The whole point of black swans is that you can't predict them. They are equally likely to happen when the market (or a particular security) is going up or when

The whole point of black swans is that you can't predict them. They are equally likely to happen when the market (or a particular security) is going up or when it's going down. I don't see any reason to think you'd be more likely to be out of the market when something unpredictable happens.