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> This isn't how it works, because the expected value, in monetary terms, is negative... I once heard a statistics professor explaining he played the lottery.

by mrb 9y ago

> This isn't how it works, because the expected value, in monetary terms, is negative... I once heard a statistics professor explaining he played the lottery. His reason? It was fun. Period. He said one may spend $10 on a movie ticket and be entertained for a few hours, but one would end up $10 poorer with 100% certainty. On the other hand when he spent $10 on a lottery ticket he was entertained for days just thinking of the possibility of winning, and he might end up a lot richer, but it was not a necessary condition for him to enjoy the fun it provides.

Chathamization 9y ago
> On the other hand when he spent $10 on a lottery ticket he was entertained for days just thinking of the possibility of winning With a slightly better imagination he could save the $10 and daydream for days about a close relative/friend winning the lottery and gifting him a substantial chunk of the money.
teddyh 9y ago
That sounds exactly like a smoker “explaining” why they smoke. They claim to enjoy it. In reality, of course, smokers only smoke because it makes them stop feeling the nicotine urge for a short while, i.e. they feel like a normal non-smoker person for a short while. Likewise, anyone could fantasize about getting a windfall of mountains of money from far likelier events, like an unknown relative willing their fortune to you. Sure, it’s unlikely, but it’s more likely than winning the lottery. You don’t need to play the lottery to do that.
- thaumasiotes 9y ago
  > They claim to enjoy it. In reality, of course, smokers only smoke because it makes them stop feeling the nicotine urge for a short while Using this model, it's difficult to explain where new smokers come from.
  - teddyh 9y ago
    The reason people start to smoke are the same reasons people start to drink coffee, or tea, or beer. Nobody likes any of those things when they first try them, but they choose to acquire the taste, for either social reasons and/or because they want the side effect (caffeine or alcohol). In the case of cigarettes, the social effect has been very strong but is declining, and the wanted side effect is illusory, but as long as people still think that they will get something from nicotine, people will start to smoke, or vape, or chew, or snuff, or whatever form it will take in the future.
    - thaumasiotes 9y ago
      http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/11/schizophrenia-no-smoking-gun/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/11/schizophrenia-no-smokin... In general, you're not on firm ground when someone says "I enjoy X" and you say "no, I can tell what you enjoy better than you can".

by mrb 9y ago

Chathamization 9y ago

> On the other hand when he spent $10 on a lottery ticket he was entertained for days just thinking of the possibility of winning With a slightly better imagination he could save the $10 and daydream for days about a close relative/friend winning the lottery and gifting him a substantial chunk of the money.

teddyh 9y ago

That sounds exactly like a smoker “explaining” why they smoke. They claim to enjoy it. In reality, of course, smokers only smoke because it makes them stop feeling the nicotine urge for a short while, i.e. they feel like a normal non-smoker person for a short while. Likewise, anyone could fantasize about getting a windfall of mountains of money from far likelier events, like an unknown relative willing their fortune to you. Sure, it’s unlikely, but it’s more likely than winning the lottery. You don’t need to play the lottery to do that.

thaumasiotes 9y ago
> They claim to enjoy it. In reality, of course, smokers only smoke because it makes them stop feeling the nicotine urge for a short while Using this model, it's difficult to explain where new smokers come from.
- teddyh 9y ago
  The reason people start to smoke are the same reasons people start to drink coffee, or tea, or beer. Nobody likes any of those things when they first try them, but they choose to acquire the taste, for either social reasons and/or because they want the side effect (caffeine or alcohol). In the case of cigarettes, the social effect has been very strong but is declining, and the wanted side effect is illusory, but as long as people still think that they will get something from nicotine, people will start to smoke, or vape, or chew, or snuff, or whatever form it will take in the future.
  - thaumasiotes 9y ago
    http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/11/schizophrenia-no-smoking-gun/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/11/schizophrenia-no-smokin... In general, you're not on firm ground when someone says "I enjoy X" and you say "no, I can tell what you enjoy better than you can".