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Yes, there is a point to protesting. This paper used rainfall as a source of exogenous variation to measure the effect of the Tea Party protests. https://acade
by dfabulich 9y ago
Yes, there is a point to protesting. This paper used rainfall as a source of exogenous variation to measure the effect of the Tea Party protests.
https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/128/4/1633/1849540/Do-Political-Protests-Matter-Evidence-from-the-Tea?redirectedFrom=fulltext https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/128/4/1633/184...
Can protests cause political change, or are they merely symptoms of underlying shifts in policy preferences? We address this question by studying the Tea Party movement in the United States, which rose to prominence through coordinated rallies across the country on Tax Day, April 15, 2009. We exploit variation in rainfall on the day of these rallies as an exogenous source of variation in attendance. We show that good weather at this initial, coordinating event had significant consequences for the subsequent local strength of the movement, increased public support for Tea Party positions, and led to more Republican votes in the 2010 midterm elections. Policy making was also affected, as incumbents responded to large protests in their district by voting more conservatively in Congress. Our estimates suggest significant multiplier effects: an additional protester increased the number of Republican votes by a factor well above 1. Together our results show that protests can build political movements that ultimately affect policy making and that they do so by influencing political views rather than solely through the revelation of existing political preferences.
- mjburgess 9y agoThe tea party was very astroturfed at the beginning -- how many of these protests were co-funded by investors in republican campaigns? If funding to protests were correlated with funding to candidates (which in this case, it almost certainly is) then the variable with political consequences is "amount of campaign funding".
- aaron695 9y agoIt was correlated with rainfall.
- mjburgess 9y agoYes, but are they looking at protests in the sense meant in OP? A campaign rally funded and organized as a protest is not a protest. If these were astroturfed then all they tell us that attendance at campaign rallies can have political effects.