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They have been profitable, although I don't use a fully automated strategy yet, the bots show me where to bet based on statistical analysis (Monte Carlo analysi
by seanos 16y ago
They have been profitable, although I don't use a fully automated strategy yet, the bots show me where to bet based on statistical analysis (Monte Carlo analysis) based on past games, the current situation in each game and the available odds - I place the bets myself combining information from the bots and my own subjective analysis. The fact that profits are tax free helps! I'm not sure how feasable full automation is, maybe in certain sports like cricket that can be analysed well through stats alone, but for sports like soccer it is difficult to build an accurate statistical model that can outperform a market that can make subjective judgements based on the precise circumstances of a game. Reading the article, it seems like this hedge fund is using experienced traders to provide judgement backed by statistical modelling too.
- greyman 16y agoI've been chatting with a few people and they confirmed to me that outperform football market long-term (by statistical model or any other way) is indeed very difficult, and most professionals currently do tennis and horses. The reason is that predict a goal in football is difficult, while the tennis match can be partially predicted by watching the game.