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https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/10... This story

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/10... This story has also been in the NYT, as I recall: > Tomball, Texas, Public Works director David Esquivel told a local paper there this year that the Houston area had “two 500-year storms back to back”: over Memorial Day weekend of 2015 and early April 2016. That means that Hurricane Harvey constitutes the third “500-year” flood in three years. Rare meteorological events do not correlate to large scale disasters, per se. They only reflect the probability of the underlying event happening in any given year. Imagine that your nearest creek "flooding" by 2 inches should only happen every thousand years, for example. > We've got catostrophic storms going back every decade. Donna, Hugo, Andrew, Katrina, Harvey...none of this is new. Aaaaand here's the fundamental confusion with those kinds of summaries: what is the difference between speed and acceleration? We have always had bad weather. Having more bad weather than before, more frequently, is the issue. Climate change did not invent the hurricane. Climate change ensures our hurricanes will be bigger, more frequent, and more likely to combine with other larger, more frequent, weather systems. See Sandy, for example.

chrisco255 9y ago
Take a look: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/one-hundred-years-of-hurricanes/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/one-hundred... The past decade has been pretty lull as far as hurricanes go in the Atlantic and Caribbean. We haven't seen closer to the activity that they saw in the 50s and 60s in my lifetime.
- bonesss 9y ago
  You have failed to read and/or grok my post :( The "number of hurricanes" is irrelevant. Arguably it is misleading: many small hurricanes is much more human friendly than a few monster hurricanes. Climate predictions are solid on more intense hurricanes that last longer, have more rainfall in the short term, and additionally increase with (mild) frequency in the decades to come. At the same time, hurricanes are a specific weather incident with no reflection on the broader climate (monsoons, tropical storms, cyclones, Pacific/atlantic differences, el ninos, etc etc). At the same same time changing the goalposts of the conversation from number of "once in 500 years" to "how many hurricanes" is in-congruent. As I pointed out: rare events do not directly correlate to extreme events. TBH: climate trolls and sceptics on the net really need to up their game. This stuff was played out in the 90s. Any information anyone is honestly missing on this topic is readily available in google, so at this point one has to assume that ignorance is willful.

chrisco255 9y ago

Take a look: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/one-hundred-years-of-hurricanes/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/one-hundred... The past decade has been pretty lull as far as hurricanes go in the Atlantic and Caribbean. We haven't seen closer to the activity that they saw in the 50s and 60s in my lifetime.

bonesss 9y ago
You have failed to read and/or grok my post :( The "number of hurricanes" is irrelevant. Arguably it is misleading: many small hurricanes is much more human friendly than a few monster hurricanes. Climate predictions are solid on more intense hurricanes that last longer, have more rainfall in the short term, and additionally increase with (mild) frequency in the decades to come. At the same time, hurricanes are a specific weather incident with no reflection on the broader climate (monsoons, tropical storms, cyclones, Pacific/atlantic differences, el ninos, etc etc). At the same same time changing the goalposts of the conversation from number of "once in 500 years" to "how many hurricanes" is in-congruent. As I pointed out: rare events do not directly correlate to extreme events. TBH: climate trolls and sceptics on the net really need to up their game. This stuff was played out in the 90s. Any information anyone is honestly missing on this topic is readily available in google, so at this point one has to assume that ignorance is willful.