6 ms·

This leads to the next thing. Violating Japan's airspace with a missile may be a provocation for war. If that's the case, you're going to hear from our (US) pre

by monksy 9y ago

This leads to the next thing. Violating Japan's airspace with a missile may be a provocation for war. If that's the case, you're going to hear from our (US) president that we're officially going to war or conflict with North Korea. Unfortunately, in this case, I believe that Bannon is right. (We're screwed in that situation)

imron 9y ago
Whatever else you think of Bannon, he was, and is staunchly anti-war. I'm not sure you can say that about any of Trumos current advisers.
ajross 9y ago
We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has already threatened to nuke them if they even so much as continue issuing threats. Not only did they up the threat ante within hours of that remark (c.f. "attack the waters around Guam"), they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Where do we go from here?
- wisdomdata 9y ago
  NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?
  - maruhan2 9y ago
    This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?
    - TazeTSchnitzel 9y ago
      The threats are to extract concessions. The nukes are to make them too dangerous to invade.
      - rapind 9y ago
        Some say too dangerous not to invade. It's a complicated situation and there's no easy choice IMO.
    - jonnathanson 9y ago
      Because Kim's reign is predicated on maintaining credibility with his generals. He does that by rattling his saber and extracting economic concessions from the global community in general (and the US in particular). Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably testing the edges of his geopolitical box, figuring that it's a bit roomier than he'd previously calculated.
      - ams6110 9y ago
        Well he already backed off on his Guam threats. How much credibilty does that gain him with his generals, and how did Trump misplay that exactly?
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
- jonnathanson 9y ago
  Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage.
  - astrodust 9y ago
    Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Korea is really smacking the bear around with a stick here seeing how far they can go before they get bit.
    - helthanatos 9y ago
      North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.
      - Aharito 9y ago
        Even if we just remove the missile sites, and any sort of nuclear ordinance on the first attack, they don't really have nearly as much as they claim capable of hitting Seoul[1], and even then it can only hit the northern 3rd of the city, which is less populated. The city itself has put a lot of work into infrastructure in preparation, enough bunkers and shelters to house 20 million. Yes, it will get hit, people will die, but as long as no nuke comes down, I'd consider than a win, for eliminating such a dangerous tyrant. Of course, coming to terms with China will be an entirely different matter. 1: https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/ https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-th...
- fao_ 9y ago
  > they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.
  - cattlefarmer 9y ago
    Flying over open water is one thing. The missiles flew straight over populated land.
    - fao_ 9y ago
      Again, there is literally no way for NK to fly the missles to the water WITHOUT going over populated land. Study a map for god's sake.
Koshkin 9y ago
According to Washington Post, the rocket has not entered Japan's airspace, it went into the outer space before coming back to Earth to the east of Hokkaido. (Yes, it did cross the projection of Japan onto the heavens.)

by monksy 9y ago

imron 9y ago

Whatever else you think of Bannon, he was, and is staunchly anti-war. I'm not sure you can say that about any of Trumos current advisers.

ajross 9y ago

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has already threatened to nuke them if they even so much as continue issuing threats. Not only did they up the threat ante within hours of that remark (c.f. "attack the waters around Guam"), they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Where do we go from here?

wisdomdata 9y ago
NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?
- maruhan2 9y ago
  This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?
  - TazeTSchnitzel 9y ago
    The threats are to extract concessions. The nukes are to make them too dangerous to invade.
    - rapind 9y ago
      Some say too dangerous not to invade. It's a complicated situation and there's no easy choice IMO.
  - jonnathanson 9y ago
    Because Kim's reign is predicated on maintaining credibility with his generals. He does that by rattling his saber and extracting economic concessions from the global community in general (and the US in particular). Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably testing the edges of his geopolitical box, figuring that it's a bit roomier than he'd previously calculated.
    - ams6110 9y ago
      Well he already backed off on his Guam threats. How much credibilty does that gain him with his generals, and how did Trump misplay that exactly?
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
jonnathanson 9y ago
Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage.
- astrodust 9y ago
  Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Korea is really smacking the bear around with a stick here seeing how far they can go before they get bit.
  - helthanatos 9y ago
    North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.
    - Aharito 9y ago
      Even if we just remove the missile sites, and any sort of nuclear ordinance on the first attack, they don't really have nearly as much as they claim capable of hitting Seoul[1], and even then it can only hit the northern 3rd of the city, which is less populated. The city itself has put a lot of work into infrastructure in preparation, enough bunkers and shelters to house 20 million. Yes, it will get hit, people will die, but as long as no nuke comes down, I'd consider than a win, for eliminating such a dangerous tyrant. Of course, coming to terms with China will be an entirely different matter. 1: https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/ https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-th...
fao_ 9y ago
> they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.
- cattlefarmer 9y ago
  Flying over open water is one thing. The missiles flew straight over populated land.
  - fao_ 9y ago
    Again, there is literally no way for NK to fly the missles to the water WITHOUT going over populated land. Study a map for god's sake.

Koshkin 9y ago

According to Washington Post, the rocket has not entered Japan's airspace, it went into the outer space before coming back to Earth to the east of Hokkaido. (Yes, it did cross the projection of Japan onto the heavens.)