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I posted this to a friend's facebook when he asked, I need to re-write it better but the idea is there. No one wants DPRK to fall or KJU to die, its too many fu

I posted this to a friend's facebook when he asked, I need to re-write it better but the idea is there. No one wants DPRK to fall or KJU to die, its too many fucking refugees. What you don't realize is that no one (I don't mean average person, I mean politicians and leaders) really cares what the DPRK (by extension the Kims) do to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else. China likes having the DPRK there as a buffer against the American forces in South Korea. It also provides a distraction as China is claiming the entire South China Sea. South Korea while officially saying they want re-unification doesn't really want it. If and when the DPRK falls, you got 25 million refugees who are barely able to function in the modern world streaming to China or South Korea. China will not take the refugee in, they will either deploy PLA at the border and stop them or take over the DPRK as a puppet state. The economic cost to absorb the refugees is enormous. In the 20 years after West Germany and East Germany merged, over 1.3 trillion euros was spent on the former East Germany and its still behind economically the former West Germany. The GDP per capita for East Germany at the time of the merger was 10000USD (1990 dollars) and right now for DPRK it's less than 1500USD (current dollars). West Germany was also economically much stronger at the time then South Korea is now and has a much higher population (~60M West, ~15M East) compared to the Koreas (~50M South, ~25M North). South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany. EDIT: read this instead, this guy explained what I said much better on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_koreas_hidden_labor_camps_exposed_a_new_un/ca3mnrf/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...

