4 ms·

I'm going to have to disagree with the conclusion that 'self flying aircraft may be well ahead' of self driving cars. I think automation of cars is a necessary

by ruytlm 9y ago

I'm going to have to disagree with the conclusion that 'self flying aircraft may be well ahead' of self driving cars. I think automation of cars is a necessary precursor to automation of air travel. Many people have issues flying due the feeling of not being in control; I expect we will first need the automation of cars to acclimatise people to the concept of trusting in an AI driver/pilot, before automated flights will be accepted. Cargo flights strike me as the much clearer entry point for the technology.

piotrkaminski 9y ago
> Many people have issues flying due the feeling of not being in control You lack control whether it's a pilot or an AI in the cockpit, so rationally this shouldn't make much difference from this point of view. Of course, people are anything but rational. :) I think it would be amusing to let an AI fly some commercial routes without telling people -- after all, I bet there's nothing in the carriage contract about having humans at the controls. I'm sure the FAA wouldn't approve, though.
JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> Many people have issues flying due the feeling of not being in control If there's one consistent view Americans have expressed about flying, it's that they'll choose the cheapest flight over almost anything else. Bring a cheap self-flying route to market. People will get over their qualms. > Cargo flights strike me as the much clearer entry point for the technology Agree. That said, a helicopter seat from Manhattan to the Hamptons costs about $700. If you cut that to $200 or 300 the demand would be massive, pilot or not.
- treetoppin 9y ago
  If I was a company looking to break into the automated passenger/cargo carrying drone business, I would focus on ferrying people and supplies to offshore drilling sites and remote mining locations. That way you are flying in uncontrolled airspace over water or unpopulated land. You can get more regulatory clearance that way and thus prove out your system, and those industries are much more likely to promise you a recurring service contract.
- ruytlm 9y ago
  > they'll choose the cheapest flight over almost anything else Almost anything else. I agree people will eventually get over their qualms; I just think this is a big qualm to get over. Though what you've said about cheap helicopter flights has me thinking - perhaps the way in will be via the scaling up of quadcopters and drones. Once smaller drones are a familiar thing, larger passenger drones would be less of a stretch. I'd argue it's easier psychologically to hop in a drone based on an ancestry that's never had an on-board pilot, than to hop in a plane that's had the pilot removed and replaced.
- 1_2__4 9y ago
  I don't think that's true, about low priced tickets. What you actually mean is that once companies collude to create a situation where it's virtually impossible to compare one flight to another, or one airline to another, by any criteria other than cost then cost is what drives customer decisions. I'm sick to death of this meme that Americans are only interested in low prices. The fact is airlines were one of the first of many industries to use fees, line by line cost breakdown, obscure deals and a baffling purchase process to strand customers on an island of price comparison and nothing else. See also: cell phones plans. If you knew what you were getting and could hold airlines accountable when they didn't deliver on what was purchased I promise you price would no longer be the only factor. This is not a truism about Americans you've found, it's a truism about distorted and manipulated markets lacking sufficient regulation.
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    > airlines were one of the first of many industries to use fees, line by line cost breakdown, obscure deals and a baffling purchase process to strand customers on an island of price comparison and nothing else I'm one of those Americans who doesn't buy the cheapest ticket. I buy comfortable seats at convenient times with airlines I'm loyal to. Guess what I see none of? Any of those things! My bags are free, my drinks are free, I get to go to the front of the check-in line and, many times, security line. On occasions where I've been charged a change fee, a quick phone call gets it reversed. I board a 6:30AM flight tomorrow and am honestly looking forward to a few hours of cool views, relaxing reading and maybe a touch of alcohol. Airlines tried competing on pitch and leg room. Their behinds got handed to them by travellers switching to budget airlines. If you want better service, there are business class tickets available at prices cheaper than pre-deregulation fares. Note that this effect isn't constrained to Americans. European non-business passengers' demand for air travel is also extremely elastic with respect to price [1]. [1] http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/48303/140307.pdf?sequence=1 http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/48303/140307.pd...
    - andrewjw 9y ago
      What domestic airlines do you fly most? Do you regularly fly business?
- mannykannot 9y ago
  Would removing the pilot allow that magnitude of reduction?
ekianjo 9y ago
> before automated flights will be accepted. Most of the flight is spent on Autopilot these days so you would not know if there's someone at the commands or not anyway.
aptwebapps 9y ago
Technically, it seems like aircraft are closer than cars. Probably in the vehicles themselves and definitely with respect to external control systems. In terms of public acceptance, I wouldn't be surprised if you have the psychology of it right, especially when you consider that for commercial flights you have to get buy-in from nearly all of your potential passengers or you will lose them to competitors. Maybe there will be a period of automated and non-automated flights with the latter more expensive. For other uses like cargo and business jets, adoption could be much faster.

