5 ms·

Obviously I don't foresee Amazon tanking any time soon, but if/when they do I can't imagine how it'd do anything other than ruin Seattle, just like the exodus o

Obviously I don't foresee Amazon tanking any time soon, but if/when they do I can't imagine how it'd do anything other than ruin Seattle, just like the exodus of automobile manufacturers started the decline of Detroit in the '50s.

samcheng 9y ago
It happened in Seattle already with Boeing's decline in the 70s and 80s. That malaise is what spawned the 'grunge' music scene in the early 90s.
- barsonme 9y ago
  Yep yep yep. I wasn't alive in the '70s and '80s, but that's still a big part of our culture and history up here in the greater Seattle area.
- amcnett 9y ago
  I think that's a bit of a reach. That malaise may have contributed to certain aspects of the conglomeration of groups/sounds that came to be called grunge, but let's not forget the vigorous marketing efforts around it at the time. Economically-speaking, the decline of the timber industry in the Pacific Northwest may have as had as much or more to do with music-impacting unhappiness.
  - barsonme 9y ago
    Especially since a _ton_ of jobs were cut almost at once in the early '90s.
  - samcheng 9y ago
    You're right; the shift away from old-growth timber logging, along with fisheries decline/regulation, all had significant impact as well. We were talking about major employers causing city-wide economic trouble, though. Not sure Weyerhaeuser was as significant an employer in Seattle.
    - banku_brougham 9y ago
      Weyerhauser's HQ was a large property along I-5 between Auburn and Fife. Not really a Seattle phenomenon, especially the logging which happened in the peripheral counties. So i'll place a vote for the Boeing effect gestating the grunge era. It was poor, and it was grungy. Interestingly, Weyerhauser has sold the old HQ and relocated to a downtown Seattle high rise.
- banku_brougham 9y ago
  Its time to watch 'Singles' again. That era is a distant memory.
jonknee 9y ago
On the other hand, the gorgeous scenery and mild weather will always be around. I’d pick up a Post Amazon Condo at Detroit prices in a heart beat.
- LeifCarrotson 9y ago
  The low property values are a part of the problem. When infrastructure is built to transport, feed, house, and otherwise take care of people in a booming industry, and then that industry leaves, that infrastructure doesn't magically downsize itself or continue to work forever. It has holding costs, and it has maintenance costs. A lot of those local costs are paid for by property taxes. And when the condo goes from San Francisco prices to Detroit prices (or sits empty and abandoned), those property taxes drop off. Those maintenance needs apply to the offices and factories of the industry, too. And to the restaurants those employees visit, the malls, dealerships, dealerships, grocery stores, gas stations, and everywhere else they shop at. That Post Amazon Condo you'd like to buy needs maintenance, too. These service industries need money to come in from somewhere. A town can't just pass around the same dollar forever. And when Amazon, or the mining company, or the auto company, or the steel company or whatever industry is actually providing value and bringing in external dollars disappears, the place will slowly die. People will want to continue to live in the booming city they remember, enjoying the gorgeous scenery, even as unemployment skyrockets, savvy businesses leave town, crime rises, and infrastructure rots and rusts. They will call for state aid, and federal aid, but those are just band-aids on the problem that the city's economy is running backwards, just trying to keep up with all the maintenance debt. Michigan is a beautiful place, too. I wouldn't call the weather mild, but it's an amazing place with all four seasons and we Michiganders like that. But the cheap parts of the state are not known for their scenery, they're known as desolate concrete wastelands. It's a hard problem.
asveikau 9y ago
When I worked at Microsoft I couldn't help but think that the glitzy construction on the eastside, especially Bellevue, would also end up abandoned as Microsoft fades. Detroit was the primary example I would think of, but also the 1963 promotional video of Rochester, NY (home of Kodak and Xerox, also where I went to school) reminded me a lot of Bellevue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v5x6qIy4Xc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v5x6qIy4Xc I was pondering all this before Amazon rose to its current stature, and as a former SLU resident in that time period I can say they changed the town. So maybe that's actually an argument that the region is a bit more diversified now.
savanaly 9y ago
When software development goes the way of the car manufacturer in America I'll be really interested to see what replaces it.
taude 9y ago
Seattle already went through this once, back in the early '70s during a crash in the airline market. There was even a rumored billboard put up that said some thing like "when the last person leaves, will someone turn out the lights". This was folklore to me as a child, but I just Googled to see if there was some truth. Yeup, true. [1] [1] http://old.seattletimes.com/special/centennial/november/lights_out.html http://old.seattletimes.com/special/centennial/november/ligh...
- piffey 9y ago
  Population dropped by close to 75,000 people during that period. Wouldn't mind that now... could afford a house.
pkamb 9y ago
"Will the Last Person Leaving SEATTLE — Turn Out the Lights" http://www.historylink.org/File/1287 http://www.historylink.org/File/1287
- visarga 9y ago
  In Eastern Europe the joke is like: "Last Person Leaving COUNTRY — Can unscrew and keep the light bulbs"
bluthru 9y ago
Amazon's work in Seattle doesn't require huge factories and a chain of regional suppliers. If things go bad for Amazon other companies will utilize those people in Seattle.
myth_drannon 9y ago
It happened with RIM in Waterloo,Canada. Of course the scale is not the same, but RIM was the largest employer and was taking other any available office building in the city. When RIM tanked it was not that bad, numerous small startup were started by ex-employees that took over the office space. It's like a tree in a forest, it falls and rots giving nutrients and sun light to the younger trees that otherwise wouldn't be able to grow.

