe were fed up with their government, didn't believe anything they said, and were ready to build something better. It seems like a lot more North Koreans might buy into their government's views, in which case they might flee the "evil imperialist invaders." Heck, even without indoctrination, a reasonable person might not want to be near the fighting. 25 million refugees is obviously a bit much. The entire country won't pick up and move. But it would probably be many millions.
tinbad 9y ago
Looks like by 2007, the war in Iraq resulted in about 2 million[1] refugees, that's roughly 5% of the population. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq#Iraq_War_.282003.E2.80.9311.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq#Iraq_War_.282...

golergka 9y ago

> Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country. Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.

tome 9y ago
> Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25 million!
- NedIsakoff 9y ago
  The comparison is East Germany vs West Germany, which did.

pmoriarty 9y ago

"Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?" Those were largely peaceful changes. Neither Germany nor the Soviet Union got nuked nor have millions of people die in a war, as is very likely to happen if war breaks out with North Korea. If they had, then yes, there would have been probably millions of refugees trying to run for their lives. Take a look at any other major war and you'll see that this is in fact what happens.

williamscales 9y ago

To me it seems like this assumption is based on the fact that relatively many North Koreans try to escape the country even though it's very dangerous. If trying to leave the country isn't going to get someone killed by the government any more, maybe more people will try to leave in search of better conditions. Will it be 25 million? Who knows, probably not, but you could imagine whole villages leaving together.

mikeash 9y ago

Keep in mind that NK is in far worse shape than most (all?) of the Communist countries whose governments collapsed around 1991. Not that life in those countries was all sunshine and rainbows and fluffy rabbits, but the life in NK is a whole different scale. Those governments also fell internally, meaning the people were pushing for a change and were somewhat ready to make it happen. Invading North Korea would be pretty different. One big unknown (at least to me) is the level of indoctrination. Related to the above, a lot of people in Eastern Europe were fed up with their government, didn't believe anything they said, and were ready to build something better. It seems like a lot more North Koreans might buy into their government's views, in which case they might flee the "evil imperialist invaders." Heck, even without indoctrination, a reasonable person might not want to be near the fighting. 25 million refugees is obviously a bit much. The entire country won't pick up and move. But it would probably be many millions.

tinbad 9y ago

Looks like by 2007, the war in Iraq resulted in about 2 million[1] refugees, that's roughly 5% of the population. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq#Iraq_War_.282003.E2.80.9311.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq#Iraq_War_.282...