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The U.S. government is in disarray (to understate it) and is in a moment of weakness. I am sure Pyongyang knows this and is testing the waters to see what it ca

by tbabb 9y ago

The U.S. government is in disarray (to understate it) and is in a moment of weakness. I am sure Pyongyang knows this and is testing the waters to see what it can get away with. Will a meaningful, competent retaliation come? Maybe they went this far because all the previous probings confirmed the weakness. How much further will they go? Who else will come out of the woodwork and start strutting around now that nobody has the will or know-how to stop them?

maxerickson 9y ago
Will a meaningful, competent retaliation come? So please explain what that can possibly be. Economic sanctions against China?
- tbabb 9y ago
  Not a diplomat, so I have no idea. But I'd guess the responses are much more often diplomatic or covert than military.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    So how can you evaluate the competency of any response? (I pretty much see the situation as intractable, short of China getting motivated to eliminate their convenient strategic buffer...)
spuz 9y ago
This hypothesis doesn't really make sense. Why would NK want to see what it can get away with? All they need to do is show to their enemies that they have the capability to cause incredible loss of life and they will achieve their goal of staying in power. They don't actually need to cause actual loss of life to do so. Actually performing a missile strike for example in Japan is not in their own interest because once they step over a certain line it's game over.
- cmurf 9y ago
  [Kim Jong Un] has said things that are horrific. And with me he’s not getting away with it. He got away with it for a long time, between him and his family. He’s not getting away with it. This is a whole new ballgame. He’s not going to be saying those things, and he’s certainly not going to be doing those things. - Trump, barely two weeks ago. The hypothesis makes a lot of sense, because merely proving Trump's insincerity, and that nothing has actually changed policy wise, has intrinsic value. DPRK did such a missile test in 2009, to much deserved outcry, but there was no escalating response. But this is supposed to be a whole new ballgame. So is it a new ballgame? Or was that insincere?

by tbabb 9y ago

maxerickson 9y ago

Will a meaningful, competent retaliation come? So please explain what that can possibly be. Economic sanctions against China?

tbabb 9y ago
Not a diplomat, so I have no idea. But I'd guess the responses are much more often diplomatic or covert than military.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  So how can you evaluate the competency of any response? (I pretty much see the situation as intractable, short of China getting motivated to eliminate their convenient strategic buffer...)

spuz 9y ago

This hypothesis doesn't really make sense. Why would NK want to see what it can get away with? All they need to do is show to their enemies that they have the capability to cause incredible loss of life and they will achieve their goal of staying in power. They don't actually need to cause actual loss of life to do so. Actually performing a missile strike for example in Japan is not in their own interest because once they step over a certain line it's game over.

cmurf 9y ago
[Kim Jong Un] has said things that are horrific. And with me he’s not getting away with it. He got away with it for a long time, between him and his family. He’s not getting away with it. This is a whole new ballgame. He’s not going to be saying those things, and he’s certainly not going to be doing those things. - Trump, barely two weeks ago. The hypothesis makes a lot of sense, because merely proving Trump's insincerity, and that nothing has actually changed policy wise, has intrinsic value. DPRK did such a missile test in 2009, to much deserved outcry, but there was no escalating response. But this is supposed to be a whole new ballgame. So is it a new ballgame? Or was that insincere?