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This article seems to be completely misrepresenting Texas's own projections, which they cite in the article. Texas is expecting to see an increasing influx of

This article seems to be completely misrepresenting Texas's own projections, which they cite in the article. Texas is expecting to see an increasing influx of Hispanic residents (10+ million more Hispanic residents by 2050) [0], while all non-hispanic groups see much more modest increases in population. The US census published that, in 2015, 65,000 people moved from California to Texas while 41,000 people moved from Texas to California [1]. While this is a meaningful difference, especially given that California has about 10 million more people, it isn't the mass-exodus of Republicans that I've been seeing as the narrative from NPR and Vice lately (I assume other news outlets are also running stories about this?). If this trend continues, we should expect roughly 720,000 people (30*24,000), plus some fudge-factor to adjust for population increases across the board. Given Texas's own estimates, I'm going to assume these are mostly hispanic migrants, which have also tended to be more democratic leaning [2]. The conclusion seems to be that Texas may start moving more liberal in the next 30 years driven primarily by hispanic migrant voters, not that conservatives will find a continued safe-haven there. [0] http://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/Publications/2014/2014-11_ProjectionBrief.pdf http://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/Publications/2014/20... [1] https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph... [2] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other...

forapurpose 9y ago
The conservative values may predominate for longer than the conservative majority, due to voter suppression and gerrymandering by the state. As one example, I read an article describing a program to reduce voter registration in Texas (this was maybe 2 years ago, so my memory will be imperfect). Someone registering voters has to be from the same county or district as the voter, and has to follow a sizeable book of regulations. Violations are felonies. This makes voter registration drives very difficult. These tactics and others like them are not novel; they existed before the Voting Rights Act of 1965. After the Supreme Court in 2013 effectively ended the supervision of states by the federal government, the tactics returned in many of the formerly segregated states.
dogma1138 9y ago
You assume that Hispanics are "liberal", that isn't exactly correct. They are quite conservative on many issues like religion, general economic policy, abortion, and anything with "social" in the name. They are "liberal" or to be more exact vote democrats mostly because of a single issue - immigration. If the Republican party will do a 180 (or even come with a reasonable plan, or heck just an new image since both under Clinton and Obama deportations were higher than at previous and following republican presidents) on that single issue they can win the majority of the Hispanic vote in many states.
- alextheparrot 9y ago
  Pew's search on hispanic issues seems to indicate they favor liberal economic issues (Health care, social security, management of the federal government) [0]. Painting hispanics as a group that only cares about immigration is far too broad a brush. These voters are the democratic party's to lose - if they are not lost we may see Texas start to move more liberal instead of being the conservative stronghold which the article tries to imply it is. [0] www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/6-hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election

forapurpose 9y ago

The conservative values may predominate for longer than the conservative majority, due to voter suppression and gerrymandering by the state. As one example, I read an article describing a program to reduce voter registration in Texas (this was maybe 2 years ago, so my memory will be imperfect). Someone registering voters has to be from the same county or district as the voter, and has to follow a sizeable book of regulations. Violations are felonies. This makes voter registration drives very difficult. These tactics and others like them are not novel; they existed before the Voting Rights Act of 1965. After the Supreme Court in 2013 effectively ended the supervision of states by the federal government, the tactics returned in many of the formerly segregated states.

dogma1138 9y ago

You assume that Hispanics are "liberal", that isn't exactly correct. They are quite conservative on many issues like religion, general economic policy, abortion, and anything with "social" in the name. They are "liberal" or to be more exact vote democrats mostly because of a single issue - immigration. If the Republican party will do a 180 (or even come with a reasonable plan, or heck just an new image since both under Clinton and Obama deportations were higher than at previous and following republican presidents) on that single issue they can win the majority of the Hispanic vote in many states.

alextheparrot 9y ago
Pew's search on hispanic issues seems to indicate they favor liberal economic issues (Health care, social security, management of the federal government) [0]. Painting hispanics as a group that only cares about immigration is far too broad a brush. These voters are the democratic party's to lose - if they are not lost we may see Texas start to move more liberal instead of being the conservative stronghold which the article tries to imply it is. [0] www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/6-hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election