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In hindsight, it worked out OK for most people. Most of the time it does. The problem is that sometimes it turns out really really bad. I'm from Florida and I w

In hindsight, it worked out OK for most people. Most of the time it does. The problem is that sometimes it turns out really really bad. I'm from Florida and I worked in construction during college. I was down in South Florida after Andrew. Ground zero was like a warzone. No street signs, traffic lights, etc. Almost every single house was missing a roof. There was no place to buy fuel, food, and water. I saw a lot of human misery. Especially among the poorer population. It was like this for months because of the scale of devastation. We still feel the effects of Andrew in FL. We probably have the most stringent building codes in the country and the highest insurance rates. Major catastrophes like Andrew and Katrina are black swans. Nobody predicts the level of devastation ahead of time. It's usually hindisght, like "it was so obvious!". Therefore, I think it's ignorant to not at least advise people to evacuate at some point. Maybe not 2 hours before the storm hits. Days maybe? They always do advise evacuation of coastal regions here in FL. I always listen too.

eximius 9y ago
Katrina was not a poor prediction of the storm, it was the levee that broke combined with a depressed geometry that made it so disastrous. And we could not have advised people to evacuate days ahead. Thursday morning, it was just a tropical storm. Suddenly, around lunchtime, it was a category 3 and my business launched business continuity planning procedures. By the end of the day, it was a cat 4. It made landfall the next day. Evacuation would have only put those people outdoors when the storm hit.
- ryanackley 9y ago
  You have made my point twice. Nobody predicted the levee was going to break. Nobody predicted Harvey would be a Cat 4 by the time it made landfall. There is no way to know which storm is going to be the "big one" until the aftermath. Therefore, we shouldn't assume there is no need to evacuate. Related news: a levee south of Houston was just breached. https://twitter.com/BrazoriaCounty/status/902539081841827842 https://twitter.com/BrazoriaCounty/status/902539081841827842
  - eximius 9y ago
    Nobody assumed there was no need to evacuate - the problem is that evacuations make things worse unless you have time. And declaring an evacuation over every tropical storm would just desensitize people.
    - AnimalMuppet 9y ago
      To expand on that point slightly: Houston uses interstates as extra storm water collection areas. That is, the interstates are at lower elevation than the surrounding area, so the water collects there rather than (or at least before) flooding other areas. If you have an evacuation ordered, where the people don't have enough time to get out, you have huge numbers of people in cars sitting on those interstates as the water starts rising. That is not a healthy scenario. Of course, you now get the opposite problem. My brother-in-law's neighborhood now has a mandatory evacuation. But now nobody can get out, because the roads are already covered...
jccooper 9y ago
Coastal areas of Texas are advised (and/or required) to evacuate in advance of a major hurricane hit. Galveston was uninhabitable after Ike and Bolivar Peninsula was literally completely destroyed. Those areas were evacuated, and Houston was begged to stay put so that they could be. And that was the right thing to do. But Harvey was not a direct hurricane hit, and Houston is not coastal. Houston is what it is because it's far enough inland to be reasonably hurricane resistant. And Harvey landed 200 miles away and nobody knew what it would do afterwards, just that it would do it slowly. That's not a situation where you order evacuations. Frankly there's very few situations where Houston can and should be evacuated. The local (and regional!) response has in my opinion been excellent. Loss of life has been very low. It's not over yet, but I've seen single-day flooding events that have been deadlier. Economic damage will be extremely high, but there's really not much to be done about that.

eximius 9y ago

Katrina was not a poor prediction of the storm, it was the levee that broke combined with a depressed geometry that made it so disastrous. And we could not have advised people to evacuate days ahead. Thursday morning, it was just a tropical storm. Suddenly, around lunchtime, it was a category 3 and my business launched business continuity planning procedures. By the end of the day, it was a cat 4. It made landfall the next day. Evacuation would have only put those people outdoors when the storm hit.

ryanackley 9y ago
You have made my point twice. Nobody predicted the levee was going to break. Nobody predicted Harvey would be a Cat 4 by the time it made landfall. There is no way to know which storm is going to be the "big one" until the aftermath. Therefore, we shouldn't assume there is no need to evacuate. Related news: a levee south of Houston was just breached. https://twitter.com/BrazoriaCounty/status/902539081841827842 https://twitter.com/BrazoriaCounty/status/902539081841827842
- eximius 9y ago
  Nobody assumed there was no need to evacuate - the problem is that evacuations make things worse unless you have time. And declaring an evacuation over every tropical storm would just desensitize people.
  - AnimalMuppet 9y ago
    To expand on that point slightly: Houston uses interstates as extra storm water collection areas. That is, the interstates are at lower elevation than the surrounding area, so the water collects there rather than (or at least before) flooding other areas. If you have an evacuation ordered, where the people don't have enough time to get out, you have huge numbers of people in cars sitting on those interstates as the water starts rising. That is not a healthy scenario. Of course, you now get the opposite problem. My brother-in-law's neighborhood now has a mandatory evacuation. But now nobody can get out, because the roads are already covered...

jccooper 9y ago

Coastal areas of Texas are advised (and/or required) to evacuate in advance of a major hurricane hit. Galveston was uninhabitable after Ike and Bolivar Peninsula was literally completely destroyed. Those areas were evacuated, and Houston was begged to stay put so that they could be. And that was the right thing to do. But Harvey was not a direct hurricane hit, and Houston is not coastal. Houston is what it is because it's far enough inland to be reasonably hurricane resistant. And Harvey landed 200 miles away and nobody knew what it would do afterwards, just that it would do it slowly. That's not a situation where you order evacuations. Frankly there's very few situations where Houston can and should be evacuated. The local (and regional!) response has in my opinion been excellent. Loss of life has been very low. It's not over yet, but I've seen single-day flooding events that have been deadlier. Economic damage will be extremely high, but there's really not much to be done about that.