ricardobeat 9y ago
Considering the cost of war as seen in the middle east, wouldn't it be cheaper to make some kind of deal where the West, SK and Japan dump massive amounts of resources into improving NK's economy, in exchange for the regime opening up? Would they refuse a trillion-dollar offer?
yomly 9y ago
I get what you're saying, but I think South Korea would bear that cost. I personally know people whose family was split by the arbitrary North/South border divide. For them, I think absorbing and reintegrating the population of the North Korean means more to them than just an economic burden. Given that the South Korean government were elected democratically, you would hope that they would be prepared to represent the interests of the population.
- thanksgiving 9y ago
  I am sure you're right and I hope the old saying "where there is a will, there is a way" is true, but the numbers paint a very bleak picture. Even if the will is there, as GP said: > South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany. Realistically, a merger has to make sense for the chebols/conglomerates, right? Edit: also where do China PR and Japan stand on unification? I've read claims that neither is very fond of it?
  - mikeash 9y ago
    It's worth pointing out that East Germany was one of the most (maybe the most) prosperous countries in the Soviet sphere, whereas North Korea is horrendously poor. To put some numbers on it, the East German GDP in 1989 was about $160 billion, with a population of about 16 million, so about $10,000 per capita. North Korea's GDP is about $12 billion with a population of about 25 million, for a per-capita GDP of about $600.
- NedIsakoff 9y ago
  That's one example, but time is against it. The generation that was split by the border divide/war is dying out. The younger generation doesn't really care about the DPRK.
  - exhilaration 9y ago
    I've been told the same thing about Ireland and Northern Ireland - the younger generation of Irish don't care at all about Northern Ireland.
    - jaymzcampbell 9y ago
      With Brexit and the possibility of a return to a "hard" border that is rapidly changing I think (ex-Newry, NI, person here, now living in London). Though I'd say this hasn't gone away at all - there's plenty of "young people" taking part in this visceral display every year[1] and it to me at least, every time I go back it seems to be getting worse not better for at least the past 10 years. There's been lots of talk that this won't happen but it's hard to see how there won't be at least some sort of checks reintroduced. This isn't too unusual, we had the Common Travel Area[2] since 20s well before Schengen but a return to any sort of militarized or "formal" border could easily kick it all off again in the border counties. For an idea of the difficulty here's what crossing the border looks like the BBC did a little drone video where it's very easy to see how "leaky" it would be [3]. When I was growing up it looked more like this for the main routes [4]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz35L-TBt9M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz35L-TBt9M [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area [3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-40104333/crossing-the-border-four-times-in-10-minutes http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-40104333/cr... [4] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/a3/54/23a354665613f3aa695f0e5c309d7b2b--british-soldier-british-army.jpg https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/a3/54/23a354665613f3aa695f0e5c3...
isseu 9y ago
4 years ago I read this excellent comment on reddit explaining the same topic. (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_koreas_hidden_labor_camps_exposed_a_new_un/ca3mnrf/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...)
- NedIsakoff 9y ago
  That guy did a much better job then I, extra credit.
csomar 9y ago
Looking through Google Maps, my guess is that they are better than the average non-developed country. They just don't have open trade, so their GDP per capita is very low comparing to reality. For example, they have two underground metro lines. For a city of only 2.5million, that's more than what other developing countries have. I think they'll be really fine.
- nazgul17 9y ago
  Sure, but they still don't have an electric nor an internet network. I also wonder what is their level of education.
apetresc 9y ago
I don't know very much about geopolitical whatevers, but can anyone explain-like-I'm-five why everyone assumes that taking out the North Korean government has to involve 25 million refugees (which is the entire population of the country) streaming into China and South Korea? They're not going to nuke all of NK into inhabitability, people will still live there. I'm sure some people will want to leave now that they're not under pain of death for doing so, but probably the vast majority will stay. Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did? (Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious, because every time this subject comes up, everyone starts throwing around the "China doesn't want 25M refugees overnight" argument, so I assume there's some background I'm missing.)
- golergka 9y ago
  > Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country. Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.
  - tome 9y ago
    > Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25 million!
    - NedIsakoff 9y ago
      The comparison is East Germany vs West Germany, which did.
- pmoriarty 9y ago
  "Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?" Those were largely peaceful changes. Neither Germany nor the Soviet Union got nuked nor have millions of people die in a war, as is very likely to happen if war breaks out with North Korea. If they had, then yes, there would have been probably millions of refugees trying to run for their lives. Take a look at any other major war and you'll see that this is in fact what happens.
_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
Please explain US interventions in South America and invasions in Middle America in light of "do to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else".
- mikeash 9y ago
  What's the relevance of that? They're not claiming that this is a universal principle.
baklavabook 9y ago
I said this in the other thread (before someone maliciously took the thread down using the dupe command): If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible government to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time ago. So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then - I hope the world punishes China and North Korea
- bluGill 9y ago
  China wants us a lot more than that puppet. China has uses for that puppet which why it exists, but if that puppet starts attacking the US it is safe to assume China will lead the war against them.
devdoomari 9y ago
so... we should wait until NK population shrinks? or should we wait until NK prepares its population for its demise? whatever you're suggesting, it's about now or some future time...

ricardobeat 9y ago

Considering the cost of war as seen in the middle east, wouldn't it be cheaper to make some kind of deal where the West, SK and Japan dump massive amounts of resources into improving NK's economy, in exchange for the regime opening up? Would they refuse a trillion-dollar offer?

yomly 9y ago

I get what you're saying, but I think South Korea would bear that cost. I personally know people whose family was split by the arbitrary North/South border divide. For them, I think absorbing and reintegrating the population of the North Korean means more to them than just an economic burden. Given that the South Korean government were elected democratically, you would hope that they would be prepared to represent the interests of the population.

