5 ms·

> I worry that the us is going to have some kind of Pearl Harbor type event that our military is not going to be capable of defending against. That's going to

> I worry that the us is going to have some kind of Pearl Harbor type event that our military is not going to be capable of defending against. That's going to be when $4 billion aircraft carriers are sunk by $250,000 sea-skimmer anti-ship missiles launched by the dozens.

spitfire 9y ago
That's already happened. Virtually. See the millennium challenge. So what it happens there'll be very clear documentation that they were aware of the vulnerabilities, but ignored them.
tcbawo 9y ago
Hopefully (perhaps?), there is a classified answer to that
- Jach 9y ago
  The unclassified answer: nukes.
Clubber 9y ago
Yes, all our surface ships are mostly for show and to attack weaker nations, patrol shipping lanes, etc. In a real war with a major power, most of them would be sunk in a few weeks. Our real fleet is under water. We're really The only country left that really has them (carriers). We're #1 with carriers (11). Italy is #2 with (2) active carriers. There are 6 other countries with a single carrier. A big waste of money considering they are so vulnerable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_c... http://www.businessinsider.com/r-special-report-aircraft-carriers-championed-by-trump-are-vulnerable-to-attack-2017-3 http://www.businessinsider.com/r-special-report-aircraft-car...
- arethuza 9y ago
  The Russians have already mocked the UK's new carriers as "large convenient targets". Sinking of one of these carriers by the Russians also features in a (not particularly good) novel by a retired UK general about a war with Russia.
- lambdadmitry 9y ago
  The vulnerability of supercarriers is a myth. See [1]. TL;DR: ocean is so big that it's very hard to locate and keep track of a carrier group, especially when it takes active measures to avoid location. [1]: http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/aircraft-carrier-invulnerability.pdf http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/aircraf...
  - throwawayjava 9y ago
    I have to agree with this line from the report you linked: "However, it is a reasonable assumption that adversaries will eventually devise targeting techniques, especially in the littoral areas adjacent to their homelands" If China wanted to, they could develop the capability to track aircraft carriers -- especially within striking distance of the mainland. But there's a much larger implicit assumption threaded throughout the report -- the assumption that our aircraft carriers will be cruising at full speed and on high alert in prepared and competent battle groups at time of attack. The assumptions of a maximally defensive posture and extreme competence are present in virtually every argument advanced by the report. The most significant US naval defeat -- in which damn near the entire Pacific fleet was wiped out -- suggests that a full threat assessment should relax most or all of those assumptions. Particularly given the article under discussion.
lambdadmitry 9y ago
It's not happening because to launch missiles and guide them to the target you need to know where target is. Given the speed of a carrier group, the vastness of the ocean and the fact that everything above horizon will get shot it's no easy task at all.

spitfire 9y ago

That's already happened. Virtually. See the millennium challenge. So what it happens there'll be very clear documentation that they were aware of the vulnerabilities, but ignored them.

tcbawo 9y ago

Hopefully (perhaps?), there is a classified answer to that

Jach 9y ago
The unclassified answer: nukes.

Clubber 9y ago

Yes, all our surface ships are mostly for show and to attack weaker nations, patrol shipping lanes, etc. In a real war with a major power, most of them would be sunk in a few weeks. Our real fleet is under water. We're really The only country left that really has them (carriers). We're #1 with carriers (11). Italy is #2 with (2) active carriers. There are 6 other countries with a single carrier. A big waste of money considering they are so vulnerable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_c... http://www.businessinsider.com/r-special-report-aircraft-carriers-championed-by-trump-are-vulnerable-to-attack-2017-3 http://www.businessinsider.com/r-special-report-aircraft-car...

arethuza 9y ago
The Russians have already mocked the UK's new carriers as "large convenient targets". Sinking of one of these carriers by the Russians also features in a (not particularly good) novel by a retired UK general about a war with Russia.
lambdadmitry 9y ago
The vulnerability of supercarriers is a myth. See [1]. TL;DR: ocean is so big that it's very hard to locate and keep track of a carrier group, especially when it takes active measures to avoid location. [1]: http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/aircraft-carrier-invulnerability.pdf http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/aircraf...
- throwawayjava 9y ago
  I have to agree with this line from the report you linked: "However, it is a reasonable assumption that adversaries will eventually devise targeting techniques, especially in the littoral areas adjacent to their homelands" If China wanted to, they could develop the capability to track aircraft carriers -- especially within striking distance of the mainland. But there's a much larger implicit assumption threaded throughout the report -- the assumption that our aircraft carriers will be cruising at full speed and on high alert in prepared and competent battle groups at time of attack. The assumptions of a maximally defensive posture and extreme competence are present in virtually every argument advanced by the report. The most significant US naval defeat -- in which damn near the entire Pacific fleet was wiped out -- suggests that a full threat assessment should relax most or all of those assumptions. Particularly given the article under discussion.

lambdadmitry 9y ago

It's not happening because to launch missiles and guide them to the target you need to know where target is. Given the speed of a carrier group, the vastness of the ocean and the fact that everything above horizon will get shot it's no easy task at all.