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A common theme with the self-driving car discussion is the potential to reshape cities. While I'm sure this will happen, I'd love to see thoughts/ideas on the i

A common theme with the self-driving car discussion is the potential to reshape cities. While I'm sure this will happen, I'd love to see thoughts/ideas on the impact in suburban & more remote areas. For example, will people be willing to commute longer distances? Will smaller cities outside larger metropolitan areas become more popular?

noir_lord 9y ago
I think a lot will depend on the average speed attainable in a system of wholly autonomous vehicles, if you can commute an hour each way at 90mph that's a catchment area 2.6 times larger (than at 55mph). That would have a huge effect. 90 mile circle around London covers the entire south east of the UK pretty much. 90 miles from Leeds covers Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham,bradford and Hull which is much of all the major cities outside of London in the midlands/north.
- sputknick 9y ago
  Or if not speed, the comfort of the ride, which would allow for more time. I would spend more time in a self driving car if I could shower, dress, cook, nap, and do work.
  - tyingq 9y ago
    Wait...a car you can shower and cook in?
    - OoooooooO 9y ago
      Sure, why not in the future? I would probably prefer my Dönercopter delivery.
    - sosuke 9y ago
      An RV?
    - oh_sigh 9y ago
      Why not self driving RV? a veritable castle on wheels.
      - tyingq 9y ago
        Not sure about showers and cooking while they are driving.
tyingq 9y ago
I suspect by the time there are enough self driving cars that it lowers drive time, other factors will kick in as well. Automation to that degree would likely have wiped out many other non-driving jobs in the city, or made them such that doing the job remotely was possible.
pmiller2 9y ago
I already commute an hour each way by public transportation. The only benefit a self-driving car could theoretically offer me is that I don't have to deal with other passengers.
- jrs235 9y ago
  Or extra stops. Or aligning your schedule to the shared vehicles schedule.
- hn_throwaway_99 9y ago
  Which would be huge, at least for me. I'd love to be able to pull out my laptop and get rid of my "busywork" (e.g. emails, review daily reports, etc.), which would be a hell of a lot easier in a self driving car than, say, the BART.
  - EternalData 9y ago
    Interesting subpoint here: people who are able to work remotely are going to add about an hour or perhaps a bit less to their productivity but those who cannot (let's say a hypothetical janitor/sales clerk) will not, further adding a layer of inequality to those who work with their minds versus those who work with their hands. This is all things equal, and assuming that the advent of self-driving cars doesn't also bring a whole new economy/job market.
    - cm2187 9y ago
      I wouldn't overdo the remote working. My experience is that it is terribly inefficient in my business. It's fine at small dose to help people cope with other obligation but I don't see that being the future of office work.
      - majewsky 9y ago
        It depends on the person. Some people are amazingly productive while working from home (I have two such colleagues), while others (e.g. me) are clearly less productive and more easily distracted at home.
daurnimator 9y ago
You usually pay a premium (in real estate/rent) to live near fast/accessible public transport. As self-driving cars are introduced, places that previously had terrible public transport access, yet are still within a 45 min drive of CBDs via driving will have mini-booms.
brightball 9y ago
I am most interested in what self driving RVs will do.
- majewsky 9y ago
  That would be an interesting alternative for business flights, potentially. Instead of flying from NY to DC and staying in a hotel there for the meeting next day, just hop into the autonomous RV, lay in a course and go to bed.
djyaz1200 9y ago
All the dependencies that make urban density relevant are being eroded by technology. Self driving cars will be one part of a trend that makes remote living a lot more pleasant and popular. Amazon will deliver most of what you need to live (and soon eat). SpaceX is working on low orbit and therefore low latency high speed global internet so you can work and/or get entertainment anywhere. Tesla can sell you solar panels and a battery to power your home. You can do a septic system instead of a sewer hookup. If you insist on gas you could get propane delivered inexpensively. If you want to mingle/meet people you can do that online. Then with a level 5 self driving car you can send your kids to far away schools everyday easily, or work at your "desk" during a long commute in the car. Or say if you want to drive 90 minutes into town for a basketball game that's no big deal if a computer does the thinking while you watch movies in the back. I live in Oregon where I expect a profound impact. There are so many amazing places here that are incredibly beautiful/cheap and within 90 minutes of a major metro area/airport. I think the real driver of this change will be cost, younger people (myself included) are getting priced out of owning a nice home in a major metro area. I'm seriously considering moving to Sweet Home Oregon and building a mansion on acres for half the cost of a modest townhouse in portland. High speed Internet is the missing piece for me.
- ghaff 9y ago
  It's at least plausible that the current infatuation with mostly a handful of dense urban cores by mostly a certain young educated demographic will end up being a short-term blip. It's pretty recent--which is one of the big reasons for all the issues with housing and transit infrastructure in those areas. It wouldn't surprise me at all if people look back in 20 or 30 years and see migration to the densest urban areas in the US as this temporary aberration.
- majewsky 9y ago
  > If you want to mingle/meet people you can do that online. There's a huge difference between meeting online and meeting offline. Online might become a venerable substitute for offline if VR/AR technology advances to the point where we can have the full experience of the other people sitting around the same table, i.e. their whole body language etc.
Fricken 9y ago
There was a period where I was commuting in a private coach bus 1.5 hours each way. It was a really nice bus, clean, air conditioned, wifi, reclining seats. Nonetheless, spending 3 hours a day in transit still sucked.
- ghaff 9y ago
  Yeah. A while back I had a sometimes commute that was about 1.5-2 hours, mostly by train plus a short drive and a short walk. It was somewhat manageable but I would have hated to have done it every day. Yeah, you can read etc. but it's still a big chunk out of your day.

