I find it fascinating that people talk about self-driving cars as though it were a binary thing, like either you have an entire fleet of them or you don't and t

I find it fascinating that people talk about self-driving cars as though it were a binary thing, like either you have an entire fleet of them or you don't and that this happens in all markets all at the same time. Any proper analysis would consider the myriad ways things play out depending on how gradual and uneven self driving cars will come to market. And even if L5 were available tomorrow, it would have to be cheap enough on a unit basis manufacturable at scale to compete with driver income plus cost of a Prius over 3-4 years. In the US the unit economics might already be in favor of an L5 vehicle, but in developing markets that may not yet be the case. Furthermore, you don't just replace entire fleets to service entire economies over night. And even at that point, you need to build out all the infrastructure to support and maintain these vehicles. Gradual changes always favor the incumbents if the incumbent is aware of such changes and planning for them.