thanksgiving 9y ago
I am sure you're right and I hope the old saying "where there is a will, there is a way" is true, but the numbers paint a very bleak picture. Even if the will is there, as GP said: > South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany. Realistically, a merger has to make sense for the chebols/conglomerates, right? Edit: also where do China PR and Japan stand on unification? I've read claims that neither is very fond of it?
- mikeash 9y ago
  It's worth pointing out that East Germany was one of the most (maybe the most) prosperous countries in the Soviet sphere, whereas North Korea is horrendously poor. To put some numbers on it, the East German GDP in 1989 was about $160 billion, with a population of about 16 million, so about $10,000 per capita. North Korea's GDP is about $12 billion with a population of about 25 million, for a per-capita GDP of about $600.
NedIsakoff 9y ago
That's one example, but time is against it. The generation that was split by the border divide/war is dying out. The younger generation doesn't really care about the DPRK.
- exhilaration 9y ago
  I've been told the same thing about Ireland and Northern Ireland - the younger generation of Irish don't care at all about Northern Ireland.
  - jaymzcampbell 9y ago
    With Brexit and the possibility of a return to a "hard" border that is rapidly changing I think (ex-Newry, NI, person here, now living in London). Though I'd say this hasn't gone away at all - there's plenty of "young people" taking part in this visceral display every year[1] and it to me at least, every time I go back it seems to be getting worse not better for at least the past 10 years. There's been lots of talk that this won't happen but it's hard to see how there won't be at least some sort of checks reintroduced. This isn't too unusual, we had the Common Travel Area[2] since 20s well before Schengen but a return to any sort of militarized or "formal" border could easily kick it all off again in the border counties. For an idea of the difficulty here's what crossing the border looks like the BBC did a little drone video where it's very easy to see how "leaky" it would be [3]. When I was growing up it looked more like this for the main routes [4]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz35L-TBt9M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz35L-TBt9M [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area [3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-40104333/crossing-the-border-four-times-in-10-minutes http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-40104333/cr... [4] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/a3/54/23a354665613f3aa695f0e5c309d7b2b--british-soldier-british-army.jpg https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/a3/54/23a354665613f3aa695f0e5c3...

isseu 9y ago

4 years ago I read this excellent comment on reddit explaining the same topic. (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_koreas_hidden_labor_camps_exposed_a_new_un/ca3mnrf/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...)

NedIsakoff 9y ago
That guy did a much better job then I, extra credit.

csomar 9y ago

Looking through Google Maps, my guess is that they are better than the average non-developed country. They just don't have open trade, so their GDP per capita is very low comparing to reality. For example, they have two underground metro lines. For a city of only 2.5million, that's more than what other developing countries have. I think they'll be really fine.

nazgul17 9y ago
Sure, but they still don't have an electric nor an internet network. I also wonder what is their level of education.

apetresc 9y ago

I don't know very much about geopolitical whatevers, but can anyone explain-like-I'm-five why everyone assumes that taking out the North Korean government has to involve 25 million refugees (which is the entire population of the country) streaming into China and South Korea? They're not going to nuke all of NK into inhabitability, people will still live there. I'm sure some people will want to leave now that they're not under pain of death for doing so, but probably the vast majority will stay. Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did? (Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious, because every time this subject comes up, everyone starts throwing around the "China doesn't want 25M refugees overnight" argument, so I assume there's some background I'm missing.)

golergka 9y ago
> Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country. Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.
- tome 9y ago
  > Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25 million!
  - NedIsakoff 9y ago
    The comparison is East Germany vs West Germany, which did.
pmoriarty 9y ago
"Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?" Those were largely peaceful changes. Neither Germany nor the Soviet Union got nuked nor have millions of people die in a war, as is very likely to happen if war breaks out with North Korea. If they had, then yes, there would have been probably millions of refugees trying to run for their lives. Take a look at any other major war and you'll see that this is in fact what happens.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago

Please explain US interventions in South America and invasions in Middle America in light of "do to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else".

mikeash 9y ago
What's the relevance of that? They're not claiming that this is a universal principle.

baklavabook 9y ago

I said this in the other thread (before someone maliciously took the thread down using the dupe command): If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible government to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time ago. So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then - I hope the world punishes China and North Korea

bluGill 9y ago
China wants us a lot more than that puppet. China has uses for that puppet which why it exists, but if that puppet starts attacking the US it is safe to assume China will lead the war against them.

devdoomari 9y ago

so... we should wait until NK population shrinks? or should we wait until NK prepares its population for its demise? whatever you're suggesting, it's about now or some future time...