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I think that audio recognition is an order of magnitude less complicated than fully autonomous driving. The world is fully contextless outside the road to an no

by kpil 9y ago

I think that audio recognition is an order of magnitude less complicated than fully autonomous driving. The world is fully contextless outside the road to an not-even-at-insect-level brain driving two tons of metal, and anything can happen. Voice recognition is getting just barely tolerable. If you have tried to do something important using voice recognition you'd probably go bat shit crazy after a while. If it had the potential to kill people no sane human would allow it.

sol_remmy 9y ago
Voice recognition also has a lot less market demand than self driving cars. Technology can be invented that is decades ahead of other fields if enough money is invested. That is why I think self-driving cars and voice recognition are not comparable problems.
- LrnByTeach 9y ago
  Totally agree .. > Voice recognition also has a lot less market demand than self driving cars. Just to expand on your point, today's 'self driving car' technology we may equal to where 'voice recognition technology' was 20 years ago. But 20 years ago, there is no incentive for industry to invest say $100 Billion in 'voice recognition technology', the benefits did not warrant such a huge investment. Where as'self driving car' technology there is potential to reap benefits that is why industry today investing $100 Billion ( all combined investments from all players ) > Technology can be invented that is decades ahead of other fields if enough money is invested. > That is why I think self-driving cars and voice recognition are not comparable problems. The huge economic value the can be created with perfected 'self driving car' is in the order of hundreds of Billions of dollars per year world wide combined . Here is an example scenario In 2025 'self driving Electric Autonomous fleet' vehicles by Uber, Googles of the world offer 'miles plan' ( like our 2005 mobile monthly plan N minutes/month ) that is like 1000 miles per month you can hail any time for a monthly price of $300/month . This is huge economic value for at least 50% of USA drivers and people will embrace it. Typical USA drivers total cost of ownership of CAR today is in the range of $400 to $600 per month ( CAR price + Repairs costs + car Insurance + gasoline cost) . This is with out counting 1.5 hours/day you have pay attention to drive, the time that can be used for other thing with autonomous fleet
kajecounterhack 9y ago
> The world is fully contextless outside the road to an not-even-at-insect-level brain driving two tons of metal, and anything can happen. See that's where you're wrong. An autonomous vehicle doesn't have to have a human brain. It has to have very accurate sensors and classifiers tuned with generous safety params. Like any vehicle it also needs redundancies for safety and sane default behavior (mostly "slam on the breaks"). Also, not "anything can happen." There are rules that govern the road that make this problem tractable. There are rules that govern physics that mean if you have adequate sensors + compute you can avoid hitting any objects at all, whether it's a person or otherwise. "Object x is 30 ft away with trajectory y, we're going 15mph, slam on the brakes." The difficulties mostly lie in how we can "not slam on the brakes all the time and never make progress." e.g if you enter a construction zone you better know what to do and not just sit still, otherwise you'll never get anywhere.
fastball 9y ago
I think Wonderful.
- dang 9y ago
  Would you please not do this here? We're trying for at least a slightly higher quality level on HN. One thing that helps is not to assume stupidity in the other; we even added a new guideline recently to say that. More diplomatically though. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

by kpil 9y ago

sol_remmy 9y ago

Voice recognition also has a lot less market demand than self driving cars. Technology can be invented that is decades ahead of other fields if enough money is invested. That is why I think self-driving cars and voice recognition are not comparable problems.

LrnByTeach 9y ago
Totally agree .. > Voice recognition also has a lot less market demand than self driving cars. Just to expand on your point, today's 'self driving car' technology we may equal to where 'voice recognition technology' was 20 years ago. But 20 years ago, there is no incentive for industry to invest say $100 Billion in 'voice recognition technology', the benefits did not warrant such a huge investment. Where as'self driving car' technology there is potential to reap benefits that is why industry today investing $100 Billion ( all combined investments from all players ) > Technology can be invented that is decades ahead of other fields if enough money is invested. > That is why I think self-driving cars and voice recognition are not comparable problems. The huge economic value the can be created with perfected 'self driving car' is in the order of hundreds of Billions of dollars per year world wide combined . Here is an example scenario In 2025 'self driving Electric Autonomous fleet' vehicles by Uber, Googles of the world offer 'miles plan' ( like our 2005 mobile monthly plan N minutes/month ) that is like 1000 miles per month you can hail any time for a monthly price of $300/month . This is huge economic value for at least 50% of USA drivers and people will embrace it. Typical USA drivers total cost of ownership of CAR today is in the range of $400 to $600 per month ( CAR price + Repairs costs + car Insurance + gasoline cost) . This is with out counting 1.5 hours/day you have pay attention to drive, the time that can be used for other thing with autonomous fleet

kajecounterhack 9y ago

> The world is fully contextless outside the road to an not-even-at-insect-level brain driving two tons of metal, and anything can happen. See that's where you're wrong. An autonomous vehicle doesn't have to have a human brain. It has to have very accurate sensors and classifiers tuned with generous safety params. Like any vehicle it also needs redundancies for safety and sane default behavior (mostly "slam on the breaks"). Also, not "anything can happen." There are rules that govern the road that make this problem tractable. There are rules that govern physics that mean if you have adequate sensors + compute you can avoid hitting any objects at all, whether it's a person or otherwise. "Object x is 30 ft away with trajectory y, we're going 15mph, slam on the brakes." The difficulties mostly lie in how we can "not slam on the brakes all the time and never make progress." e.g if you enter a construction zone you better know what to do and not just sit still, otherwise you'll never get anywhere.

fastball 9y ago

I think Wonderful.

dang 9y ago
Would you please not do this here? We're trying for at least a slightly higher quality level on HN. One thing that helps is not to assume stupidity in the other; we even added a new guideline recently to say that. More diplomatically though. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html