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Seems Kim called the world's bluff on that missile "shield" touted ad nauseam whenever NK pops off a cracker. This thing flew basically through the middle of Ja

Seems Kim called the world's bluff on that missile "shield" touted ad nauseam whenever NK pops off a cracker. This thing flew basically through the middle of Japan's airspace and dropped in the drink on the other side. Getting the distinct impression that most of that American missile shield hardware is kept down with tent pens.

ISL 9y ago
If the trajectory was measured and expected to miss Japan, there would be no need to use any defense system. Those playing defense have a lot of incentive to keep their plans and capabilities quiet and uncertain until they are absolutely required. Once the defensive strategies are employed openly, the offense can more-reliably develop countermeasures.
- kobeya 9y ago
  It went over Japan. ICBMs are capable of adjusting their target mid-flight. There's no way to know it wasn't going to hit Japan.
  - castis 9y ago
    It is (from my extreme sideline position) unknowable whether or not this particular weapon was capable of adjusting trajectory mid-flight. The point, however, is that it didn't and no shield test was deemed necessary. If it was calculated that it wasn't going to hit Japan, whatever was used to calculate it ended up being correct. Using a missile shield when it's not needed reveals the location of installations, which can make them deliberate future targets.
    - ageofwant 9y ago
      That is an unreasonable conclusion to reach given the evidence. You cannot reasonably allow a missile, potentially carrying a dirty bomb to enter your airspace, and relatively centrally so, and not act. Occam's razor suggests there is no shield.
      - notyourday 9y ago
        Or it is known that the current state of the shield matches the first generation of Patriot interceptors, which means that it in a case where hail mary is not needed the US would not engage it.
      - castis 9y ago
        Invoking philosophical razors does not change the reality that the missile did not hit anything of importance. If you throw a punch and miss me (whether intentional or not), and I do not immediately react, it does not imply that I am incapable of defending myself.
        ageofwant 9y ago
        It demonstrated clearly that Kim can hit any town in Japan and surrounding territories if he so chooses. The Japanese government went to some trouble to disseminate that information via SMS. If they could shoot down that missile and not terrify their own population they would have done so.
        castis 9y ago
        > they would have done so What actually happened proves that this would have been unnecessary.
      - dtparr 9y ago
        It's not exactly your "airspace" at 550km (the reported apogee) as, among other things, there's no air. That's 150km higher than the ISS orbits. It won't be a perfect ballistic curve due to the boost phase not being instantaneous and drag during the endoatmospheric periods, but based on how far it flew and how far it overshot Japan by, the halfway point between launch and landing is just at or just west of the Japanese coast. So a conservative estimate would be that when it crossed over a Japanese land mass, it was at least 500km up. So saying "you can't reasonably allow it" is a little odd when I don't think they could physically have stopped it at that altitude. By the time it dropped down into the reported range of THAAD, it'd have been well past Japan.
  - kalleboo 9y ago
    From what I've read, the most reliable period to shoot down these things is on their down-trajectory. At which point it was probably already no longer over Japan. edit: for instance this Reddit comment https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_fired_a_missile_over_hokkaido_first/dm9a182/ https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_f... > The THAAD system that is deployed in Japan intercepts an incoming missile as it is coming down on the target, with a maximum altitude of about 150 km. Which gets you to reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_De... > Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.
    - kobeya 9y ago
      The most reliable time to shoot down a missile is when it is just lifting off. It's moving slowly, lots of fuel, etc. All it takes is a high powered laser hitting it almost anywhere in its cross section.
      - kalleboo 9y ago
        Well the most reliable time to destroy a missile is before it's built, but beggars can't be choosers :)
      - jff 9y ago
        So you're saying all Japan needs to do is station high-powered lasers near all North Korean missile sites? Seems easy enough.
        kobeya 9y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1
- 6nf 9y ago
  If it was ballistic then sure, you can ignore it. But a missile can change course so I don't buy this excuse that 'we knew it would miss'
sdrothrock 9y ago
Japan has a limited number of land-based shield elements (radius of ~20 mi) that are deployed rather sparsely; they're looking into purchasing Aegis Ashore, which is supposed to have greater coverage... for next year. I believe about seven destroyers in the Japanese navy are equipped with Aegis and can intercept; the 7th Fleet likewise, though not all of their destroyers are in Japanese territory at the moment (in fact, two of them were the ones in the news for crashes).