samcheng 9y ago

It happened in Seattle already with Boeing's decline in the 70s and 80s. That malaise is what spawned the 'grunge' music scene in the early 90s.

barsonme 9y ago
Yep yep yep. I wasn't alive in the '70s and '80s, but that's still a big part of our culture and history up here in the greater Seattle area.
amcnett 9y ago
I think that's a bit of a reach. That malaise may have contributed to certain aspects of the conglomeration of groups/sounds that came to be called grunge, but let's not forget the vigorous marketing efforts around it at the time. Economically-speaking, the decline of the timber industry in the Pacific Northwest may have as had as much or more to do with music-impacting unhappiness.
- barsonme 9y ago
  Especially since a _ton_ of jobs were cut almost at once in the early '90s.
- samcheng 9y ago
  You're right; the shift away from old-growth timber logging, along with fisheries decline/regulation, all had significant impact as well. We were talking about major employers causing city-wide economic trouble, though. Not sure Weyerhaeuser was as significant an employer in Seattle.
  - banku_brougham 9y ago
    Weyerhauser's HQ was a large property along I-5 between Auburn and Fife. Not really a Seattle phenomenon, especially the logging which happened in the peripheral counties. So i'll place a vote for the Boeing effect gestating the grunge era. It was poor, and it was grungy. Interestingly, Weyerhauser has sold the old HQ and relocated to a downtown Seattle high rise.
banku_brougham 9y ago
Its time to watch 'Singles' again. That era is a distant memory.

jonknee 9y ago

On the other hand, the gorgeous scenery and mild weather will always be around. I’d pick up a Post Amazon Condo at Detroit prices in a heart beat.

LeifCarrotson 9y ago
The low property values are a part of the problem. When infrastructure is built to transport, feed, house, and otherwise take care of people in a booming industry, and then that industry leaves, that infrastructure doesn't magically downsize itself or continue to work forever. It has holding costs, and it has maintenance costs. A lot of those local costs are paid for by property taxes. And when the condo goes from San Francisco prices to Detroit prices (or sits empty and abandoned), those property taxes drop off. Those maintenance needs apply to the offices and factories of the industry, too. And to the restaurants those employees visit, the malls, dealerships, dealerships, grocery stores, gas stations, and everywhere else they shop at. That Post Amazon Condo you'd like to buy needs maintenance, too. These service industries need money to come in from somewhere. A town can't just pass around the same dollar forever. And when Amazon, or the mining company, or the auto company, or the steel company or whatever industry is actually providing value and bringing in external dollars disappears, the place will slowly die. People will want to continue to live in the booming city they remember, enjoying the gorgeous scenery, even as unemployment skyrockets, savvy businesses leave town, crime rises, and infrastructure rots and rusts. They will call for state aid, and federal aid, but those are just band-aids on the problem that the city's economy is running backwards, just trying to keep up with all the maintenance debt. Michigan is a beautiful place, too. I wouldn't call the weather mild, but it's an amazing place with all four seasons and we Michiganders like that. But the cheap parts of the state are not known for their scenery, they're known as desolate concrete wastelands. It's a hard problem.

asveikau 9y ago

When I worked at Microsoft I couldn't help but think that the glitzy construction on the eastside, especially Bellevue, would also end up abandoned as Microsoft fades. Detroit was the primary example I would think of, but also the 1963 promotional video of Rochester, NY (home of Kodak and Xerox, also where I went to school) reminded me a lot of Bellevue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v5x6qIy4Xc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v5x6qIy4Xc I was pondering all this before Amazon rose to its current stature, and as a former SLU resident in that time period I can say they changed the town. So maybe that's actually an argument that the region is a bit more diversified now.

savanaly 9y ago

When software development goes the way of the car manufacturer in America I'll be really interested to see what replaces it.

taude 9y ago

Seattle already went through this once, back in the early '70s during a crash in the airline market. There was even a rumored billboard put up that said some thing like "when the last person leaves, will someone turn out the lights". This was folklore to me as a child, but I just Googled to see if there was some truth. Yeup, true. [1] [1] http://old.seattletimes.com/special/centennial/november/lights_out.html http://old.seattletimes.com/special/centennial/november/ligh...

piffey 9y ago
Population dropped by close to 75,000 people during that period. Wouldn't mind that now... could afford a house.

pkamb 9y ago

"Will the Last Person Leaving SEATTLE — Turn Out the Lights" http://www.historylink.org/File/1287 http://www.historylink.org/File/1287

visarga 9y ago
In Eastern Europe the joke is like: "Last Person Leaving COUNTRY — Can unscrew and keep the light bulbs"

bluthru 9y ago

Amazon's work in Seattle doesn't require huge factories and a chain of regional suppliers. If things go bad for Amazon other companies will utilize those people in Seattle.

myth_drannon 9y ago

It happened with RIM in Waterloo,Canada. Of course the scale is not the same, but RIM was the largest employer and was taking other any available office building in the city. When RIM tanked it was not that bad, numerous small startup were started by ex-employees that took over the office space. It's like a tree in a forest, it falls and rots giving nutrients and sun light to the younger trees that otherwise wouldn't be able to grow.