by ruytlm 9y ago

piotrkaminski 9y ago

> Many people have issues flying due the feeling of not being in control You lack control whether it's a pilot or an AI in the cockpit, so rationally this shouldn't make much difference from this point of view. Of course, people are anything but rational. :) I think it would be amusing to let an AI fly some commercial routes without telling people -- after all, I bet there's nothing in the carriage contract about having humans at the controls. I'm sure the FAA wouldn't approve, though.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> Many people have issues flying due the feeling of not being in control If there's one consistent view Americans have expressed about flying, it's that they'll choose the cheapest flight over almost anything else. Bring a cheap self-flying route to market. People will get over their qualms. > Cargo flights strike me as the much clearer entry point for the technology Agree. That said, a helicopter seat from Manhattan to the Hamptons costs about $700. If you cut that to $200 or 300 the demand would be massive, pilot or not.

treetoppin 9y ago
If I was a company looking to break into the automated passenger/cargo carrying drone business, I would focus on ferrying people and supplies to offshore drilling sites and remote mining locations. That way you are flying in uncontrolled airspace over water or unpopulated land. You can get more regulatory clearance that way and thus prove out your system, and those industries are much more likely to promise you a recurring service contract.
ruytlm 9y ago
> they'll choose the cheapest flight over almost anything else Almost anything else. I agree people will eventually get over their qualms; I just think this is a big qualm to get over. Though what you've said about cheap helicopter flights has me thinking - perhaps the way in will be via the scaling up of quadcopters and drones. Once smaller drones are a familiar thing, larger passenger drones would be less of a stretch. I'd argue it's easier psychologically to hop in a drone based on an ancestry that's never had an on-board pilot, than to hop in a plane that's had the pilot removed and replaced.
1_2__4 9y ago
I don't think that's true, about low priced tickets. What you actually mean is that once companies collude to create a situation where it's virtually impossible to compare one flight to another, or one airline to another, by any criteria other than cost then cost is what drives customer decisions. I'm sick to death of this meme that Americans are only interested in low prices. The fact is airlines were one of the first of many industries to use fees, line by line cost breakdown, obscure deals and a baffling purchase process to strand customers on an island of price comparison and nothing else. See also: cell phones plans. If you knew what you were getting and could hold airlines accountable when they didn't deliver on what was purchased I promise you price would no longer be the only factor. This is not a truism about Americans you've found, it's a truism about distorted and manipulated markets lacking sufficient regulation.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  > airlines were one of the first of many industries to use fees, line by line cost breakdown, obscure deals and a baffling purchase process to strand customers on an island of price comparison and nothing else I'm one of those Americans who doesn't buy the cheapest ticket. I buy comfortable seats at convenient times with airlines I'm loyal to. Guess what I see none of? Any of those things! My bags are free, my drinks are free, I get to go to the front of the check-in line and, many times, security line. On occasions where I've been charged a change fee, a quick phone call gets it reversed. I board a 6:30AM flight tomorrow and am honestly looking forward to a few hours of cool views, relaxing reading and maybe a touch of alcohol. Airlines tried competing on pitch and leg room. Their behinds got handed to them by travellers switching to budget airlines. If you want better service, there are business class tickets available at prices cheaper than pre-deregulation fares. Note that this effect isn't constrained to Americans. European non-business passengers' demand for air travel is also extremely elastic with respect to price [1]. [1] http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/48303/140307.pdf?sequence=1 http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/48303/140307.pd...
  - andrewjw 9y ago
    What domestic airlines do you fly most? Do you regularly fly business?
mannykannot 9y ago
Would removing the pilot allow that magnitude of reduction?

ekianjo 9y ago

> before automated flights will be accepted. Most of the flight is spent on Autopilot these days so you would not know if there's someone at the commands or not anyway.

aptwebapps 9y ago

Technically, it seems like aircraft are closer than cars. Probably in the vehicles themselves and definitely with respect to external control systems. In terms of public acceptance, I wouldn't be surprised if you have the psychology of it right, especially when you consider that for commercial flights you have to get buy-in from nearly all of your potential passengers or you will lose them to competitors. Maybe there will be a period of automated and non-automated flights with the latter more expensive. For other uses like cargo and business jets, adoption could be much faster.