ISL 9y ago

If the trajectory was measured and expected to miss Japan, there would be no need to use any defense system. Those playing defense have a lot of incentive to keep their plans and capabilities quiet and uncertain until they are absolutely required. Once the defensive strategies are employed openly, the offense can more-reliably develop countermeasures.

kobeya 9y ago
It went over Japan. ICBMs are capable of adjusting their target mid-flight. There's no way to know it wasn't going to hit Japan.
- castis 9y ago
  It is (from my extreme sideline position) unknowable whether or not this particular weapon was capable of adjusting trajectory mid-flight. The point, however, is that it didn't and no shield test was deemed necessary. If it was calculated that it wasn't going to hit Japan, whatever was used to calculate it ended up being correct. Using a missile shield when it's not needed reveals the location of installations, which can make them deliberate future targets.
  - ageofwant 9y ago
    That is an unreasonable conclusion to reach given the evidence. You cannot reasonably allow a missile, potentially carrying a dirty bomb to enter your airspace, and relatively centrally so, and not act. Occam's razor suggests there is no shield.
    - notyourday 9y ago
      Or it is known that the current state of the shield matches the first generation of Patriot interceptors, which means that it in a case where hail mary is not needed the US would not engage it.
    - castis 9y ago
      Invoking philosophical razors does not change the reality that the missile did not hit anything of importance. If you throw a punch and miss me (whether intentional or not), and I do not immediately react, it does not imply that I am incapable of defending myself.
      - ageofwant 9y ago
        It demonstrated clearly that Kim can hit any town in Japan and surrounding territories if he so chooses. The Japanese government went to some trouble to disseminate that information via SMS. If they could shoot down that missile and not terrify their own population they would have done so.
        castis 9y ago
        > they would have done so What actually happened proves that this would have been unnecessary.
    - dtparr 9y ago
      It's not exactly your "airspace" at 550km (the reported apogee) as, among other things, there's no air. That's 150km higher than the ISS orbits. It won't be a perfect ballistic curve due to the boost phase not being instantaneous and drag during the endoatmospheric periods, but based on how far it flew and how far it overshot Japan by, the halfway point between launch and landing is just at or just west of the Japanese coast. So a conservative estimate would be that when it crossed over a Japanese land mass, it was at least 500km up. So saying "you can't reasonably allow it" is a little odd when I don't think they could physically have stopped it at that altitude. By the time it dropped down into the reported range of THAAD, it'd have been well past Japan.
- kalleboo 9y ago
  From what I've read, the most reliable period to shoot down these things is on their down-trajectory. At which point it was probably already no longer over Japan. edit: for instance this Reddit comment https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_fired_a_missile_over_hokkaido_first/dm9a182/ https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_f... > The THAAD system that is deployed in Japan intercepts an incoming missile as it is coming down on the target, with a maximum altitude of about 150 km. Which gets you to reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_De... > Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.
  - kobeya 9y ago
    The most reliable time to shoot down a missile is when it is just lifting off. It's moving slowly, lots of fuel, etc. All it takes is a high powered laser hitting it almost anywhere in its cross section.
    - kalleboo 9y ago
      Well the most reliable time to destroy a missile is before it's built, but beggars can't be choosers :)
    - jff 9y ago
      So you're saying all Japan needs to do is station high-powered lasers near all North Korean missile sites? Seems easy enough.
      - kobeya 9y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1
6nf 9y ago
If it was ballistic then sure, you can ignore it. But a missile can change course so I don't buy this excuse that 'we knew it would miss'

sdrothrock 9y ago

Japan has a limited number of land-based shield elements (radius of ~20 mi) that are deployed rather sparsely; they're looking into purchasing Aegis Ashore, which is supposed to have greater coverage... for next year. I believe about seven destroyers in the Japanese navy are equipped with Aegis and can intercept; the 7th Fleet likewise, though not all of their destroyers are in Japanese territory at the moment (in fact, two of them were the ones in the news for crashes).