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Beware those Black Swans
- po 16y agoThis is a postscript to the new paperback edition of his book. Don't miss the set of principals he lays out at the end of the article. These are pure gold. * What is fragile should break early while it's still small * No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains * People who drove a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus * Don't let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant - or your financial risks * Compensate complexity with simplicity * Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning label * Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence * Citizens should not depend on financial assets as a repository of value and rely on fallible "expert" advice for their retirement * Make an omelette with the broken eggs The ponzi scheme one rings particularly true to me. The question now is, how do you replace a system that is already set up to fight these principals? I could maybe imagine setting up a new system that embodies principals such as these... but how do you change (refactor?) a government/legislation/economy to get there?