3 ms·
> Get ready, because the next few decades are gonna look like this. Probably not.[1] And thinking as a lay person, storm intensity is governed by differences
by emmelaich 9y ago
> Get ready, because the next few decades are gonna look like this.
Probably not.[1]
And thinking as a lay person, storm intensity is governed by differences in temperature, not absolute rises is it not? In fact one might expect lower intensity, since the poles will warm by more than the equator.
[1]
> there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is not significantly distinguishable from zero
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-storm-records/ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-...
- gdubs 9y agoWhile the storm hit with the highest category in a decade, it's not the intensity that's the problem here - it's that the storm is just parked and not moving anywhere, continuing to dump rain.
- emmelaich 9y agoOK, from that same link, regarding landfalling hurricanes. "... U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight *negative* trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s ..." My emphasis on negative.
- locopati 9y agoHigher global temperatures mean higher ocean temperatures meaning there's more warm water for hurricanes to draw energy from. This is what happened with Harvey - it crossed a swath of warm Gulf water and accelerated into a cat4 instead of a tropical storm.