These cycles are not as consistent nor as predictable as your comment suggests. Your link and the bloomberg article both mention how cycles have been changing (

These cycles are not as consistent nor as predictable as your comment suggests. Your link and the bloomberg article both mention how cycles have been changing (e.g. lengthening on average recently) and how once important economic correlations of the past continue to break down toward being uncorrelated. There are many reasons for a cycle, some we think we understand, some we clearly do not. Everyone agrees we cannot predict the future. By the way, books are written about cycles, people writes their thesis on this topic, it is difficult to summarize. The short answer is we have a list of things that have caused cycles in the past. And we have a calculation how often and how likely a new cause is to be added to that list (tech bubble was not on the list in the 80s, now it is). From this list of known causes and calculating the odds a new cause will come along, economics try to predict cycle peaks and valleys as best they can. Their track record is atrocious and a joke at best. Despite what is reported in the press sometimes, economics are actually getting worse at analyzing cycles. Ray Dalio is mentioned in a few comments, Dalio does not have a good track record when it comes to macro economics though his hedge fund has performed well in some years (don't believe marketing BS). No one knows how innovation will effect boom and busts. Research on this is heavily manipulated. One can find strong connections between innovation and cycles if you want to AND one can find almost no connection between innovation and cycles. So unfortunately the real answer to this one is "it depends", all else equal (ceteris paribus) if innovation in tech slows it is likely part of many things slowing down and hence the lengthening of cycles we have seen MAY continue (again ceteris paribus). TL;DR pattern is not predictable nor consistent. Tech and innovation has little to no effect except in extreme cases, the pace of innovation should not have a major impact. Demographics and population factors show strong evidence for warranting a majority factor weight. Lastly, analogy: have you heard of yo-yo dieting? How long do most dieters last on a diet before failing that diet? What is the common causes of failing a diet? How long after failing to diet do they try again? Why do some people succeed when dieting on the first try and never regain the weight, why some on the 5th try? why some never? The economy acts just a person trying to yo-yo diet but it's 300 million people making and losing money instead of fat (well also fat).