noir_lord 9y ago

I think a lot will depend on the average speed attainable in a system of wholly autonomous vehicles, if you can commute an hour each way at 90mph that's a catchment area 2.6 times larger (than at 55mph). That would have a huge effect. 90 mile circle around London covers the entire south east of the UK pretty much. 90 miles from Leeds covers Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham,bradford and Hull which is much of all the major cities outside of London in the midlands/north.

sputknick 9y ago
Or if not speed, the comfort of the ride, which would allow for more time. I would spend more time in a self driving car if I could shower, dress, cook, nap, and do work.
- tyingq 9y ago
  Wait...a car you can shower and cook in?
  - OoooooooO 9y ago
    Sure, why not in the future? I would probably prefer my Dönercopter delivery.
  - sosuke 9y ago
    An RV?
  - oh_sigh 9y ago
    Why not self driving RV? a veritable castle on wheels.
    - tyingq 9y ago
      Not sure about showers and cooking while they are driving.

tyingq 9y ago

I suspect by the time there are enough self driving cars that it lowers drive time, other factors will kick in as well. Automation to that degree would likely have wiped out many other non-driving jobs in the city, or made them such that doing the job remotely was possible.

pmiller2 9y ago

I already commute an hour each way by public transportation. The only benefit a self-driving car could theoretically offer me is that I don't have to deal with other passengers.

jrs235 9y ago
Or extra stops. Or aligning your schedule to the shared vehicles schedule.
hn_throwaway_99 9y ago
Which would be huge, at least for me. I'd love to be able to pull out my laptop and get rid of my "busywork" (e.g. emails, review daily reports, etc.), which would be a hell of a lot easier in a self driving car than, say, the BART.
- EternalData 9y ago
  Interesting subpoint here: people who are able to work remotely are going to add about an hour or perhaps a bit less to their productivity but those who cannot (let's say a hypothetical janitor/sales clerk) will not, further adding a layer of inequality to those who work with their minds versus those who work with their hands. This is all things equal, and assuming that the advent of self-driving cars doesn't also bring a whole new economy/job market.
  - cm2187 9y ago
    I wouldn't overdo the remote working. My experience is that it is terribly inefficient in my business. It's fine at small dose to help people cope with other obligation but I don't see that being the future of office work.
    - majewsky 9y ago
      It depends on the person. Some people are amazingly productive while working from home (I have two such colleagues), while others (e.g. me) are clearly less productive and more easily distracted at home.

daurnimator 9y ago

You usually pay a premium (in real estate/rent) to live near fast/accessible public transport. As self-driving cars are introduced, places that previously had terrible public transport access, yet are still within a 45 min drive of CBDs via driving will have mini-booms.

brightball 9y ago

I am most interested in what self driving RVs will do.

majewsky 9y ago
That would be an interesting alternative for business flights, potentially. Instead of flying from NY to DC and staying in a hotel there for the meeting next day, just hop into the autonomous RV, lay in a course and go to bed.

djyaz1200 9y ago

All the dependencies that make urban density relevant are being eroded by technology. Self driving cars will be one part of a trend that makes remote living a lot more pleasant and popular. Amazon will deliver most of what you need to live (and soon eat). SpaceX is working on low orbit and therefore low latency high speed global internet so you can work and/or get entertainment anywhere. Tesla can sell you solar panels and a battery to power your home. You can do a septic system instead of a sewer hookup. If you insist on gas you could get propane delivered inexpensively. If you want to mingle/meet people you can do that online. Then with a level 5 self driving car you can send your kids to far away schools everyday easily, or work at your "desk" during a long commute in the car. Or say if you want to drive 90 minutes into town for a basketball game that's no big deal if a computer does the thinking while you watch movies in the back. I live in Oregon where I expect a profound impact. There are so many amazing places here that are incredibly beautiful/cheap and within 90 minutes of a major metro area/airport. I think the real driver of this change will be cost, younger people (myself included) are getting priced out of owning a nice home in a major metro area. I'm seriously considering moving to Sweet Home Oregon and building a mansion on acres for half the cost of a modest townhouse in portland. High speed Internet is the missing piece for me.

ghaff 9y ago
It's at least plausible that the current infatuation with mostly a handful of dense urban cores by mostly a certain young educated demographic will end up being a short-term blip. It's pretty recent--which is one of the big reasons for all the issues with housing and transit infrastructure in those areas. It wouldn't surprise me at all if people look back in 20 or 30 years and see migration to the densest urban areas in the US as this temporary aberration.
majewsky 9y ago
> If you want to mingle/meet people you can do that online. There's a huge difference between meeting online and meeting offline. Online might become a venerable substitute for offline if VR/AR technology advances to the point where we can have the full experience of the other people sitting around the same table, i.e. their whole body language etc.

Fricken 9y ago

There was a period where I was commuting in a private coach bus 1.5 hours each way. It was a really nice bus, clean, air conditioned, wifi, reclining seats. Nonetheless, spending 3 hours a day in transit still sucked.

ghaff 9y ago
Yeah. A while back I had a sometimes commute that was about 1.5-2 hours, mostly by train plus a short drive and a short walk. It was somewhat manageable but I would have hated to have done it every day. Yeah, you can read etc. but it's still a big chunk out of your day.